Posted on 11/17/2015 11:41:51 AM PST by amorphous
A former FBI counter terrorism expert claims the bloody Nov. 13 Paris attack wasn't a full-fledged assault, but a cold-blooded ISIS "test" to assess its ability to launch small, randomized attacks in a major Western city.
That expert, Eric O'Neill, told The Daily Caller News Foundation that ISIS was testing the model he called, "small randomized attacks" when it went on a shooting and bombing spree throughout Paris, killing 129 people and wounding another 352.
"I think this was a test to see how well this could work in a city. Can we coordinate it? Can we effectively carry it out," O'Neill told TheDCNF. "My sense is they are benchmarking themselves. They are going to see if this could be deployed somewhere else because if this was a test, then they passed."
The same test "could have happened in a Washington, D.C. or New York, or Los Angeles and San Francisco, yeah, easily," he said.
In February 2001, O'Neill helped capture the most notorious spy in United States history, Robert Phillip Hanssen. In the three months preceding Hanssen's arrest, O'Neill worked with the spy within the newly minted information assurance division, created to protect all classified FBI intelligence. O'Neill was charged with gaining Hanssen's trust and then using that relationship to slowly draw the traitor out of deep cover.
O'Neill believes the U.S. is next on the terrorist group's target list. He said it is now more likely in the post-attack assessment stage.
ISIS leaders are probably saying, "let's go back to the white board. Let's figure out what we did wrong and what we did right? How could we do better," he said.
Another counter terrorism analyst who requested anonymity agreed, telling TheDCNF that ISIS has abandoned the al-Qaida model, which targeted "symbolic" targets such as the World Trade Center and the Pentagon which were attacked on Sept. 11, 2001.
The ISIS model is to target smaller, "softer" venues that are hard to protect like bars, restaurants, concert halls and public events.
O'Neill said the tactic generates fear because when random attacks occur, no place is safe. "Small randomized attacks cause a much greater sense of terror than one large attack."
The new tactic maximizes fear "because you don't know where the next one is going to hit," O'Neill told TheDCNF.
Not everything went well for the terrorists, according to O'Neil. The bombers at the soccer stadium arrived late and detonated themselves outside.
"If he had been there a little earlier, he might have gone in. It would have been far more devastating," O'Neill said. "My sense is the coordination was off. They started the other shootings too early, or the one with the main bomb at the stadium was too late."
After what the Muslims did in Bombay — there could be no doubt they could do it anywhere.
This could easily be carried out in GUN FREE ZONES. That has already been proven by our own wackos that live here!
Pack your desk sonny boy.
“Small randomized attacks cause a much greater sense of terror than one large attack.”
= = =
I figured from day one, 9/12, that they should hit a small town.
Rodeo, parade, car show, ...
Then we ALL would be exposed to the fear.
Oh, former. So nothing he says has any credibility as far as the fbi is concerned.
Whats so difficult about coordinating something like this?
1. Mohammed go to this address and start shooting at 9pm.
2. Mohammed go to the other address and start shooting at 9.02pm.
Maybe they got their Mohammeds mixed up?
I magine Black Friday, all the nutters need is a few dozen backpacks and pressure cookers placed at the right stores and you can cause some serious havoc.
New York, London, Paris, Madrid, Moscow, ROME?....................
Getting all of your Mohammed’s equipped and onsite at the appointed time gets pretty complicated. Lots of security, transportation, communication and sourcing details to be worked out.
Hmmmm, thanks for the recommending. Looks interesting!
Don’t forget safety training
What do Berlin, Beijing and Tokyo have in common?
Haven’t been hit. Yet.
Maybe true for attacking cities where the citizens are not armed... or for that matter... GunFreeZones in countries that are armed.
Sure, any idiot can shoot unarmed fish in a barrel.
Ah Yeah! As we’ve seen them blow themselves up from time to time.
You forgot putting in reservations for the 72 virgins for everyone.
Coordination difficulties?
First problem is finding people willing to suffer and die in the process. I don’t know anyone willing to, and asking around would set off a lot of red flags that would be investigated.
Once you find a dozen or so as needed for the Paris scenario, you have to get them to the site without arousing suspicion. Remember, you’re talking a dozen people who aren’t good combination of bright & stable, and moving that many together may, um, arouse suspicion.
Next you have to assure they’re capable of doing the task as planned with the equipment given. This isn’t _hard_, but given the “bright & stable” issue it will take considerable training (heck, those of us who _are_ bright & stable would practice comparable tactics for weeks).
Then there’s getting the equipment. Whatever you think of gun laws, machineguns & grenades are in fact hard to come by in most Western countries.
After getting it, then there’s transporting it. Not particularly hard, but still cases of heavy stuff in high-density urban areas.
Finally, there’s infiltrating without gathering undue attention. Most people would be visibly nervous or otherwise expressive of anxiety & ill-intent.
Well, really finally is actually doing it. Most people wouldn’t, especially people who are bright & stable enough to actually do it if not for the natural psychological brick wall preventing most bright & stable people from doing such things to others.
What happened in Paris wasn’t just “you go here and start shooting at X:0Ypm”. They had hard-to-get weapons, and apparently used well-practiced non-trivial non-obvious tactics. Considering the various possible aborted attempts we occasionally hear about (like today’s canceled soccer game in Germany), seems it ain’t easy.
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