Posted on 03/01/2013 6:44:22 AM PST by dennisw
Trying to focus on the markets for today and each day and the economic news
A number of people have talked about such a thread. Lets see how it goes. This is where you can impart some investment wisdom to your fellow
freepers. You can vent about the big one that got away. You can chime in how Obama is out to wreck American capitalism.
If you see another FR economic thread you like and want to link to it here, please do
Post your favorite economic site links. Your favorite precious metals blogs and sites
Apmex.com is a solid place with good reputation to buy precious metals Kitco is a good site for charts and other precious metals information
Ping list -- on or off let me know here or via freep-mail. If I missed you then Freep-mail me
PING
Today it’s sell high and buy low.
POMO schedule released yesterday. Anticipated levels are about half of what was allocated for Jan and Feb
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
Is today January 1st or March 1st?
This market is having a TOUGH time pushing through the highs... Third time we’ve been here. The previous two resulted in BIG corrections.
Dollar is strengthening against other currencies... Gold & Silver are in LONG TERM declines, VIX is increasing.... we’re at a turning point, but... Which way??
I just don’t know. I’m sitting at 50% cash, down from 100% invested a month ago. I’ve gotta see S&P above 1550 for awhile before I believe we can move higher from here.
May take an SDS position in the next week or two, if we’re still stuck here and no resolution from Washington..
As a long long time apple bear (since July 2012), I now pronounce aapl suitable to try to bottom pick.
If you back out apple’s cash, you get a market cap only slightly above samsung which means samsung is still the better buy, but it is very difficult to trade samsung in the US.
I also think bbry is a better buy than apple.
I’m not real bullish on apple. I only say that the bleeding has probably ended or is close to an end.
“This market is having a TOUGH time pushing through the highs... Third time we’ve been here. The previous two resulted in BIG corrections.
“Dollar is strengthening against other currencies... Gold & Silver are in LONG TERM declines, VIX is increasing.... we’re at a turning point, but... Which way??”
Please take my comments constructively. Beware of what your mind is telling you...in this case. I myself don’t agree with any of those stmts, except the VIX, which is pretty obvious, but when the VIX is ultra depressed, down moves generate spikes and those do not necessarily come off. If you are looking for a moment to buy, you WANT a high-VIX, high-fear moment. I believe that if you buy the close on any day the SP is down at least 15 pts, preferably 20, you’ll win 85% of the time. YOU SAW THIS the previous big-down day when the last 30-40 of DJIA dump occurred at the very end of the day. That capitulative moment, when stuff is being dumped over margin calls and raw fear, that is when you buy. This market? Feh. No fear, not on an historical basis.
“I just don’t know. I’m sitting at 50% cash, down from 100% invested a month ago. I’ve gotta see S&P above 1550 for awhile before I believe we can move higher from here.”
OK.
“May take an SDS position in the next week or two, if we’re still stuck here and no resolution from Washington..
Do NOT do this, please, trust me, even though you don’t know me. You will regret it. Please do not even think of SDS as a “position”. SDS and other doubles erode viciously, and folks who buy them as turbo-shorts get hosed, badly. The only way you make money on these doubles is if you happen to catch a three day move where the market moves all those days in your favor, short or long. Since the market NEVER moves three days red in a row any more, I believe you cannot own this. Please read up on how the mathematics of these doubles will grind your account into dirt. The maximum time you can own these is one week and if it hasn’t worked in that time, sell it with no tears because you were wrong.
Anyway, I’m just reacting to a few of your comments which are every bit as valid as my opinions, but watch it with those double etfs. If you want to short the market, short SSO, then, the horrible erosion would work in your favor. But that is also problematical because depending on your broker it goes in and out of hard-to-borrow a lot and you may be forcibly bought in. I would call these fairly sophisticated pro trading tools and amateurs playing with them usually pay for the education. Do not do.
I respectfully disagree. First look at the chart on 2X or 3X short. Ain't pretty is it? Top left to bottom right. But I have made money on these. How? The maximum time you can hold these is hours. maybe a couple of days. I will sometimes buy on Friday afternoon to hold until Monday morning if "news" is expected. So you can hold it . . . like radioactive Kryptonite. Sell it if it starts to tank. But sometimes the market starts to tank and you have to strike quick to get in and quicker to get out.
Yes, but the OP did not seem to me to be that rapid a trader. We agree that holding these for more than a few days, at most, is hazardous.
I should have pinged you on post #10 as well. I wouldn’t take a “position” on SDS. It’s a trade only and a very very fast one at times. Good luck.
All we can do is to warn them. Their money, their choice. You start burning your hands on a hot stove it don’t take long to learn.
Buy high and sell higher. IOW buy on an upswing such as don’t buy AAPL until it hits an upswing
thanks!!! in UK it is the correct date
Thanks... I will. I certainly do NOT consider myself an expert investor.. far from it. I'm just a somewhat economically savvy engineer, trying to maintain a little something for retirement in 10 years...
That said, I do like to get "facts" correct. I suppose we could quibble about the meaning of "long term"... but, Gold is at the same level it was 18 months ago.. and, has been declining pretty steadily for the past 5 months.... that seem to be a trend to me.
Silver is in an even longer decline... at same price it was 26 months ago, and has been declining since it's blow-off top in early 2011... nearly two years ago.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index has been trending up, also since mid 2011.. and has moved up faster in the past month.
10 yr Bond Yields had been increasing since around July, but.. have moved down in the past few weeks.... and, are still below 2%. That's not a very bullish indication to me? So.... why do you disagree with my other statements?? Oh.. and yes, as the market has approached this 14,100 level, it's sputtering and becoming more volatile... and, DID INDEED have major corrections after hitting these levels last time...
So... really...where was I incorrect? Is it interpretation? Or, are my facts wrong?
As for SDS... I have used it a few times in the past year or two, as a hedge when I get nervous, and don't want (or can't) move out of mutual funds. I guess I've been lucky, because.. I typically haven't held it more than a week or two... just at times when I'm unsure of which way we're going... like now. But, I'm not bearish enough, yet, to do it... just was thinking about. I'll look for another way.
Greatly appreciate your input...
No fear?? HAH! I have TONS of it. I can't... WON'T go through 2008 again... one sign of not moving through this level, and, I'm burying money in the back yard again... :-)
I’m not quibbling w/your facts per se; I just wasn’t sure of your implied “....thus I will take this/these actions”.
I am a 45 year holder of silver, so 5 months isn’t that big a deal....for me. During that time, I have sold silver at $8, $18, $29, and $39, where I sold a lot. I only regret the $8. But that silver I bought for $4.50, so, there you go. I have no great enthusiasm for buying new PMs here for a brand new investor, but I can’t object to a periodic dca nibble approach on it for a LT’er, and for me, I have massive price protection with 000’s of oz I own at probably $15. I can buy a few K worth of silver with no fear because it just goes into a big pile. For the moment, I am just trading SLV because the spreads are not so punitive as they are on the physical.
In general, I agree with your caution. IMO stocks are near their potential highs...maybe we within 2-5% of a secular high. But I do not think the downside is all that much bigger. You really have to look hard for special situations.
I’ve just come to realize that in general, it’s preferable to be a complacent or disinterested long with protective stops under the market than a pessimistic short with multiple bruises, having been gouged by every WTF rally from hell taking thousands out my account.
It is priced extremely low and I would think it could be a turnaround stock if the main street economy starts to recover.
Last quarter's earnings were positive.
Two words. Dead Money.
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