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Rasmussen Party Id: Republicans +5.8 (All Time Record)
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 11/05/2012 | Scott Rasmussen

Posted on 11/05/2012 9:22:53 AM PST by nhwingut

Oct 2012: Republican: 39.1% Democrat: 33.3% Other: 27.5% (R+5.8%)

Sep 2012: Republican: 36.8% Democrat: 34.2% Other: 29.0% (R+2.6%)

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; partyid; polls
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To: trappedincanuckistan

When I posted that DU touted PEW poll yesterday, it may have looked like some hyperventilating. However, I wanted to show the internals which really favored Romney, and the difference between the headline of registered voters O 50% R 47% v. likely voters, 0 48% R 45%, and again, Obama doesn’t make it to 50% with like voters.

-PEW over-weighted women voters v. men voters by 8%

-PEW showed Indies breaking for Romney - 49% to 0 37%.

-PEW as usual over-weighted Dems like the rest of the Dem media pollsters.

PEW is also run by Madeleine Albright who as we know was Billy Clinton’s Secretary of State. So I know they are biased big time.


101 posted on 11/05/2012 11:26:48 AM PST by Red Steel
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To: Fresh Wind
"If this is true, how can Rasmussen have the election at R+1? That makes no sense."

Exactly. If half the independents are going for Obama, and Obama pulls 85% of Dems, Romney would have to be at 65% with Republicans. Nutty Numbers.

102 posted on 11/05/2012 11:28:41 AM PST by cookcounty ("When I speak, I say what I mean and I mean what I say!" ---Joe Biden, 10/11/2012)
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To: AaronInCarolina

Good link, thanks.

This explains a lot as to why Rasmussen is using a D+ model. You have to go with what has been historically accurate....now, if by some miracle the exit polls show R+ this year, it’ll be a more difficult job for pollsters in 2016.

Of course, it makes sense that more Ds show up in exit polls if it is true that Ds are more prone to talking to people...while Rs won’t.


103 posted on 11/05/2012 11:29:05 AM PST by SoFloFreeper
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To: AaronInCarolina

Good link, thanks.

This explains a lot as to why Rasmussen is using a D+ model. You have to go with what has been historically accurate....now, if by some miracle the exit polls show R+ this year, it’ll be a more difficult job for pollsters in 2016.

Of course, it makes sense that more Ds show up in exit polls if it is true that Ds are more prone to talking to people...while Rs won’t.


104 posted on 11/05/2012 11:30:07 AM PST by SoFloFreeper
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To: Raycpa

Nate Silver - BWAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHA! (It’s going to be better tomorrow - Silver, the NY Slimes, Wash. Compost, and PMSNBC all in one night...exploding (talking, liberal) heads...


105 posted on 11/05/2012 11:30:33 AM PST by SeattleBruce (Tea Party like it's 1773! Repeal the Federal Reserve Act of 1913! Pray 2 Chronicles 7:14!)
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To: Red Steel

Ahahaha you were laying in the weeds my friend!!!!!!!!!


106 posted on 11/05/2012 11:33:41 AM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: Sarah Barracuda

I’d rather go in with low expectations. That way if it’s bad news tomorrow, I’ll be ready for it. And if it’s good news, it’ll be an even bigger rush of excitement. Any negativity I feel in advance of the election is mitigated by the fact that it’s still an uncertain outcome.

So either it’s slightly unhappy now followed by either a big rush or a mild crash tomorrow...

Or it’s slightly happy now followed by either a big crash or a mild rush tomorrow...


107 posted on 11/05/2012 11:35:12 AM PST by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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To: LS; Ravi; InterceptPoint; tatown; Perdogg; SoftwareEngineer; ConservativeGuy; ConservativeDude
Check out the accuracy of Rasmussen's party id to turnout...


108 posted on 11/05/2012 11:40:56 AM PST by nhwingut (Get out & Vote as if your life was on the line. Because it is.)
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To: who knows what evil?

If I wore a Chick-Fil-A T-shirt to vote, would it be considered partisan campaigning within a polling place?


109 posted on 11/05/2012 11:41:45 AM PST by Brookhaven (The Democratic Party has become the Beclowning Party)
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To: A_Former_Democrat

I think a lot of independents and Republicans have held back in their support because they weren’t sure Mitt could make it to the end in this climate. I think the enthusiasm is newly found respect and pure glee. I know I’m as impressed as all get out, and I’ve always liked Mitt. He has whipped the media and now it’s time to take it to Obama.


110 posted on 11/05/2012 11:43:59 AM PST by des
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To: LS; Ravi; InterceptPoint; tatown; Perdogg; nhwingut; ConservativeGuy; ConservativeDude; ...

Despite RAS saying that he thinks the final turnout will be D/R/I of 39/37/24 (and I disagree) it turns out that for the full week ending SUN 11/04 he was using a D+4 sample!

No wonder his Republicans for Romney number was low

For those of you that have subscriptions:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/platinum/full_week_crosstabs/crosstabs_full_week_crosstabs_october_29_november_4_2012

Also, it is clear that for the full week, the Governor loses one point due to rounding. The “Leaning Romney” number is shown a 0, which is why the poll is R:49 O:48

However 1% of whites (74% of sample) lean Romney. But that got rounded down

BOTTOM LINE: Scott Rasmussen believes that in the general populace Republicans outnumber Democrats by 6% (as per his October release)

However, he believes that on Election Day, we will get a D+2 sample

ON TOP OF THAT, he polls with a D+4 sample!!


111 posted on 11/05/2012 11:45:03 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
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To: Fresh Wind

Because Rasmussen does not vary his sample based on his party identification results. I don’t understand why he doesn’t, but he doesn’t.


112 posted on 11/05/2012 11:45:29 AM PST by Personal Responsibility (In times of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act - Orwell)
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To: nhwingut
The repudiation of Ubama is going to be of historic proportions.

And there is nothing that the Criminal Organization Formerly Known as ACORN can do about it, because they can't cheat enough to make a difference.

113 posted on 11/05/2012 11:48:42 AM PST by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the psychopath.)
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To: nhwingut

Interesting. October 2012 closely resembles October 2008, except Republicans and Democrats have changed places.


114 posted on 11/05/2012 11:49:50 AM PST by Cap Huff
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To: SoftwareEngineer
However, he believes that on Election Day, we will get a D+2 sample...

That's because he is presuming that all the illegal voters are Democrat.

115 posted on 11/05/2012 11:54:39 AM PST by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the psychopath.)
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To: nhwingut
To all those who were wringing their hands about the polls, there were many on FR who were telling you to be patient, the truth would come out-and here it is.

The polls have been based on false assumptions to keep an appearance of it being close.

This is why they know the GOP isn't going to lose the Congress!

Tomorrow is going to be a great day as millions of Americans rise up and retake this nation from the Marxists who have controlled it for the last 4 years.

116 posted on 11/05/2012 12:00:42 PM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: nhwingut
To all those who were wringing their hands about the polls, there were many on FR who were telling you to be patient, the truth would come out-and here it is.

The polls have been based on false assumptions to keep an appearance of it being close.

This is why they know the GOP isn't going to lose the Congress!

Tomorrow is going to be a great day as millions of Americans rise up and retake this nation from the Marxists who have controlled it for the last 4 years.

117 posted on 11/05/2012 12:02:19 PM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: 73nole
Don’t know if thats the case but just saying.........how else to you explain 12% Republicans voting for Obama?

I've met them in PA. They're nominal Republicans. Maybe Rockefeller or Bloomberg Republicans. They're Republican because their parents were and they just "see" themselves that way. But their views are mostly liberal. They're likely to have voted for Ron Paul in the primary. They may have succumbed to peer pressure over the years from being in a heavily Democrat region where they were told they were "stupid" if they supported Bush. It also may be a form of "soft" rebelling against their parents votes.

118 posted on 11/05/2012 12:04:02 PM PST by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

I guess Rasmussen has to keep the numbers close to get you guys curious enough about the internals to become platinum members of his site.


119 posted on 11/05/2012 12:06:43 PM PST by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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To: Windflier

“Rasmussen says 12% of Republicans claim they are voting for Obama.”

I bet 1/2 of them are Democrats and liberal indie Obuggery sympathizers who lied that they were GOP voters.


120 posted on 11/05/2012 12:06:46 PM PST by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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