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Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily (315-223, wow!)
DC Examiner ^ | 11/02/12 | Michael Barone (The Godfather)

Posted on 11/02/2012 2:34:59 PM PDT by TonyInOhio

Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama. True, Americans want to think well of their presidents and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president.

But it's also true that most voters oppose Obama's major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery -- Friday's jobs report showed an unemployment uptick.

Also, both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who don't identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney.

That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32 percent, as they did in the 2008 exit poll. But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting -- and about their candidate -- than they were in 2008, and Democrats are less so.

That's been apparent in early or absentee voting, in which Democrats trail their 2008 numbers in target states Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada.

The Obama campaign strategy, from the beginning, has recognized these handicaps, running barrages of early anti-Romney ads in states that Obama carried narrowly. But other states, not so heavily barraged, have come into contention.

Which candidate will get the electoral votes of the target states? I'll go out on a limb and predict them, in ascending order of 2008 Obama percentages -- fully aware that I'm likely to get some wrong.

Indiana (11 electoral votes). Uncontested. Romney.

North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.

Florida (29). The biggest target state has trended Romney since the Denver debate. I don't see any segment of the electorate favoring Obama more than in 2008, and I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.

Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland's Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don't mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.

Virginia (13). Post-debate polling mildly favors Romney, and early voting is way down in heavily Democratic Arlington, Alexandria, Richmond and Norfolk. Northern Virginia Asians may trend Romney. Romney.

Colorado (9). Unlike 2008, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, and more Republicans than Democrats have voted early. The Republican trend in 2010 was squandered by weak candidates for governor and senator. Not this time. Romney.

Iowa (6). The unexpected Romney endorsements by the Des Moines Register and three other newspapers gave voice to buyer's remorse in a state Obama carried by 10 points. Democrats' traditional margin in early voting has declined. Romney.

Minnesota (10). A surprise last-minute media buy for the Romney campaign. But probably a bridge too far. Obama.

New Hampshire (4). Polls are very tight here. I think superior Republican intensity will prevail. Romney.

Pennsylvania (20). Everyone would have picked Obama two weeks ago. I think higher turnout in pro-coal Western Pennsylvania and higher Republican percentages in the Philadelphia suburbs could produce a surprise. The Romney team evidently thinks so too. Their investment in TV time is too expensive to be a mere feint, and, as this is written, Romney is planning a Sunday event in Bucks County outside Philly. Wobbling on my limb, Romney.

Nevada (6). Democratic early-voting turnout is down from 2008 in Las Vegas' Clark County, 70 percent of the state. But the casino unions' turnout machine on Election Day re-elected an unpopular Harry Reid in 2010, and I think they'll get enough Latinos and Filipinos out this time. Obama.

Wisconsin (10). Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Gov. Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community. But early voting is down in university towns in other states. The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don't see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney.

Oregon (7), New Mexico (5), New Jersey (14). Uncontested. Obama.

Michigan (16). Romney chose Pennsylvania, where there's no auto bailout issue. Obama.

Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: mittmentum; prediction; victory
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To: TonyInOhio

In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don’t mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory.

This doesn’t even make much sense. There is a good reason predictions aren’t left up to political reporters or insular media types. Pollsters are who should be catching these critical segments of Romney’s coalition.


51 posted on 11/02/2012 4:15:00 PM PDT by erlayman
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To: Arthurio

The stars and stripes is a battle flag, too.

Nuclear Tshaicovski
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GydJiD7v76w&feature=related


52 posted on 11/02/2012 4:19:27 PM PDT by combat_boots (The Lion of Judah cometh. Hallelujah. Gloria Patri, Filio et Spiritui Sancto.)
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To: TonyInOhio
HOLY GUACAMOLE ! this seals it for me

I was guessing 301 to 321 EVs but that is not scientific, just having seen a lot of elections

53 posted on 11/02/2012 4:20:04 PM PDT by WalterSkinner ( In Memory of My Father--WWII Vet and Patriot 1926-2007)
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To: TonyInOhio

I agree with him but give Obama NH. 311 EV


54 posted on 11/02/2012 4:21:21 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Obama didn't fix it!)
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To: erod

He is the best in the business and he is all business.

LLS


55 posted on 11/02/2012 4:21:22 PM PDT by LibLieSlayer (OUR GOVERNMENT AND PRESS ARE NO LONGER TRUSTWORTHY OR DESERVING OF RESPECT!)
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To: LibLieSlayer

Thanks polls and Intade got me down today, I pray you and him are right!


56 posted on 11/02/2012 4:23:06 PM PDT by erod (I'm a Chicagoan till Chicago ends...)
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To: sissyjane

CQ
I C Q


57 posted on 11/02/2012 4:25:40 PM PDT by combat_boots (The Lion of Judah cometh. Hallelujah. Gloria Patri, Filio et Spiritui Sancto.)
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To: HateBill

Thanks. I hope we see lots of him because when he makes the call we’ll know it’s right. He is the Swami of all thing political.


58 posted on 11/02/2012 4:27:51 PM PDT by Mase (Save me from the people who would save me from myself!)
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To: Arthurio; Gay State Conservative

>> 269 is too close <<

For sure. It would mean Romney elected POTUS by the House, and Biden elected VP by the Senate!


59 posted on 11/02/2012 4:28:20 PM PDT by Hawthorn
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To: erod
We are... I feel it in my bones. The only way that obama can win is to depress Mitt's voter turnout... and the only way to do that is to demoralize them so that they do not vote... and too many here are falling for it. Look at the crowds... clinton, obama and biden were in NINE states today... and Mitt is drawing THREE times the number of attendees in Ohio tonight... than the grand total of everyone that came out to see all three dim demons today. Hurricane Sandy is killing obama with all of the bad news coming out of the NE. This has blown up on obama and christie worse than the War on Women did.

LLS

60 posted on 11/02/2012 4:29:10 PM PDT by LibLieSlayer (OUR GOVERNMENT AND PRESS ARE NO LONGER TRUSTWORTHY OR DESERVING OF RESPECT!)
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To: Mike Darancette

I started telling family and freinds they could mark me down for 302-310 a week ago. Barone makes me feel safe.


61 posted on 11/02/2012 4:30:35 PM PDT by KC Burke (Plain Conservative opinions and common sense correction for thirteen years.)
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To: TonyInOhio

accounting for cheating, peg it at 299 EV’s


62 posted on 11/02/2012 4:32:18 PM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: Arthurio

predicting Romney in 2008 was “almost on the money”??


63 posted on 11/02/2012 4:33:51 PM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: TonyInOhio

.....fully aware that I’m likely to get some wrong. ......

I think Barone must be getting old to make such a confession and to actually make a prediction. He generally speaks in footnotes. His statements are short with unending foot notes

This is what he should do. Tell us what he knows and leave off the footnotes.

He is at the top of the knowledgeable heap


64 posted on 11/02/2012 4:37:30 PM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... Present failure and impending death yield irrational action))
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To: LibLieSlayer
You are so right. I took a drive shortly after my post on this forum, and I realized that all these polls have an agenda and the momentum is on our side. Romney is getting big crowds and this time we lead in voter registration and we are the broken glass voters.

I predict that on Monday or even Tuesday the polls will tighten up again to about even and then on election night Romney will pull ahead.

65 posted on 11/02/2012 4:44:33 PM PDT by erod (I'm a Chicagoan till Chicago ends...)
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To: erod

Here is something to brighten your day. I mean come on... all of these polls cannot be correct. This is no pro Republican polling outfit here. Let me know what you think.

LLS

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2953980/posts

WaPo ABC Tracker: R49/O48 (D+3)

WaPo ^ | 11/2 | WaPo

Posted on Friday, November 02, 2012 4:18:11 PM by tatown
R49/O48

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
________________________________________

Washington Post-ABC News Poll

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2012, among a random national sample of 2,131 adults, including landline and cell phone-only respondents. Results among the sample of 1,535 likely voters have a margin of error of three percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York.


66 posted on 11/02/2012 4:49:53 PM PDT by LibLieSlayer (OUR GOVERNMENT AND PRESS ARE NO LONGER TRUSTWORTHY OR DESERVING OF RESPECT!)
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To: erod
What kind of prediction record does Barone have? Just curious.

On election night 2004 Barone was on FNC. It was just after 8:00 PM Eastern Time and the exit polling was going big against Bush. The announcers were saying if Bush is losing states like GA then Kerry will be the next president. Barone came on and said, 'Wait a Minute' and proceeded to explain in detail why the exit polls were BS. He was right.

67 posted on 11/02/2012 5:01:52 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Obama didn't fix it!)
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To: TNCMAXQ
He and Dick Morris are about the only ones saying Romney wins by a large margin.

Here is something to think about:
A few people say it will be a big Romney victory.
A lot of people say it will be a close Romney victory.
A lot of people say it will be a close Obama victory.
But, nobody is saying it will be a big Obama victory.

68 posted on 11/02/2012 5:11:19 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Obama didn't fix it!)
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To: LibLieSlayer
Made me feel way better. I think the Sandy bounce will dissipate and I think the east coast is going to be real bad this weekend and that will reflect poorly on Obama. This comment on that thread also made me feel good:

I don’t understand why anyone said there was a Sandy Bounce to begin with:

Romney moved UP in WAPO He moved up in PPP National He moved up in CNN’s latest Ohio Poll He’s still leading in the necessary states to get to 270 (McCain + Indiana, NC, Virginia, Florida, Ohio + one other state such as Colorado).

The ONLY problem today was some statistical noise in Rasmussen which sent people in a ridiculous tizzy. Just go vote!

I was pretty confident about this race up until today, the Ras poll has me worried, but I think this will break our way you've given me some great data thanks!

69 posted on 11/02/2012 5:11:56 PM PDT by erod (I'm a Chicagoan till Chicago ends...)
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To: Mike Darancette

Dick Morris changed his mind in the last few hours.

Now he says Sandy has put Obama up.


70 posted on 11/02/2012 5:12:27 PM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: IsaacDian

This is Nate Silver’s second time predicting Presidential elections and he’s relied on to be some guru?? LOL.


71 posted on 11/02/2012 5:13:18 PM PDT by ironman
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To: Mike Darancette

That’s awesome thanks! :D


72 posted on 11/02/2012 5:13:46 PM PDT by erod (I'm a Chicagoan till Chicago ends...)
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To: erod

You are most welcome.

LLS


73 posted on 11/02/2012 5:16:40 PM PDT by LibLieSlayer (OUR GOVERNMENT AND PRESS ARE NO LONGER TRUSTWORTHY OR DESERVING OF RESPECT!)
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To: erod
Thanks polls and Intade got me down today, I pray you and him are right!

Intrade is mostly foreigners.

74 posted on 11/02/2012 5:17:13 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Obama didn't fix it!)
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To: TonyInOhio

“Northern Virginia Asians may trend Romney.”

First time I’ve heard this, and it makes perfect sense.

Gotta love Barone.


75 posted on 11/02/2012 5:20:20 PM PDT by Senator Goldwater
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To: TonyInOhio


Vote Romney/Ryan

76 posted on 11/02/2012 5:23:30 PM PDT by MEG33 (O Lord, Guide Our Nation)
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To: erod

Google is a powerful research tool.


77 posted on 11/02/2012 5:43:09 PM PDT by billhilly
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To: IsaacDian
"They aren’t basing it on some fatally flawed monte carlo simulator that I could have built in 10th grade (read: Nate Silver)"

Except in Monte Carlo the drop is uniformly random; Nate is dorking around with loaded D+~n dice.

He was walking back a lot of it on Charlie Rose. Basically what he's saying now, is that his modeling is merely predictive of the odds of an occurrence based on the D+~n inputs.

Which means he's already taking the cowards way out -- blaming it on the polls, instead of his absurd aggregation of those biased, dated polls. Now featuring Zogby-flavored special secret sauce, apparently.

The other thing I noticed on Charlie Rose, is that this doofus thinks he comes across as likable. So I suspect he believes, like every other narcissistic Millenialist I've ever known, that he'll charm his way out of Tuesday's loss.

The reality is, after the election, the NYeT will bury his azz in C18, and make it clear to him that he's damaged goods.

78 posted on 11/02/2012 5:51:15 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA, NH = 285EV)
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To: TonyInOhio

This is good news...almost the same numbers I came up with fooling around with one of the electorial college maps that allow us peons to make guesses.


79 posted on 11/02/2012 5:54:08 PM PDT by Cuttnhorse
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To: Mike Darancette
"Intrade is mostly foreigners."

Exactly.

In 2004, Bush led Intrade but was only at 55 through 2pm on Election Day. From 3pm until well after 9pm, Intrade went in the tank for Kerry. Those f+++++s got skinned alive.

80 posted on 11/02/2012 6:04:07 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA, NH = 285EV)
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To: billhilly

Yes I’m pretty aware of that. But I like the sense of community here a d the discussions that can arise, sometimes it’s more fun to talk about things.


81 posted on 11/02/2012 6:07:45 PM PDT by erod (I'm a Chicagoan till Chicago ends...)
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To: HateBill
Are you sure she didn't say "See you next Tuesday"?
82 posted on 11/02/2012 6:12:42 PM PDT by Erasmus (Zwischen des Teufels und des tiefen, blauen Meers)
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To: TNCMAXQ
If it turns out he is right though, he will be one of the most sought after pundits in every future election.
He is already that.
83 posted on 11/02/2012 7:07:41 PM PDT by Tennessean4Bush (An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. A pessimist fears this is true.)
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To: Mike Darancette
Barone came on and said, 'Wait a Minute' and proceeded to explain in detail why the exit polls were BS.
I remember that. He went step by step, bell-weather precinct by precinct, explained what was happening and why the polls had not caught it. Made me relax. And at about 9:30 or 10:00pm, it was all over. Fun night.
84 posted on 11/02/2012 7:13:28 PM PDT by Tennessean4Bush (An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. A pessimist fears this is true.)
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To: GeronL

You have to be kidding.


85 posted on 11/02/2012 7:15:13 PM PDT by Tennessean4Bush (An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. A pessimist fears this is true.)
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To: GeronL

Since Dick Morris is almost always wrong, that’s a good sign!


86 posted on 11/02/2012 7:19:17 PM PDT by B Knotts (Just another Tenther)
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To: Qwackertoo
I’m buying be a bottle of wine for election night.

Funny you should say that...my agenda on Tuesday includes going to vote early AM, then off to the store for a bottle of champagne to celebrate. The champagne will be chilled nicely and ready for toasting once it's over-even if it's early morning. I plan on staying up and awake until it's all in the bag!
87 posted on 11/02/2012 8:58:12 PM PDT by gimme1ibertee (If you want to kick a tiger in the ass, you better have a plan for dealing with his teeth.)
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To: onyx

Buuump!


88 posted on 11/02/2012 9:01:01 PM PDT by Alamo-Girl
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To: B Knotts
Since Dick Morris is almost always wrong, that’s a good sign!

The NYT admits that PA is leaning toward Romney. That could be the ball game right there. 20 EV from PA and 10 from WI and you don't need Ohio.

89 posted on 11/02/2012 10:07:07 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Obama didn't fix it!)
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To: TonyInOhio; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; ...

Poll ping.


90 posted on 11/02/2012 10:13:46 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: IsaacDian

I went over to DUh tonight and the contrast was amazing: here on this site we have people being cautiously optimistic about WMR winning, but over there post after post is already celebrating a zero win. I could NEVER be that certain about a victory until all the votes are counted. Unless they know something that we don’t know :( (widespread voter fraud/tampering)


91 posted on 11/03/2012 1:22:13 AM PDT by Reddy (B.O. stinks)
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To: Reddy
I went over to DUh tonight and the contrast was amazing: here on this site we have people being cautiously optimistic about WMR winning, but over there post after post is already celebrating a zero win.

Do any posts explain the basis for their optimism? Internal polls, exit polls of early voters, etc.?

92 posted on 11/03/2012 1:46:06 AM PDT by thecodont
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To: thecodont

None, other than Silver’s as far as I could tell.

I think there assurance of zero’s win was all based on their pure unadulterated adulation of zero.

We have a family member who is so adoring of zero that it is almost embarrassing, it borders on sexual (sorry, tmi horrid visualization). She talks about how much she loves him, but it’s not an, “I love chocolate cake.” kind of love, it’s a lovvvvvve kind of thing. Ick. It’s weird that he has such an almost cult-like following.

So maybe that’s where they get their optimism? Hoping that’s all it is.


93 posted on 11/04/2012 2:15:06 PM PST by Reddy (B.O. stinks)
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To: randita; AuH2ORepublican; GOPsterinMA; InterceptPoint; justiceseeker93

The optimistic version of my prediction adds Nevada and ME-2 to what Barone says.


94 posted on 11/05/2012 4:07:21 AM PST by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: Impy

Your “optimistic prediction” is exactly the prediction I made even before reading Barone’s column: 322 EVs for Romney, with the 315 that Barone predicted plus NV and ME-02.


95 posted on 11/05/2012 4:18:53 AM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

Well, I consider myself in good company. I hope we are right. I am too neurotic to be confident.

Have you made your final calls for Senate and House?


96 posted on 11/05/2012 4:38:25 AM PST by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: Impy

My official prediction is 248 Rs in the House (net pickup of 7, assuming that vacant seats belong to the prior incumbent)and 53 Rs in the Senate (net pickup of 6). In the Senate, I have Fischer, Berg, Rehberg, Thompson, Allen, Mandel, Mack, Smith, Flake, Heller and Mourdock winning, but Summers, Scott Brown, McMahon, Akin, Lingle, Hoekstra Wilson and Raese losing.


97 posted on 11/05/2012 5:39:52 AM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

By mentioning Raese do you think that race will be fairly close? I wrote him off a long time ago.


98 posted on 11/05/2012 5:49:07 AM PST by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: Impy

No, not any closer than the AZ Senate race. But one can never rule out completely a candidate’s chances when his party will be approaching 60% of the presidential vote.

I just noticed that I forgot to mention Kyrillos as a Republican whom I don’t think would win. I certainly did not mean to imply that Kyrillos’s odds of winning are lower than Raese’s—far from it.


99 posted on 11/05/2012 6:09:51 AM PST by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: TonyInOhio

Wow, I made my own map last Tuesday on the interactive section of realclearpolitics. My prediction is exactly the same as Barone’s except I don’t think Romney gets Pennsylvania. I had Romney at 295. Great minds think alike.


100 posted on 11/05/2012 6:16:29 AM PST by Pappy Smear (Steve King for Congress!)
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