Posted on 12/13/2015 11:27:18 AM PST by Isara
A new national poll from NBC/Wall Street Journal is out and it is more than surprising. Unless this poll has the most bizarre population sample ever chosen, the trends are little short of cataclysmic. Donald Trump leads with 27% of Republican primary voters (plus 4 points since the last poll). Ted Cruz is at 22% (plus 12 points since the last poll and very much in line with the last Iowa poll.). Marco Rubio is third at 15% (plus 4) and Ben Carson is in fourth place with 11%. This is down EIGHTEEN POINTS since the last poll and it, like Cruz’s ascent, parallels the Iowa poll.
As my colleague, Neil Stevens, pointed out last week, Ted Cruz is benefiting from Carson’s collapse, so is Trump, so is Rubio. It also shows that this is actually a three man race as all the air seems to be leaving the Ben Carson balloon.
A little deeper dive into the data finds some things we’ve talked about here at RedState:
First, Donald Trump has hit his ceiling. When you look at second, etc., choices Trump has basically been flat since September. Second, Ben Carson is dead-dead-dead. While he lost 18 as a first choice, he lost 22 as a possible second choice. This shows the people he is losing are not even considering him to be a second choice any longer.
One has to assume that Rubio is the second choice for more Bush-Fiorina-Christie-Kasich voters than either Trump or Cruz. Paul and Huckabee voters will probably gravitate to Cruz. So the primary is becoming a race for people to drop out. If Carson’s collapse is complete by New Hampshire, we can expect Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) to start leading national polls as the biggest beneficiary. The longer Bush and Christie stay in the race, the harder it is going to be for Rubio to take a lead.
Wow, this is looking exactly like the polling before the last debate. Just swap Cruz and Carson, Trump remains the same.
Yep, but the question remains, which big fish will the voters turn to when the small fry start dropping out.
The big news is the collapse of Carson.
Ted Cruz is not a leader, Donald Trump is. What Ted can do is forcefully articulate conservative positions but it takes more than that to be a leader.
And the even bigger news that happens after the GOP starts playing for keeps
Trump or Cruz: Heads I win, tails you lose.
The first table is the first choice, the second table is the combined first and second choices.
I would think that a bunch of the GOPe folks will gravitate toward Rubio, though that is really just a guess on my part.
Almost the opposite is more likely correct. The conservative and Christian vote goes to Cruz. The more liberal/moderate and anti-Christian vote splits between Trump and Rubio.
I will gladly pull the lever for Cruz or Trump!
Yes, because Cruz actually IS a Constitutional conservative. Trump may be a leader, but I'm honestly not sure if he knows where he wants to take us.
Really?
Sen. Ted Cruz filibuster angers GOP leaders. Where does fight end?
You Trumpets are just getting silly now...
Good news.
Nicely said. I hope they don’t tear each other to pieces. But it is a horserace...
Yes Cruz has to learn how to insult others and tell everyone how GREAT he is. Now that’s a leader.
Exactly.
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