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NATE SILVER: Here's who's favored to win the Iowa caucuses (Odds of winning: Trump 54%-Cruz 33%)
Yahoo.com ^ | 2/1/2016 | Andy Kiersz

Posted on 02/01/2016 2:27:33 PM PST by GilGil

FiveThirtyEight provides two projections for each race: A "polls-only" model that is based solely on public polling within a particular state, and a "polls-plus" model that additionally factors in national polling and endorsements from sitting governors and members of Congress.

Looking at the Monday-night Iowa caucuses, the two models are more or less in agreement about each party's favorites: businessman Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

In the Republican race, the polls-plus model gives Trump a 46% chance of winning, compared with 39% for Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, 14% for Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, and 1% for retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.

The polls-only model has the same order for the top four candidates but with slightly better odds for the front-runner: Trump is forecast to have a 54% chance of winning, compared with 33% for Cruz, 11% for Rubio, and 1% for Carson.

(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Arkansas; US: Florida; US: Iowa; US: New York; US: Texas; US: Vermont
KEYWORDS: 2016; 2016election; arkansas; bencarson; berniesanders; caucus; election2016; electionbetting; florida; hillary; hillaryclinton; hitlery; ia2016; iowa; iowacaucus; marcorubio; natesilver; newyork; tedcruz; texas; trump; vermont; wipewater
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To: SamAdams76

I don’t see trump voters being intimidated, but they can be coerced/tricked because the Trump ground game isn’t solid. Without a precinct leader at each place they may get bamboozled. If that does happen then that is Trump’s fault because he had plenty of time to train and get people as leaders of each place.

If the young first time caucus goers are anything like the sanders bunch it will be easy to fool them.


21 posted on 02/01/2016 2:52:26 PM PST by for-q-clinton (If at first you don't succeed keep on sucking until you do succeed)
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To: GilGil
a "polls-plus" model that additionally factors in national polling and endorsements from sitting governors and members of Congress

This is the ANTI-Establishment election.

22 posted on 02/01/2016 2:53:01 PM PST by Uncle Miltie (Populism is what Populism does.)
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To: SamAdams76

Somebody tried that crap on me, they better pray I’m in a good mood - so I’ll blacken only one of their eyes, instead of both.


23 posted on 02/01/2016 2:55:40 PM PST by WTFOVR (I find myself exclaiming that expression quite often these days!)
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To: nascarnation

And John Sununu picks his nose, while scratching his butt.


24 posted on 02/01/2016 2:57:02 PM PST by WTFOVR (I find myself exclaiming that expression quite often these days!)
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To: xzins

If it is anything like regular primaries we should get some results 3 hours after close.


25 posted on 02/01/2016 2:57:15 PM PST by GilGil
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To: GilGil

Predict It has Trump at 66%


26 posted on 02/01/2016 2:59:49 PM PST by usafa92 (Conservative in Jersey)
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To: SamAdams76

I seriously doubt that will happen. There would be fist fights if Trump supporters were coerced. If someone tried to coerce Trump what would Trump do? His supporters are no different.


27 posted on 02/01/2016 3:00:08 PM PST by GilGil
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To: Mariner

Hey! I love cheese. You touch my cheese and I’m drawing blood.


28 posted on 02/01/2016 3:01:19 PM PST by GilGil
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To: usafa92

Look out. There will be anti-Trump brain splatter all over the walls.


29 posted on 02/01/2016 3:03:03 PM PST by GilGil
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To: GilGil

lol, Nate Silver. How many times has that smarmy little homo buries Trump already?

“I average out all the polls and make a prediction based on the results...clearly I’m a genius!”


30 posted on 02/01/2016 3:04:39 PM PST by longsufferingjetsfan
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Arthur Wildfire! March; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ...

MSNBC's Mitchell Predicts Democratic 'Legal Challenge' Over Iowa Results (Rat spat alert)


31 posted on 02/01/2016 3:11:22 PM PST by SunkenCiv (Here's to the day the forensics people scrape what's left of Putin off the ceiling of his limo.)
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To: SunkenCiv
As John Sununu says pick Souter for Supreme Court

Nuff said

32 posted on 02/01/2016 3:14:33 PM PST by scooby321
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To: for-q-clinton

Do you think the mass of voters who go out in the cold to caucus are that easily manipulated? Or is this you preparing an excuse for loss.


33 posted on 02/01/2016 3:20:43 PM PST by nclaurel
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To: nopardons

you’re frowning over ‘splody heads?


34 posted on 02/01/2016 3:37:40 PM PST by CottonBall
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To: usafa92

Go Trump. Make America Great Again.


35 posted on 02/01/2016 3:38:19 PM PST by lone star annie
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To: GilGil

Yeah, they did good throwing out protesters at the rallies


36 posted on 02/01/2016 3:38:52 PM PST by CottonBall
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To: nclaurel

Huh? Who am I preparing for a loss?


37 posted on 02/01/2016 3:45:59 PM PST by for-q-clinton (If at first you don't succeed keep on sucking until you do succeed)
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To: GilGil

Saw a video of the Apostle Cruz this morning preaching to the audience. He did the best impersonation of Elmer Gantry I’ve ever seen. He dropped down to his knees, started waving his hands like he was having an epileptic seizure, and asked for the Holy Spirit to come “into the body of Christ” and allow him to win the Iowa caucus.


38 posted on 02/01/2016 3:51:21 PM PST by NKP_Vet (In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle,stand like a rock ~ T, Jefferson)
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To: NKP_Vet

The power of Cruz compels you!


39 posted on 02/01/2016 3:52:42 PM PST by I Hired Craig Livingstone
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To: GilGil

So essentially, there are large numbers of Democrats in Iowa who will leave their comfy homes on a cold February night to caucus in favor of a career criminal who has committed espionage against the US while serving as the country’s chief diplomat, or a red diaper baby communist?

This is all you need to know about the Democrats’ base.


40 posted on 02/01/2016 4:08:26 PM PST by mojito (Zero, our Nero.)
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