Hiring Surged At End Of '15; 292,000 New Jobs In Dec.

Investors Business Daily ^ | 01/08/2016 | JED GRAHAM

[expat_panama]

The U.S. added 292,000 jobs in December, the Labor Department said Friday, well ahead of expectations. With October and November payrolls revised up by 50,000, the average monthly gain in the fourth quarter was 284,000.

Warm weather and a rebound from weak hiring in August and September helped boost Q4 job gains, but the underlying trend also is solid, economists said.

For all of 2015, the U.S. added 2.65 million jobs, down from 2014's 3.12 million but still the second-best since 1999.

Robust hiring will keep the focus on when the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates next. That may keep the dollar on the rise as the U.S. economy appears to be a beacon of strength in a struggling global economy.

China's central bank moves to weaken the yuan against the dollar roiled global financial markets all week, and the bout of selling continued Friday, with the S&P 500 giving up another 1.1%. The S&P 500's 6% weekly loss was the worst since 2011.

Yet wage pressures remain subdued...

[snip]

"The data on 'job leavers' is one Janet Yellen and other Fed officials watch closely because it depicts the confidence of workers" optimistic enough to seek greener pastures, he wrote.

Still, just over 6 million workers are part-time for lack of a full-time opportunity, little changed from the end of Q3. While a huge improvement over the 9 million at the end of 2009, it's still nearly 2 million higher than in 2006.

[expat_panama]

 

Figures don't lie but liars figure, and making sure we got all the facts is our job.  It really is a fact that the uneployment rate is down and hiring is steady.

 

It's also true that wages are flat/falling while millions of these new jobs are part time.    

 

On top of that we need to see how these new weak/wage not quite full time jobs are serving (or not serving) America's ever growing population, and to that we have to subtract the total civilian employed from the total civilian non-institutional population:

 

 

Sure, the number fell in December but the increase did nothing to change the fact that the '09 surge was way out of proportion.  This number is supposed to fall back like it did with the econ growth periods of the '80's and in the 90's --or at least stay level like it did w/ GWBush.

What we got is an unprecedented surge followed by a steady increase that's only made things worse.

[SunkenCiv]

Gosh, it's almost as if there were some kind of nationwide, once-a-year, special demand for hired help in the retail sector.

[pieceofthepuzzle]

When you add and compare increases in working age population, and total population (including legal and illegal immigration) to those statistics, what number of monthly job increases is required to just ‘keep up’?

[pieceofthepuzzle]

Never mind. Just saw expat’s chart..

[TwelveOfTwenty]

It's also true that wages are flat/falling while millions of these new jobs are part time.

It's also true that the number of multiple job holders increased by 324,000 in December, according the to BLS' A9 Table

[Gaffer]

what were the actual number of REPORTED new hires and what was the ‘seasonal adjustment’ number from BLS. It’s my understanding that it was 11-12 thousand versus a couple hundred plus thousand “BLS seasonal adjustment”.

[expat_panama]

Top of the mooring to all on this beautiful new week --at least compared to the last one that ended Friday w/ a new plunge in above average (tho falling) volume. 

Our futures traders are contradictory again as this page is optimistic (for now) while the heat map is doom'n'gloom.  Meanwhile metals futures are glum (-0.6%) even as gold'n'silver stay perched up at $1,104.25 and $14.05.

No major econ reports, the best stuff comes in Wed.-Fri.

Etc:

Why Is the Sentiment So Bearish Right Now?

Shares, oil steady in Europe after China sends Asia sprawling

Faber: Stocks have been falling for over a year—and it's going to get worse

It's Probably Too Early To Call An End to Bull Run

China stock swoon could boost US real estate

[expat_panama]

Ah, tx! [adding to my gripe list...]

[SunkenCiv]

How much media shilling and books-cooking qualifies as economic stimulus? :')

[Arm_Bears]

Yeah—The stock market is loving it.

[Political Junkie Too]

Next month's headline: Hiring Data Corrections Surged At Beginning Of '16.

-PJ

[expat_panama]

...actual number of REPORTED new hires and what was the 'seasonal adjustment' number...

There's controvers w/ that, but the 'not-Seasonally Adjusted' number for Dec. was actually lower than the previous month: 149,703 Thousands after the Nov. 149,786 Thousands.  Then again that word "reported" is important.  The fact that total average incomes have been growing says that there really must be a lot of econ activity that's simply not being reported...

[ProtectOurFreedom]

It strikes me as the magical “once every four years everything is rosy” season.

[Political Junkie Too]

How much of this is government shilling in advance of Obama's SOTU Address tomorrow night?

-PJ

[pieceofthepuzzle]

“How much media shilling and books-cooking qualifies as economic stimulus? :’)”

A ton of it..

[expat_panama]

The stock market is loving it.

Considering that the major indexes have already crashed 15-20% in the past couple weeks, I'd say that you're talking a kind of 'loving' that's a bit kinky for my tastes...

[kearnyirish2]

“Yet wage pressures remain subdued...”

This says it all; our real unemployment is still closer to 20%.

[the OlLine Rebel]

Half of them college kids coming back briefly for winter break.

As at my job now.

[GailA]

The Now hiring signs that I see up in my area are for fast food workers or low wage workers. I don’t call that progress.

When you bring back Steel Mills, oil drilling, building nuke plants, tech jobs, then you will see the real hiring.

Like under Carter and Johnson, raises are small if any at all. What difference is 25 to 40 cents going to make in a minimum wage pay check or a low wage earners pay check. Now they face the O’care factor when hiring.

Even big cities with large Dem unions are seeing pension cuts, medical, and raises. Fire, Police, Teacher’s the highest effected. And since they have to live in Memphis to work there they face double property taxation. Memphis is a prime example of that. They just fired the black Dem mayor and elected a white Independent Mayor.

College is not for every one. Trade Schools need to be pushed, Jr. College too.

[alloysteel]

Phony numbers in a couple of ways.

How many of these “new” hires were actually second jobs for those already employed? And how many of them were full-time jobs, as contrasted to “part-time”, less than 20 hours per week? Did ANY of them confer additional benefits, such as health insurance, or sick leave, or vacation time? And how many extended past December 25th?

Also, how many persons became ELIGIBLE to enter the workplace in that period of time? The employment figures are not even keeping up with population increase, especially considering the numbers now swarming INTO the country, from legal, illegal, and “refugee” status.