Posted on 02/26/2016 9:03:50 AM PST by Jeff Head
After last night's debate...which was as fiery, and in many ways, as unconrtolled a debate as we have seen yet...I thought that an analysis of the two leading challengers to Trump as a front runner should be examined.
I believe how they do in their own home states is as strong a bellweather as you can get on their prospects against Trump as any. Simply stated, each candidate simply MUST win in their home state against Trump to have any chance at all.
These are states where both men, Cruz in TX and Rubio in FL, ammassed millions of votes to win their senate races. They are well known and liked in their home states.
If Trump wins one or the other on their home turf, I view the prospects for that candidate in terms of the overal primary finished.
They may be finished in any case depending on how well they do elsewhere...but certainly if they fail to win their home state they are done.
Here are the latest six major polls from TX regarindg the GOP Primary
These show Cruz by almost 9 points ahead of Trump in TX. This is good ness for Cruz, and I think he has to win by 10 points, or something very close to it, to have had a good night.
Here are the four latest polls from FL and GA (ony two from FL were available so I added the two from GA too help round out the averages):
These show Rubio trailing Trump by 18 1/2 points. That is a very bleak outlook for Rubio. Perhaps the debate last night will change that. He also has longer to do so since Texas votes on March 1st and FL not until March 15th.
We shall see...but it woill have to be a dramatic change for him to win at all, and need to be close to a 25+ pont change for him to feel even moderately good about it.
See: The Trump Phenomenon: Straight Talk
FYI.
Thanks
I would say it is badly outdated poling.
Cruz’s endorsement of La Raza Rubio last night was a game changer, and not in a good way for him.
Best case scenario - Cruz wins Texas, Trump clobbers Rubio in Florida and knocks him out of the race. Then it’s down to Trump versus Cruz and may the best man win. Win-win for us as far as I’m concerned, and if it comes to that I hope the bashers’ keyboards lock up until the convention. We need to be making the case for our own candidates and not bashing the other guy.
My head is spinning, I feel faint. Some objective analysis that didn’t use the words sleazy or liar.
Unless something really strange happens, Rubio can’t possibly win FL. Cruz might win TX, but he must think that he’s in trouble there, because he is spending so much time campaigning in his own state that should have been a lock weeks or months ago.
Thank you Jeff for keeping the conversation grounded, s you’ve always done. My .02, I think Ted Cruz will win Texas; the margin may or may not matter. I don’t think Rubio has a prayer in Florida. Donald Trump has had a business and residential presence in that state for decades, a lot longer than Rubio has been in politics. What will be interesting to watch is the Gop-e panic when their latest horse fails at that gate.
You are welcome.
Feb 24-25 is badly outdated???
Didn’t you used to have a TV show?
Hehehe...but proof positive that it can be done.
Cruz’s endorsement of La Raza Rubio last night was a game changer, and not in a good way for him.
Ted Cruz. The consistent conswervative.
Last night made everything different for border focused voters.
You are welcome.
We all need to realize (IMHO) that the real enemy in this election resides in the progressive/liberal/socialist DNC.
We are going to end up with a nominee...and we will all need to support that person against Hillary or sanders.
Whatever we think are the ills and shortcomings of individual GOP candidates...any one of the remaining candidates would be several orders of magnitude better for our country, our kids, our grandkids than either Bernie or Hillary.
Cruz may well win TX by a bit, but it’s proportional and he’ll only get a few more delegates compared to the landside that Trump will get from Super Tuesday. In the end, it won’t matter a bit.
All the Super Tuesday states are proportional. Trump will win all the states, but Cabana Boy and his new lover will also get delegates.
Trump might win TX, but it’ll be close. The rest will be Trump at 40%.
Have you checked to see how this analysis squares with the findings over at RCP? Do you mind if I check on that?
I am a bit of a poll-junkie.
Let me add an addendum to your thoughts, Jeff.
In reality, the candidates must win their home states handily for it to be a clear message of support from their own state.
What it boils down to is this...we must be fair. TRUMP must ALSO win New York. Given that principle, it is also only fair to say that Cruz must win Texas by as much as Trump wins New York. Rubio must win Florida by as much as Trump wins New York. Kasich must win Ohio by as much as Trump wins New York. I’m not sure which state Carson is claiming as his own, but the same principle applies.
Squeaking through a close battle with Trump in one’s own state is certainly not an endorsement. In my view, it demands more than a bare victory. I think it requires a minimum double digit victory.
Some will say that I’m being partisan because I support Trump. I am a Trump supporter, but I think the logic of expecting a candidate to win in his own back yard is extremely rational.
What does it say if your Mom says that she cares for an unknown kid almost as much as you, and she’s written him into the will for almost as much as you get?
All of this ‘win his own state’ stuff must be in balance. Now certainly, if Cruz loses Texas, that’s huge. That means Mom wrote him out of the will altogether in favor of a stranger.
But if the stranger is in Mom’s will AT ALL, then YOU have a problem, “Houston”. (pun intended)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.