Skip to comments.Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily (315-223, wow!)
Posted on 11/02/2012 2:34:59 PM PDT by TonyInOhio
Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama. True, Americans want to think well of their presidents and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president.
But it's also true that most voters oppose Obama's major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery -- Friday's jobs report showed an unemployment uptick.
Also, both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who don't identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney.
That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32 percent, as they did in the 2008 exit poll. But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting -- and about their candidate -- than they were in 2008, and Democrats are less so.
That's been apparent in early or absentee voting, in which Democrats trail their 2008 numbers in target states Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada.
The Obama campaign strategy, from the beginning, has recognized these handicaps, running barrages of early anti-Romney ads in states that Obama carried narrowly. But other states, not so heavily barraged, have come into contention.
Which candidate will get the electoral votes of the target states? I'll go out on a limb and predict them, in ascending order of 2008 Obama percentages -- fully aware that I'm likely to get some wrong.
Indiana (11 electoral votes). Uncontested. Romney.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.
Florida (29). The biggest target state has trended Romney since the Denver debate. I don't see any segment of the electorate favoring Obama more than in 2008, and I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.
Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland's Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don't mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.
Virginia (13). Post-debate polling mildly favors Romney, and early voting is way down in heavily Democratic Arlington, Alexandria, Richmond and Norfolk. Northern Virginia Asians may trend Romney. Romney.
Colorado (9). Unlike 2008, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, and more Republicans than Democrats have voted early. The Republican trend in 2010 was squandered by weak candidates for governor and senator. Not this time. Romney.
Iowa (6). The unexpected Romney endorsements by the Des Moines Register and three other newspapers gave voice to buyer's remorse in a state Obama carried by 10 points. Democrats' traditional margin in early voting has declined. Romney.
Minnesota (10). A surprise last-minute media buy for the Romney campaign. But probably a bridge too far. Obama.
New Hampshire (4). Polls are very tight here. I think superior Republican intensity will prevail. Romney.
Pennsylvania (20). Everyone would have picked Obama two weeks ago. I think higher turnout in pro-coal Western Pennsylvania and higher Republican percentages in the Philadelphia suburbs could produce a surprise. The Romney team evidently thinks so too. Their investment in TV time is too expensive to be a mere feint, and, as this is written, Romney is planning a Sunday event in Bucks County outside Philly. Wobbling on my limb, Romney.
Nevada (6). Democratic early-voting turnout is down from 2008 in Las Vegas' Clark County, 70 percent of the state. But the casino unions' turnout machine on Election Day re-elected an unpopular Harry Reid in 2010, and I think they'll get enough Latinos and Filipinos out this time. Obama.
Wisconsin (10). Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Gov. Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community. But early voting is down in university towns in other states. The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don't see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney.
Oregon (7), New Mexico (5), New Jersey (14). Uncontested. Obama.
Michigan (16). Romney chose Pennsylvania, where there's no auto bailout issue. Obama.
Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.
In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don’t mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory.
This doesn’t even make much sense. There is a good reason predictions aren’t left up to political reporters or insular media types. Pollsters are who should be catching these critical segments of Romney’s coalition.
The stars and stripes is a battle flag, too.
I was guessing 301 to 321 EVs but that is not scientific, just having seen a lot of elections
I agree with him but give Obama NH. 311 EV
He is the best in the business and he is all business.
Thanks polls and Intade got me down today, I pray you and him are right!
I C Q
Thanks. I hope we see lots of him because when he makes the call we’ll know it’s right. He is the Swami of all thing political.
>> 269 is too close <<
For sure. It would mean Romney elected POTUS by the House, and Biden elected VP by the Senate!
I started telling family and freinds they could mark me down for 302-310 a week ago. Barone makes me feel safe.
accounting for cheating, peg it at 299 EV’s
predicting Romney in 2008 was “almost on the money”??
.....fully aware that I’m likely to get some wrong. ......
I think Barone must be getting old to make such a confession and to actually make a prediction. He generally speaks in footnotes. His statements are short with unending foot notes
This is what he should do. Tell us what he knows and leave off the footnotes.
He is at the top of the knowledgeable heap
I predict that on Monday or even Tuesday the polls will tighten up again to about even and then on election night Romney will pull ahead.
Here is something to brighten your day. I mean come on... all of these polls cannot be correct. This is no pro Republican polling outfit here. Let me know what you think.
WaPo ABC Tracker: R49/O48 (D+3)
WaPo ^ | 11/2 | WaPo
Posted on Friday, November 02, 2012 4:18:11 PM by tatown
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2012, among a random national sample of 2,131 adults, including landline and cell phone-only respondents. Results among the sample of 1,535 likely voters have a margin of error of three percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York.
On election night 2004 Barone was on FNC. It was just after 8:00 PM Eastern Time and the exit polling was going big against Bush. The announcers were saying if Bush is losing states like GA then Kerry will be the next president. Barone came on and said, 'Wait a Minute' and proceeded to explain in detail why the exit polls were BS. He was right.
Here is something to think about:
A few people say it will be a big Romney victory.
A lot of people say it will be a close Romney victory.
A lot of people say it will be a close Obama victory.
But, nobody is saying it will be a big Obama victory.
I dont understand why anyone said there was a Sandy Bounce to begin with:
Romney moved UP in WAPO He moved up in PPP National He moved up in CNNs latest Ohio Poll Hes still leading in the necessary states to get to 270 (McCain + Indiana, NC, Virginia, Florida, Ohio + one other state such as Colorado).
The ONLY problem today was some statistical noise in Rasmussen which sent people in a ridiculous tizzy. Just go vote!
I was pretty confident about this race up until today, the Ras poll has me worried, but I think this will break our way you've given me some great data thanks!
Dick Morris changed his mind in the last few hours.
Now he says Sandy has put Obama up.
This is Nate Silver’s second time predicting Presidential elections and he’s relied on to be some guru?? LOL.
That’s awesome thanks! :D
You are most welcome.
Intrade is mostly foreigners.
“Northern Virginia Asians may trend Romney.”
First time I’ve heard this, and it makes perfect sense.
Gotta love Barone.
Google is a powerful research tool.
Except in Monte Carlo the drop is uniformly random; Nate is dorking around with loaded D+~n dice.
He was walking back a lot of it on Charlie Rose. Basically what he's saying now, is that his modeling is merely predictive of the odds of an occurrence based on the D+~n inputs.
Which means he's already taking the cowards way out -- blaming it on the polls, instead of his absurd aggregation of those biased, dated polls. Now featuring Zogby-flavored special secret sauce, apparently.
The other thing I noticed on Charlie Rose, is that this doofus thinks he comes across as likable. So I suspect he believes, like every other narcissistic Millenialist I've ever known, that he'll charm his way out of Tuesday's loss.
The reality is, after the election, the NYeT will bury his azz in C18, and make it clear to him that he's damaged goods.
This is good news...almost the same numbers I came up with fooling around with one of the electorial college maps that allow us peons to make guesses.
In 2004, Bush led Intrade but was only at 55 through 2pm on Election Day. From 3pm until well after 9pm, Intrade went in the tank for Kerry. Those f+++++s got skinned alive.
Yes I’m pretty aware of that. But I like the sense of community here a d the discussions that can arise, sometimes it’s more fun to talk about things.
If it turns out he is right though, he will be one of the most sought after pundits in every future election.He is already that.
Barone came on and said, 'Wait a Minute' and proceeded to explain in detail why the exit polls were BS.I remember that. He went step by step, bell-weather precinct by precinct, explained what was happening and why the polls had not caught it. Made me relax. And at about 9:30 or 10:00pm, it was all over. Fun night.
You have to be kidding.
Since Dick Morris is almost always wrong, that’s a good sign!
The NYT admits that PA is leaning toward Romney. That could be the ball game right there. 20 EV from PA and 10 from WI and you don't need Ohio.
I went over to DUh tonight and the contrast was amazing: here on this site we have people being cautiously optimistic about WMR winning, but over there post after post is already celebrating a zero win. I could NEVER be that certain about a victory until all the votes are counted. Unless they know something that we don’t know :( (widespread voter fraud/tampering)
Do any posts explain the basis for their optimism? Internal polls, exit polls of early voters, etc.?
None, other than Silver’s as far as I could tell.
I think there assurance of zero’s win was all based on their pure unadulterated adulation of zero.
We have a family member who is so adoring of zero that it is almost embarrassing, it borders on sexual (sorry, tmi horrid visualization). She talks about how much she loves him, but it’s not an, “I love chocolate cake.” kind of love, it’s a lovvvvvve kind of thing. Ick. It’s weird that he has such an almost cult-like following.
So maybe that’s where they get their optimism? Hoping that’s all it is.
The optimistic version of my prediction adds Nevada and ME-2 to what Barone says.
Your “optimistic prediction” is exactly the prediction I made even before reading Barone’s column: 322 EVs for Romney, with the 315 that Barone predicted plus NV and ME-02.
Well, I consider myself in good company. I hope we are right. I am too neurotic to be confident.
Have you made your final calls for Senate and House?
My official prediction is 248 Rs in the House (net pickup of 7, assuming that vacant seats belong to the prior incumbent)and 53 Rs in the Senate (net pickup of 6). In the Senate, I have Fischer, Berg, Rehberg, Thompson, Allen, Mandel, Mack, Smith, Flake, Heller and Mourdock winning, but Summers, Scott Brown, McMahon, Akin, Lingle, Hoekstra Wilson and Raese losing.
By mentioning Raese do you think that race will be fairly close? I wrote him off a long time ago.
No, not any closer than the AZ Senate race. But one can never rule out completely a candidate’s chances when his party will be approaching 60% of the presidential vote.
I just noticed that I forgot to mention Kyrillos as a Republican whom I don’t think would win. I certainly did not mean to imply that Kyrillos’s odds of winning are lower than Raese’s—far from it.
Wow, I made my own map last Tuesday on the interactive section of realclearpolitics. My prediction is exactly the same as Barone’s except I don’t think Romney gets Pennsylvania. I had Romney at 295. Great minds think alike.