Forget Trump. Paul Ryan is the likely GOP nominee

CNBC ^ | April 5, 2016 | Jake Novak

[kevcol]

But even if an almost best-case scenario shakes out for Cruz, this is a suicide mission whether he realizes it or not. Because a brokered convention needs two — not just one — sacrificial lambs. Coming within 100-150 delegates of Trump will do a lot to convince any remaining delegates not that Cruz is the answer but that Trump really doesn't have any chance of getting enough Republican support to even remotely challenge Hillary Clinton in the general election.
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Ryan's chances of winning are a different discussion, as is the crucial decision of who would be his running mate. But in any case the current Speaker of the House stands a much better chance than Trump, who cannot beat Clinton, and Cruz, who cannot win the nomination.

[Innovative]

“Romney or Ryan...it’s gonna get ugly.”

Neither ran in the primary this election. So how can they get the nomination bypassing the voters?

[zek157]

To hell with them. Directly.

[Romans Nine]

“Trump being President means all of that ceases. Power gone. Graft gone. Looting the tax payers done.....and, lots of people with Ds and Rs next to their names could go to jail. Trump will go there. That’s why they’re scared shit less and will do whatever it takes.”

What makes you think this?
I hope it’s true but really other than your imagination what evidence do you have that suggests he would do this?
Has he (Trump) said as much?

[Carry me back]

Trying to discourage people from voting for Trump. Go Trump !

[Carry me back]

I ll only vote for Trump.

[Innovative]

GOPe is in bed with the Democrats for a Hillary presidency.

See:

Tech billionaires (major Dem donors and Hillary supporters) plot with GOP leaders at exclusive island resort to stop Trump

http://nypost.com/2016/03/08/tech-billionaires-plot-with-gop-leaders-to-stop-trump-at-exclusive-island-resort/

[TTFlyer]

Rinsed Penis on Wisconsin “conservative” talk-radio:

Quote:

“Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus cautioned supporters of Donald Trump who vocally disapprove of the GOP’s delegate allocation and selection process.

“By the way, this is a nomination for the Republican Party,” Priebus told 620 WTMJ in Wisconsin. “If you don’t like the party, then sit down. The party is choosing a nominee.”

[angelcindy]

HEY GOP ....TRY IT WE RIOT

[MotorCityBuck]

We will know soon enough @ 9:00 tonight. ☺ Go Trump.

[onona]

$20 to FR for NFW

[mmichaels1970]

Because after the first ballot, the delegates can vote as they wish. If a majority in 8 or more states then switch to Ryan, he CAN be nominated under Rule 40

Hmm...that's not how I'm reading it. I'm not lawyer though.

(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination. Notwithstanding any other provisions of these rules or any rule of the House of Representatives, to demonstrate the support required of this paragraph a certificate evidencing the affirmative written support of the required number of permanently seated delegates from each of the eight (8) or more states shall have been submitted to the secretary of the convention not later than one (1) hour prior to the placing of the names of candidates for nomination pursuant to this rule and the established order of business.

To me, once the convention comes around, prior to the first ballot, the names of the candidates will be listed. Once they are listed, the voting would ensue. I don't see how you can place somebody on a subsequent ballot if he wasn't on the initial list of potential candidates prior to the start of the convention. If Rule 40 remains in place, Ryan can't be listed as a candidate, and therefore couldn't secure the support of 8 or more states on a subsequent ballot.

I thought the intent of the Rule was to protect Romney from Ron Paul. If Rule 40 is somehow null and void after the first ballot, what would have been the use for it anyway? Under your scenario, had Romney not gotten the nomination on the first ballot, Paul could have rallied delegates from eight states to get put back on the ballot. This would be totally counter to why the rule was written in the first place wouldn't it?

[Seruzawa]

They obviously are good with The Shrew as President since Ryan wouldn’t get many votes from Trumpsters or Cruzers. Heck. It might get very unsafe personally for Uni-Partiers considering the mood of the nation.

[mosesdapoet]

Novak and CNBC are pulling everybodys chain, If Cruz takes this he has already said the fight will be between him and Trump on Levins show yesterday. Eversince Cruz took that position there has been some softening of support for him amoung certain GOPES. I think what the establishment is looking at are the TU law suits Trump has comming up and results going against him.

[itsahoot]

I hope it’s true but really other than your imagination what evidence do you have that suggests he would do this?

Trump maybe.
Cruz definitely not.

Pick one.

[Leaning Right]

I thought the intent of the Rule was to protect Romney from Ron Paul. If Rule 40 is somehow null and void after the first ballot, what would have been the use for it anyway?

If I recall correctly, Romney had the nomination locked up before the 2012 convention even started. But Ron Paul's supporters wanted to nominate Paul anyway, as that would have given Paul the right to give a speech.

The purpose of Rule 40 was to stop Paul from even speaking! I find that disgusting, as Paul had won some delegates. He had the right to speak. But the GOPe thought elsewise.

Again, if I recall correctly.

As for the rest of your post, I still think Rule 40 cannot prevent a late-comer from being nominated. But like you, I'm no laywer (and proud of that).

[funfan]

Yep.

[Bruce Campbells Chin]

I don't buy this. I'm not a fan of Trump, and only a fan of Cruz by default. But unless both of those guys do something incredibly boneheaded between now and the Convention, or something horrible comes out about them, that would lead to a general consensus of "we can't nominate that guy", I'd be pissed as heck if either one of them were not the nominee.

I also think this story is ignoring Cruz's ground game. I think he'd not only hold most of his delegates after a first ballot, but probably gain some. And those people, in addition to Trump supporters, would be enough to deny the nomination to some guy like Ryan (who I do like) who didn't run in the first place.

If it is not one of those two, you're going to lose a lot of Republicans just on general principle.

[Cobra64]

Cruz is only doing the establishment’s dirty work for them. He knows it, and he also knows that he won’t be the nominee. I’m guessing that they’ve promised to pay off his campaign debt, and finance his re-election campaign in 2018.

Yup, they're in this together.

[Paine in the Neck]

Ditch the GOPe's princeling, Paul Ryan.

No as presidential candidate.

No as Speaker.

No as Representative.

There is an alternative.

www.paulnehlen.com

[Jane Long]

play games
lose 40% of the votes

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All part of the GOPe/RNC Plan™