American Research Group, Inc. [Final Poll Trump 33%+3 Kasich 17%+1 - Sanders 53%nc Clinton 44%+3]

ARG ^ | 2/8/16 | ARG

[BigEdLB]

2016 Iowa Caucuses Pollster Ratings

The following tables list the accuracy of pollsters in the February 1, 2016 Iowa Democratic and Republican presidential caucuses using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.

An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds ratio of the actual results (the closer the accuracy score is to 0.00, the better).

[BigEdLB]

Last poll Trump widens gap, Clinton narrows it

[ground_fog]

Im beginning to think the media dumping on Hillary was all a a sham..so she can look like the comeback kid 2

[2ndDivisionVet]

Kasich? Hahahahahaha! (gasp) Hahahahaha!

[Greetings_Puny_Humans]

So Cruz is basically neck and neck with Bush for 4th place. Cruz should spread a rumor that Bush is dropping out.

[Red Steel]

Another poll that has got Kasich in 2nd.

[Red Steel]

Looks like a log jam with Christie, Cruz, and Bush.

[SmokingJoe]

The polls are all over the place. First they missed by a mile in Iowa. Now they are totally divergent as to the second, third, fourth and fifth positions in NH. Sigh.
We will know by this time tomorrow I guess.
If it's any comfort, the final RCP polling average of NH in 2008 had Obama winning the state by 8.3 points. Hilary actually won it by three. The pollsters don't appear to have improved any in eight years despite all the huge strides in technology and massive leaps in computational power.

[Yashcheritsiy]

Polls mean nothing. We all know Cruz is going to WIN BIG!!!!

[txnativegop]

Who are the people taking all of these polls in NH? They are all over the place in terms of numbers.

Of course, any time a pollster calls me I give incorrect answers because they usually call when I’m busy. LOL

[ButThreeLeftsDo]

WHOLLY CRAP!

BRAKING FREEPING NEWS!!!

[Rational Thought]

Personally, would love to see Kasich come in 2nd....as he has no path to the nomination. But, he would continue to help split the establishment vote.

[txnativegop]

We can hope so, but not likely given that it is NH.

[Kenny]

Is the is last-last poll? The real, honest, very last poll?

I’m in the wrong business.

[Sasparilla]

...Cruz should spread a rumor that Bush is dropping out...

Think big. Cruz should spread a rumor that Trump is dropping out.

[Parley Baer]

“So Cruz is basically neck and neck with Bush for 4th place. Cruz should spread a rumor that Bush is dropping out.”

And Christie is only another point behind. Heck by tomorrow Ted could be in 6th place now that the cheating scandal has caught up with him.

[BlueNgold]

Looking at this RCP avg.

It’s a dog fight for 2nd. All within the MOE.

Surprising to me that Christie seems to have faded, not sure I believe he will only get 5 points. Carson at less than 3 also seems out of kilter. But those are the final numbers.

Trump 30.7 (lead of 16.3)
Rubio 14.4
Kasich 13.0
Cruz 12.4
Bush. 11.3
Christie. 5.4
Fiorina. 4.7
Carson. 2.9

[Helicondelta]

Most of the polls in the RCP average are pre-debate.

They are obsolete.

[Parley Baer]

The numbers I looked at for Feb 7-8 has Cristie at 8%. He is gaining on Ted. Ted has dropped and is now static.

[bigbob]

Carsongate isn’t going away either

[BlueNgold]

Only 2 closed before the debate, of 7.
Only Gravis is purely post debate.
The other 4 cross it, so it’s hard to judge the impact.

This poll, ARG, is a two day weekend poll, half before and half after the debate.

Point being, I have no idea how 2 - 6 will break in this race, but no matter what happens Trump needs 30+, or the news will be all about 3rd place momentum again.

Call me nervous. I don’t trust the media and they are already looking for an angle to deny Trump a quality win.