Posted on 08/05/2014 5:50:07 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
I met a historian once out of UC Davis who provided me with compelling evidence that the what killed people in Europe in the 1500’s was actually a strain of Ebola, and not a flu. People died quick, hemorrhaged a lot, and it killed a lot of people, but eventually burned itself out.
He went back to the diaries of the medical folks of the day and correlated the symptoms. Sure sounded more like Ebola than something else.
Scary.
Cuh-rap! What about all the folks who have to fly, for their jobs? Yikes!
Skype?
It’s gone exponential. Hard.
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Ebola_Outbreak_2014.svg&lang=en
Follow the medical experts’ families self evacuating to ‘safer’ ground.
“We are one week away from panic mode.”
I agree....
H'mmm, tetrodotoxin. If my hazy memory serves me correctly, cone shells, the blue-ringed octopus (via bacteria in its mouthparts) and the puffer fish (the delicacy fugu in Japan; concentrated in the ovaries and liver). Blocks up calcium channels in nerve cells, or similar, right? What on earth were you researching tetrodotoxin for? Given the topic, NO cheers.
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
So far the false positive rate is 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...
Great post. Thanks.
“This isn’t the kind of thing that they worry about spreading to other patients in the hospital, spreading to people who are walking around the hospital.”
You mean like nurses going from pt to pt?
He’s an idiot.
>Already, the death rate in Guinea, where the infection was first detected, has reached 74 percent. The overall regional outbreak mortality figure is brought down by lower death rates in countries that were more recently hit: 54 percent in Liberia and around 42 percent in Sierra Leone.<
another one:
BREAKING NEWS: Ebola Fears Prompts CDC to Hold Flight at New York’s JFK Airport
Ping...
I was modeling mitochondrial calcium channel dynamics in neurons
Hi Agnes,
New fatality numbers came out, and that’s what got the ink. However, that’s not the important number in the report.
Wikipedia has an outstanding, and well documented - painstakingly documented - area that is actively tracking the outbreak.
You can find it here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_West_Africa_Ebola_outbreak
No R0 figures there, but there’s a graph at the bottom that tracks the outbreak.
The most important line on that graph are the cases.
As you can see, the outbreak is early days, but the cases are showing an exponential curve build up.
One more thing - It’s in Saudi Arabia. A man returning from Sierra Leone to SA died three days after returning. That means he was likely symptomatic on the plane coming home. It’s loose in the SA, and so far there hasn’t been any news or numbers resulting from that.
Recently, however, they have requested help in figuring out how to shut their border (Egypt).
Keep in mind that the SA is also dealing with the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak. That’s actually good news for them, as they were on a ‘war footing’ when came home from a visit to SL to the city of Jiddah. Why a country like SA dealing with MERS allows a symptomatic patient board a plane back to SA is beyond me, however. Probably a function of how backward SL is, not SA.
Now, consider that people come from every country on earth to worship at MECCA. You want to talk about the mother of all bad places to take a disease like Ebola - that’s the place.
They come from everywhere to worship - every country on Earth - and then they go home.
I hadn’t considered that yesterday. You can’t make stuff like this up in fiction and have people suspend their belief to buy it.
Make a muzzie sick, then send him to Mecca.
I’ve never considered that religion, sports fanaticism, music fanaticism, or any other proclivity that would bring an infected patient with a possibly aerosolized, highly contagious (1 to 10 individual units of the virus, and long incubating contagion in contact with tens of thousands of people in a single four hour period might impact the overall equation for how fast it might spread.
If they start ringing up cases in Mecca, that will be interesting.
It’s definitely there, however. That’s a new wrinkle.
The cases curve is trending exponential. This likely means an R0 > 1. You can satisfy yourself of that by looking at the infection trends of other viral infections - not just Ebola.
If you look at Ebola trends, you get a gentler slope up with a plateau. The case line at the site is trending ballistic.
~Ronald Reagan
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