Posted on 01/20/2016 9:38:40 AM PST by Brices Crossroads
Sarah Palin's surprise endorsement of Donald J. Trump in Iowa yesterday has led to inevitable questions about whether Trump had offered, or would offer, her the Vice-Presidential slot on his ticket. Hearing that question put to Trump on TODAY caused me to reflect on perhaps the most consequential, and in my view regrettable, Vice Presidential selection in American political history.
In 1980, at the GOP convention in Detroit, Ronald Reagan had secured the votes for a first ballot nomination. His difficulty in settling on a Vice-Presidential choice had led to abortive effort to place Gerald Ford on the ticket and to fashion a co-Presidency. As this unraveled, time was ticking down to his acceptance speech. He needed to make a decision. As Craig Shirley points out in his biography on the 1980 Reagan campaign, Rendezvous with Destiny, both Reagan and his wife Nancy wanted to pick Senator Paul Laxalt of Nevada, with whom they were very close and who was as conservative as Reagan. Laxalt had been a Reagan backer since the two were governors in the 1960s and had tirelessly campaigned for Reagan. But Reagan feared that Laxalt brought little political benefit to the ticket and that his connections to Nevada, with its legal prostitution and gambling, would be a drag on the ticket in 1980 America. Reagan had grave doubts about Bush for a variety of reasons, ranging from his political views to his performance under pressure. Despite pleas to wait until the next day, and to at least discuss it with Laxalt, Reagan hastily picked Bush and headed to Joe Louis Arena to make the midnight announcement of Bush's selection. According to Shirley, one of Reagan's closest confidants grumbled that "This is the sorriest day in a decade for Republicans." The subsequent thirty five years have proved that to be perhaps the understatement of the century.
As it happened, Reagan's belief that Bush would provide him with a political boost proved incorrect. He won the election in a massive landslide and Bush was a non-factor. Bush's selection, however, sowed the seeds of the Reagan counter-revolution. In 1988, having been elected to Reagan's third term, Bush proclaimed "a kinder, gentler America"---a direct slap at Reagan conservatism, if not Reagan himself, and set about growing the government, purging the Reaganites and raising taxes. His policies led to the destruction of the Reagan coalition, which had delivered three massive landslides and to the rise of Bill Clinton. Bush 43, whose nomination and election were only possible because of his father's selection in 1980, gave us still more unparalleled spending, illegal immigration, big government, a multi-trillion dollar endless and fruitless war and, ultimately, the advent of Barack Obama. All of this could have been averted had Reagan trusted his gut instincts and selected the rock-ribbed conservative Laxalt rather than Bush. To the old saying that "Elections matter", I maintain that "SELECTIONS matter", especially Vice Presidential selections.
Putting Palin on the ticket as Vice-President would have advantages and disadvantages. The first advantage is geographic. Palin is a Westerner. New Yorker Trump's weakest region, according to polls, is the mountain west. Putting her on the ticket would provide that balance.
Second, Palin's selection would also spur turnout among evangelicals and Tea Party conservatives as it did in 2008 for McCain. Romney's poor turnout among these groups in 2012 was a principal reason for his defeat. Palin's addition would spur turnout for Trump in this crucial demographic.
Third, there is a chemistry between Trump and Palin that would be rare for two national candidates on the same ticket. They obviously like and respect each other immensely. There is a bond of trust between the two of them that is difficult to miss. They have each other's backs, so to speak.
Fourth, and related to the the third advantage, is the fact that both are media superstars. Having either one on a national ticket would draw disproportionate media interest and coverage for that ticket. They would dominate every news cycle, pushing the Democrat candidates into oblivion. Moreover, the free media would make it one of the least expensive Presidential runs in history. With all the free media, Trump could self finance his campaign and hardly put a dent in his massive fortune.
Fifth, Palin provides an insurance policy for Trump. Should Congress or the Establishment ever be tempted to impeach, or otherwise to remove, Trump the specter of Sarah Palin as President of the United States would surely represent a massive deterrent for such a course. If Trump's removal would yield a Marco Rubio or a Jeb Bush, it would embolden the Establishment to attempt it.
Sixth, and perhaps most importantly, after Trump's term(s) are over, and assuming they are successful (as I do), Palin would be well positioned to serve Trump's third term and to cement, rather than to undo, his achievements. The fact that she would be the first woman President would be an additional legacy for Trump, who has often spoken of his wish to see a woman President, just not Hillary Clinton.
There are obvious disadvantages to selecting her as well. The two most most glaring are that her poll numbers are upside down and the media detests her. However, Trump's own favorability numbers were nearly equally as bad when he began his campaign, and they have been steadily improving. The media and intelligentsia detest Trump with the same white hot hatred that they feel toward Palin. She would be in much the same boat as her boss, at least initially. I do not think that her current bad poll position should disqualify her outright, however, for two reasons.
First, and most importantly, she would have the backing and confidence of the Presidential nominee, who shares not just her conservative populist ideology but her two fisted campaign style. She would be a perfect alter ego for Trump on the trail and would basically be able to double and to diversify the political pressure on Hillary Clinton. Palin knows how to attack and her attacks are devastating. McCain and his staff would not let her attack. Instead they attacked her, both overtly and covertly. Trump would be her ally, not her attacker
Second, practically no voters base their Presidential choice on the the Vice Presidential selection. Ultimately, any voters Palin would lose for Trump would be more than offset by some of the voters she would take from Hillary Clinton, especially lower to middle income blue collar women and housewives. In essence, though, anyone who is dissuaded from voting for Donald Trump by Sarah Palin's presence on the ticket would likely not be voting for Trump in the first place. As I heard someone say this morning, Palin is the female counterpart of Trump. If you do not like one, you almost certainly do not like the other.
In the final analysis, I am not suggesting that Trump pick Sarah Palin or that she is the only choice. If there is someone else out there who touches as many bases as she does, I would be all for them. Her selection, or not, would influence my vote not at all. However, I do hope that Donald Trump recalls the events at the 1980 Detroit convention and chooses wisely. After all, "selections" DO matter. They sometimes have even more consequences than elections.
Palin will never do it. Her maternal instincts to protect her family from the vicious, bloodthirsty wolves of the MSM won’t let her.
Trump is not picking Sarah Palin, this guy is an idiot.
I do not believe there was a deal.
I think she did this because she loves America and because she wants to rejoin the fight against the hateful, hateful media who tried so hard to destroy her.
A Trump/Palin ticket?
Are you out of your mind?
I’d sooner vote for Granpa Bernie.
“I like Ted Cruz and will support his presidency.
I like Donald Trump and will support his presidency.
I like Sarah Palin and her faithful devotion to the U.S.A.”
Dittos to all of that. Also I don’t think Sarah will be in the VP slot. I would love to see Ted in there.
Was Cruz an 'idiot' for accepting Palin's endorsement?
It’s important to remember that the party leadership has far more influence in the selection of a running mate than the candidate does. I don’t think any of the presidential candidates going all the way back to 1980 ended up with a running mate they would have selected themselves.
You pretty muc summed up my feelings on the matter.
You mean like HW Bush? ;-)
Exactly. I understand the Clintons and the Gores despised each other, too.
I don’t see Palin on the ticket at all.
I think Trump (assuming he’s the nominee) will stick it to the Dems and bring on a minority (black or Hispanic) female.
Jus sayin.
That “idiot” is a fellow FReeper.
I’ll avoid using the adjectives that come to mind for you.
Palin is there to win Iowa for Trump. Ted’s shiny star is gone after that.
Good analysis - thanks for posting - but I can’t see Trump nominating her as VP.
But definitely a cabinet slot.
FR is bad manners in POTUS primary years and this one is the worst yet.
geeez The derangement is gonna be epic. smh
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