Posted on 10/08/2015 12:47:48 PM PDT by VinL
Will Ted Cruz pick up Trump’s supporters if the mogul starts to fade? Many, if not most, reporters seem to think so. Cruz himself may think so. The data, however, strongly suggest this a fool’s errand.
As I’ve written elsewhere (here, most recently), Trump supporters come from all factions of the GOP. Indeed, most polls show that Trump runs better among self-described moderates than among very conservative voters. Cruz, however, has always been a candidate of the Tea Party/very conservative base. Virtually every poll shows that he is best thought of by very conservative voters, who number about a third of the party nationwide.
Moreover, so far he draws almost all of his support from self-described Tea Party voters who are an even smaller number. Despite what the media tell you, the polls are clear that Tea Partiers and very conservative voters are a minority within the GOP by a large margin.
Cruz’s troubles can best be seen in the PPP national poll of GOP primary voters released this morning. While this is only one poll, it shows what every other poll to date has shown regarding the huge differences between Cruz’s and Trump’s support. Cruz is favored by 7 percent of PPP poll respondents. That number jumps to 15 percent among Tea Partiers, good enough to put him in third place. But that’s only 18 percent of the sample.
Sixty-eight percent say they are not Tea Party supporters, and Cruz’s support slumps to a mere five percent among them. This distinction is seen even more starkly in a question only PPP asks. PPP asks GOP voters which they prefer in a nominee, a candidate who is the most conservative on the issues or one with the best chance of beating the Democrat.
Thirty-six percent say they want the most conservative candidate, and Cruz polls a respectable 14 percent among them. Fifty-one percent choose electability, however, and only an anemic two percent of these voters choose Cruz. This pattern – Cruz only appeals to the very conservative voter – holds no matter how you slice the electorate. He gets 15 percent among very conservative voters, again good enough for third. But that’s only thirty percent of the national GOP electorate. His support drops to 5 percent among the largest ideological faction, somewhat conservatives, and plummets to a mere three percent among moderates and liberals....
Cruz has based his entire career on the premise that very conservative voters are the ignored majority among Republicans. That may be true in the Republican South, but it is not true nationally. The very image that draws many Republicans to him repels or annoys a larger number.
To put it in terms he might understand, a majority of Republican voters have more in common with Mitch McConnell than with him. Until he realizes that and does something to make those voters like him, Cruz will remain a polarizing figure who has no chance to become the nominee, let alone President.
Cruz voted against TPA in the final vote because the bill that came back from the House did not have the immigration language that he and Sessions wanted. Also, he called McConnell out on the backroom deals he was making to get it passed.
If the majority of GOP members/voters align more with McConnell (and, by extension, Boehner) than with Cruz, then why is our dissatisfaction with the GOP over 60%? Hmmm...?
Furthermore, one of Senator Cruz’s most endearing and appealing qualities is his willingness to do battle with the GOP “leadership” - BOTH Boehner and McConnell - and to speak frankly. That, too, would tend to indicate that he has something very much in common with Trump. If most of us see some pretty extensive similarities between Trump and Cruz (not to mention their obvious developing relationship), why wouldn’t this author?
Reason being: Trumpeteers have LIV tendancies.
Folks that write this CRAP are FOS and this CRAP isn’t worthy of publication.
I barely skimmed it.
NOT WORTH MY TIME ACTUALLY READING IT.
That “question” in the pole presupposes that the choice is between conservative and delectable, like if you’re more liberal you’re more electable.
Surprised it took 45 posts for someone to point out the obvious.
Cruz and Trump are polar opposites in many ways. (Media handling, Limited-Government Constitutionalism, etc)
Personally, I have no intention of supporting anybody but Trump, Carson or Fiorina in the primary or general election. Those candidates all have defects, but I’m not voting for a GOP Company Guy this time around. Not a chance.
[I am done voting lesser of two evils]
I agree.
Trump is running his own race. Cruz is running his own race. There is no evidence of Trump fading, and Cruz is gaining.
If, for some reason Trump does happen to drop out-His supporters will go where they want to go.
What's their advice to Cruz:
Be like McConnell and Boehner-You'll win?- Riiiiiight.....(/s)
ping
Cruz will never be President, and would be wasted as VP.
The best outcome is for President Trump to nominate him to replace Ginsburg or Breyer.
Do tell just how is Cruz a "company guy" - this should be really good.
He isn’t, but most of the credible field is.
When someone says “duh”, I know I’m dealing with a true whiz kid.
Yeah me too, and sorry for the voice to text mistakes in spelling
Would online NR articles be good toilet paper for my daughter’s electronic bird?
Did his rich donors pushed Cruz to....
1. Push TPA in Senate
2. Corker Bill “yea” vote
3. Increase H1B visas by 500%
Anti-Trumpters are controlled by rich donors.
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