Posted on 04/04/2016 5:33:15 AM PDT by Mifflin
Based on current delegate counts and poll numbers Ted Cruz will be mathematically unable to reach the delegate count required for him to win the Republican Presidential nomination. By the end April it will be clear that Ted Cruz has no chance of reaching the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination.
God knows the heart and will come to the aid of those following after the LORD in faith.
We must repent of our turning away. In truth.
We do our best to earn grace and forgiveness in this life. We were never promised Heaven on earth.
If anything earth is purgatory. :-)
You may recall that Gingrich could have withdrawn from a couple states and let Santorum win which would have defeated Mittens. Newt had zero chance to win anything in those states so maybe the plan all along was for Mittens to be the GOPe pick.
I think any Rep would have lost given the state of the country after the two Nixon/Ford terms. Ford did have the incumbent's advantage, which may have made him a stronger candidate than Reagan. Carter swept the South except for VA, Carter won Texas and Ford won CA, OR, and WA. Amazing how things have changed electorally.
Without Carter, Iranian sponsored terror may never have happened. Hindsight is always 20/20, but to suggest that Cruz is somehow behaving differently than Reagan in ‘76 is a pretty tough argument to make given what we know to be true during that time.
It was a two man race in 1976 and much closer. Trump is beating Cruz fairly handily. Cruz is a sitting senator and part of the Washington political class. Reagan was more of an outsider despite being a two term governor. Different times, different personalities.
I had an opportunity to meet Ford in Greece while I was assisting him in getting on to a cruise ship in the early nineties. We had a pleasant one-on-one 30 minute conversation talking about everything and anything. Nice guy. Impressive war record and athletic career. I have a personally inscribed picture with him.
Thank you!
You might be correct. I'm trying to remember.......wasn't there some brouhaha during the primary that Santorum was "too conservative" and therefore, he couldn't beat the Democrats?
Either way, this is the way the primary is run/won. If you are going to "win", you had better be prepared for all contingencies.
And if what's required to win a primary is "above" your level of comprehension or skill, you have no business thinking you have what it takes to run the country, IMHO
People forget that the primary is like a job interview with Human Resources, to see what your abilities are. You get to the second interview, by winning the required number of delegates before the Convention.
It is "not" a coronation for a King to claim his throne by a popularity contest.
“Then, he will have done his job, so he can ride into Cleveland, triumphantly and be appointed the Republican nominee.”
If you believe that, I have a bridge for sale just for you!
You are in favor of changing the rules of the game in the middle of the game?
The “reality” is that Cruz will achieve 1237 first, and become the nominee.
I’m sorry that attempting to call the game in the middle of 5th inning didn’t work out for you......
Until the GOPe decides to throw the process wide open, since no candidate won a majority during the primary.
ExploiTED!
Not analogous. And Cruz is no Reagan. Comparing a first term sitting senator who has no real executive or private sector experience with a two term governor of the most populous state is utter nonsense.
Ford got the nomination. Reagan was unsuccessful.
How close does it have to be before it's considered theft? Those goalposts can move a lot when you think that someone has earned something before they have.
Ask Cruz who seems to think he is entitled despite trailing in delegates, votes, and states won.
Cruz on a contested convention: It's either Cruz, Trump, or 'the people will ... revolt'
No it is It is "not" a coronation for a King to claim his throne determined by our betters. popularity contest.
Why would that even matter? It doesn't matter if it's a first term senator, a sitting governor or a guy who builds big buildings. The same rules apply to them all. To say that Reagan had more of a right to pursue the nomination than any other candidate is patently absurd. You guys just can't stand it when your blatant inconsistencies are brought to light. And you always seem to have something illogical to explain it away.
Cruz is right. The nomination will either be Trump or Cruz, or else the end of the Republican Party as we know it will occur. Trump doesn't earn the nomination until he gets to 1237. He needs to close the deal and being the king of the deal, now is the time to make it happen. Can he? We will see. If he does, I'll be one of his many supporters. If not, then the fault lies with him, even though Trump and many of his supporters will choose to blame others instead.
I didn't say that Reagan had no right to pursue the nomination. I said the circumstances were entirely different. There were only two candidates in the race in 1976, the incumbent President and Reagan. They battled it out over the course of the primary season. We had an initial field of 17 in this one. The field is now three with only one candidate having a shot at 1,237. Why are Cruz and Kasich staying in the race? They want to steal it at a contested convention, the only way they can win.
Cruz is right. The nomination will either be Trump or Cruz, or else the end of the Republican Party as we know it will occur.
LOL. Cruz can't have it both ways. If the primary season means nothing if no one gets 1,237, then the delegates can choose any "fresh face" they want. Cruz doesn't dictate who will be in that field. The rules say that the delegates will select the nominee. Why shouldn't Kasich be considered?
The GOP as we know it will end if someone other than the guy with the most delegates won during the primaries and the most votes and the most states won is selected. Trump has almost 300 more delegates, 2 million more votes received, and twice as many states won.
Trump doesn't earn the nomination until he gets to 1237. He needs to close the deal and being the king of the deal, now is the time to make it happen. Can he? We will see. If he does, I'll be one of his many supporters. If not, then the fault lies with him, even though Trump and many of his supporters will choose to blame others instead.
The GOPe will be changing the rules prior to the convention. It is going on right now. Most of the delegates are part of the GOPe. After the first round, they will decide who gets the nomination and it won't be Trump or Cruz.
It is truly amazing how the electoral map has changed in that time frame. But the '76 election was a lot closer than you seem to think. Just 5,000 more votes in Ohio and 4,000 votes in Hawaii would have elected Ford. Exit polling showed Ford was punished significantly for the pardon and for the many blunders he made during the campaign. No way of knowing if Reagan would have done the same, but there is no doubt that Reagan would have been the better candidate and would have performed better in the south.
It was a two man race in 1976 and much closer. Trump is beating Cruz fairly handily.
Which is why I asked what the right spread is in your mind for awarding this to Trump even if he doesn't get to 1237. The rules say otherwise, but being practical and taking public perception into consideration, it is much harder to deny Trump the nomination if he is just 50 delegates away from the magic number than 250. He'd better get his act together on the ground, however, or he's going to get outplayed in a situation where every delegate could count - big time.
I never met Gerald Ford but I did spend several weekends partying with Susan and her friends in Georgetown. She was pretty wild, as were her friends. Her dad seemed like a nice enough guy - very likable. I didn't like his politics even when I was a kid. Too much country club squishiness. If only Goldwater had won.....!!
At this point it’s just silly to call Cruz “mathematically eliminated.”
Here’s the equation:
T = delegates pledged to Trump
U = delegates pledged to no one or anyone other than Trump or Cruz, whom under the present rules can ONLY vote for Trump or Cruz because no other candidate can be placed in nomination, and whom at this point it can be expected that 90%+ will vote for Cruz under that scenario.
Therefore under the current rules Cruz is reasonably argued to be mathematically eliminated only if and when T + U/10 = 1237. The polls suggest that’s not likely until the California primary, although certainly not impossible.
Any change to the rules will tend to push mathematically elimination further out, because by permitting another candidate to be nominated, it increases the odds of a second, etc. round of balloting in which pledges are released and its anybody’s ball. (Of course, since Cruz delegates won’t support a rule change, the rule change will have to be driven by TRUMP delegates, most likely out of spite for Cruz, not by the GOPe.)
This makes it even more important. With that many in the primaries, until late, it is good to know that the top guy is really the preferred candidate. If Trump is the preferred candidate, then he'll close the deal in the next two weeks. If he does that, it will all be moot. Given his inability to get way from the 7th grade school yard nonsense, and begin to act presidential (which would have closed the deal and allowed him to unify the party), he chose to go into the gutter like an egocentric loudmouth with a short fuse. Only Trump is responsible for sending this into overtime, not Cruz.
If Kasich would exit the race, the gap would shrink and the race would begin to look more and more like '76. The best thing Trump has going for him right now -- until he can learn to control his mouth and his Twitter feed -- is having Kasich in the race.
Your crystal ball is no better than anyone else's. Given that fact, you don't mind if we allow the process to play out, do you? Again, if Trump is so much more preferred than Cruz, he will show us in the remaining primaries and win this without question. If he can't then he has no one to blame but himself. I don't think the party picks the fresh face to run as it will kill the candidates down the ticket and in local and state races as well. The party may be run by a bunch of dirtbags, but they won't allow the party to go Kamikaze. The GOPe can do whatever they want on the floor to deny the candidate with the most delegates the nomination. I don't believe the party is suicidal and this is simply posturing. I may be wrong but I hope not. It does make for a good argument to demonize Trump's competition though..."get out for the good of the country" etc.. That very same thing was told to Reagan in '76 but he didn't listen. I'm glad he didn't because he never would have been able to make that speech that put everyone on notice about his plans in '80.
Cruz isn't a part of the GOPe. That's just emotional driven garbage. The GOPe just hates him less than Trump right now.
There is nothing in place that can force the party to nominate Trump if he doesn't win on the first ballot. However, and only of it isn't close, if they deny him the nomination when he is clearly in the lead by hundreds of delegates, then they risk tearing the party up and throwing the entire election. I don't believe they will do it, but Trump would certainly help himself if he began to act more presidential and stop saying and doing stupid things that only drive his negatives higher. Right now, Trump is Trump's worst enemy.
This is very well said.
I am not sure that denying Trump the nomination even with a big lead in delegates is the wrong move. Nothing he’s said or done has shown any willingness to get beyond where he’s at or speak to the people he hasn’t already converted.
Are there Trump supporters who will stay home in November out of anger at Ted Cruz? Sure. But right now for every one of them there are two reliable Republicans who simply won’t vote, or will vote for Clinton, if Trump is the option. Being honest, every FReeper could probably list half a dozen of those #NeverTrumps among his or her own friends and family; I sure can, and some of those people are righter than Attila the Hun in ordinary circumstances.
We will just agree to disagree. Carter set the stage for the two Reagan landslides. That would not have been the case in 1976.
Which is why I asked what the right spread is in your mind for awarding this to Trump even if he doesn't get to 1237. The rules say otherwise, but being practical and taking public perception into consideration, it is much harder to deny Trump the nomination if he is just 50 delegates away from the magic number than 250. He'd better get his act together on the ground, however, or he's going to get outplayed in a situation where every delegate could count - big time.
The right spread is the difference between Trump and Cruz in terms of delegates won, votes received, and states won, including key battleground states like FL, MI, and PA. Although Trump lost Ohio, he beat Cruz by 450,000 votes.
Cruz is no righteous anything based on his behavior from Iowa on.
IMO this will end Ted’s career outside of maybe Texas.
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