Dang, I thought you were improving. Obviously, I was wrong.
ORDERLY! Take Cincy back to her room, and secure her in the usual way.
Posted on 02/09/2016 10:43:20 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
MANCHESTER, N.H. - Donald Trump may have come out of New Hampshire with the victory, but Sen. Ted Cruz has emerged as the Republican front-runner.
Though Trump's victory in New Hampshire was no doubt impressive, the electorate of independent voters and super high turnout was tailor-made for him, whereas Cruz didn't put substantial effort into winning the state - where very conservative candidates don't typically do as well. He is currently in position to win third here, with votes still outstanding.
As the race moves to South Carolina, however, Cruz has a ground game in place and the electorate is much more tailored to his strengths.
In Iowa, Cruz dominated Trump among "very conservative" voters, who made up 40 percent of the electorate, and evangelicals, who made up 62 percent of voters. But when it came to New Hampshire, evangelicals only comprised 25 percent of the electorate and "very conservative" voters dropped to 27 percent.
The South Carolina electorate is much closer to the Iowa electorate. In 2012, evangelicals were 65 percent of the electorate and very conservative voters were 36 percent of the electorate.
Furthermore, in Iowa, Cruz had to fend off Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, who were all competing for similar voters. Carson received 9 percent in Iowa, and though Huckabee didn't perform well, he did serve as an anti-Cruz attack dog to evangelicals. Now, Huckabee and Santorum are out, and Carson enters South Carolina greatly hobbled.
Though the RealClearPolitics average currently has Trump up 16 points over Cruz in South Carolina, that's misleading, because none of the polls were taken after Cruz's win in Iowa.
Furthermore, now that the field has narrowed down and Trump has won a primary and proven himself a serious threat, there will be a lot more focus on his liberal record - on abortion, guns, healthcare, property rights - among other issues. It won't dissuade his strongest supporters, but it doesn't matter, because it will discourage enough very conservative voters and evangelicals to give Cruz the victory.
Which brings us to Rubio's poor performance in New Hampshire. The fact that Cruz was able to best Rubio in a more moderate state where Rubio should have been a lot stronger, is more good news for Cruz.
Had Rubio won a strong second in New Hampshire, he could have knocked Kasich and Bush out of the race and emerged as a serious threat in South Carolina. Now Rubio will still have to spend his time in the state trying to fend of Jeb Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Should Cruz carry South Carolina, he will have won two out of the first three primary states, severely wounding both Trump and Rubio. That's why he should be considered the front-runner.
I’m thrilled with Trump’s win, he did well. I’m also happy for Cruz third place finish, but I woulda been happier with a Cruz second place finish, because Kasich is a waste of space.
But third is still good, and the reason it is is because no one can really spin that Bush or Rubot is surging.
In fact, Rubot bombed, and that makes me happy. And it looks like the former federal prosecutor and doer of actual things for New Jersey, Krispy, is going to call it quits.
So hopefully the fat gets trimmed. Pun intended.
Time for some of these bums to git.
This is wishful thinking. Trump just won NW which put him ahead of the delegate count and the author say Ted Cruz is the Front Runner? No he’s not, at least not yet
I am happy with Cruz’s third place in New Hampshire. He has clearly established himself as the conservative alternative to Trump and I really hope that he will pull off a win in SC.
Nods head.
Cruz got 2 delegates, as of the last count I have found.
As far as you are citing the east coast and west, that would appear that Trump would be the “liberal” candidate.
I would vote for Trump if he is the nominee.
I would much rather be able to vote for a true conservative.
Do you see Trump as “very conservative”?
LOL!
Dang, I thought you were improving. Obviously, I was wrong.
ORDERLY! Take Cincy back to her room, and secure her in the usual way.
[And if Trump was done in by a tweet it would be poetic justice.]
Would you please post the link to your information.
Thank you.
Rubio is on the way out. Carson and Fiorina are on the way out. Christie is on the way out, thank God.
Kasich and Bush will split the GOPe vote.
Trump is the wild card. I still think he’ll implode, or the party regulars will find some way to block him. (Who knows though — maybe I’m wrong.)
That would leave Cruz as the last man standing.
It’s about time we had a conservative standardbearer. You have to go back to Reagan, and before that Goldwater, to find a conservative.
Trump won self-identified "very conservative" voters in New Hampshire.
That's like winning self-identified "very cool" kids in the chess club.
Not a very high bar to reach.
While I'm happy as hell that it's looking like Cruz will beat Bush and Rubio and come in 3rd in New Hampshire when he was expected to come in 5th, I'd prefer not to count our conservative chickens before they are hatched.
Let's win South Carolina before we declare victory.
Keep telling yourself that.
You certainly have a thing about posting pictures of women in vulnerable situations.
What’s up with that?
This is an amazing conglomerate of wishful thinking combined with spin.
Don’t be mad bro. Turn that frown upside down!
Everyone on your list is more conservative than Trump. Trump is a New York Democrat.
I say Trump is leading, with a first and a second place finish.
And ahead in the polls by 16 in SC, will likely win there, too.
Yes - it was reported that Christie was going home to NJ to look at the hard numbers - and not to SC.
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