Free Trade and the De-Industrialization of the United States

economyincrisis ^ | 4/5/16 | McKenna Service Company

[central_va]

Manufacturing was the economic growth engine of United States. It helped to create the high paying jobs, improved living standards, national wealth, military might, and tax revenues. Unfortunately, there has been a dramatic decline in the above scenario for the United States in the 21st century. The U.S is rapidly turning into non-Super Power second rate country.

Manufacturing is the basis for research and development and National Defense and once represented more than 28% of the jobs in the U.S. Although the absolute number of jobs in American manufacturing was rather constant at about 17 million from 1969 to 2002, manufacturing’s share of jobs has continued to decline from about 28% in 1962 to only 8% in 2014.

[central_va]

Automation is stealing US jobs just like trade is

They are different. Automation cannot be prevented. Moving factories to Asia can be prevented. Do you see the difference?

[sickoflibs]

RE:”They are different. Automation cannot be prevented. Moving factories to Asia can be prevented. Do you see the difference? “

Both can be prevented.

Its just that one looks cost free to the clueless.

[GraceG]

[ Domestic over regulation and over taxation do not prevent us form making widgets here. Those things cause inflation perhaps a few pennies on the dollar. They prevent nothing.

I agree they are bad things but go after them as a separated issue. But offshoring for the cheapest labor has nothing to do with it.

“Movement” conservatives, God bless their little hearts, have been brainwashed into this ruse by big cap corporation and our corrupt government. They get you on board with the anti regulations / anti tax rhetoric when in fact those are used as political cover for the real hidden goal which is searching the world for the cheapest labor. So called movement conservatives fall for the bait everytime. When will you learn? ]

The worst chains are the ones we put on ourselves...

So I guess more taxes in the form of Tariffs will fix everything right?

“Conditional Communism” is fine as long as it is for the Nation?

“Situational Socialism” is fine as long as it is for the Nation?

Right.....

Take ethanol industry for instance, maybe we should put Tariffs on Oil / Gasoline to help the Ethanol industry, right?

Or gee, maybe we should shut down the A part of the BATFE and let ANYONE make ethanol and also cut all the subsidies for ADM/Con Agra, etc...

Which do you want? More Government or Less Government?

Cause you sound like you want MORE government as long as that MORE government agrees with YOU.

[central_va]

You missed the part of those charts which show US manufacturing output keeps growing, even as employment falls.

I agree automation is good and shouldn't be slowed down . Offshoring is bad, stupid and contrary to a strong America. Whether the factory has robots or humans makes no difference IT NEEDS TO BE HERE.

[cp124]

Shouldn’t we building the automation and factories? With less labor content China is less attractive.

[BroJoeK]

IronJack: "The changes in agricultural productivity you cite caused extreme displacement in the rural areas of the country."

I know all about that, my family lived it and to some degree still does.

IronJack: "That worked in a lot of cases because the displaced farmers could move to industrial jobs, where the skills they'd acquired over a lifetime could be put to good use.
Where are the displaced industrial workers going to go? "

Among my 15 aunts & uncles who grew up on farms, only two farmed full-time.
The rest all went into various services -- teachers, military, health care, several salesmen, small businesses -- and construction.
Those all required higher education, and all did reasonably well, except the farmers.

IronJack: "But any rush to embrace technological enhancements to productivity comes at a human cost.
We need to anticipate that eventuality."

I certainly "get" that, but nobody wants to return to the technologies of 100 years ago, or even 50 years ago.
What the government can & should do is make it easier for people to change jobs & succeed at new businesses.
But that's a whole different discussion...

[sickoflibs]

RE:”Shouldn’t we building the automation and factories?”

I know, how about if we only allow automation technology made here to be exported, not be sold or used here?

And stop all imports of computers, etc.

That would bring back our jobs...right?

[DugwayDuke]

“Those ex-farmers spent the first half of the 20th. Century flocking into cities to take industrial jobs. Where do you propose that they go next?”

Do you believe that the pace of productivity or technology advances that displace workers should be limited to ensure that every one has a job?

[Pelham]

Economist and trade authority Rush Limbaugh gave his imprimatur to NAFTA. Any claim that it caused harm rather than widespread American prosperity certainly must be in error. No one can argue that the importation of millions of Mexican peasants failed to enrich the United States.

[DugwayDuke]

“Do you support Cruz?”

I support all the candidates with a decent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton. I consider anyone currently in the race for the Republican nomination to be far superior to either Democrat.

[Pelham]

Right on, bert. The fact that our major trade partners have trade barriers that keep out American manufactured products is something only isolationists worry about.

[Pelham]

Don’t spoil their best argument.

[BroJoeK]

baltimorepoet: "Its gonna be a bitch when eventually we reach the point where oil production peaks, and then enters decline.
Resources aren’t infinite."

The key point to grasp here is that there will always be enough oil, coal & other energies, always.
That is providing, providing governments allow prices to match up supply with demand.
So what will certainly happen, over time, is that some forms of energy (i.e., petroleum) will grow more & more expensive while other forms (i.e., solar) will become cheaper.
So, as fuel becomes more expensive, we might expect to see fewer big-rig trucks on highways and more intermodal trailers moving by train.
Eventually, trains themselves might be electric powered.

You may know this, I've looked up the numbers:

1. Today there are roughly half the railroad miles as there were about 100 years ago.

2. For every mile or railroad in the US, we have 20 miles of highway.

3. Now imagine gasoline costs $50 per gallon, and electricity is still relatively the same cost as today.
   Can you see where railroad miles could double & double again, while some highways sit unused?

baltimorepoet: "The West and its way of life is doomed."

Sadly, I wish I could disagree with you on that, and make a strong case that we're not finished yet.
Am sometimes reminded of King Aragorn's call to arms at the gates of Mordor: Not this day!

"Sons of Gondor! Of Rohan!
My brothers.
I see in your eyes the same fear that would take the heart of me.
A day may come when the courage of Men fails, when we forsake our friends and break all bonds of fellowship, but it is not this day.
An hour of wolves and shattered shields when the Age of Men comes crashing down, but it is not this day!
This day we fight!
By all that you hold dear on this good earth, I bid you stand, Men of the West!"

[bert]

What makes you think that?

I know that Trump can not do all he says because he will simply not have the power to do so

[riverdawg]

“Oh, I think most understand it, but that doesn’t change the levels of frustration for people who lose good jobs, for whatever reasons.”

I understand the frustration, and I favor getting rid of the many policies, like high corporate tax rates and the Dodd-Frank law, which raise the cost of doing business here. But the idea that we are ever going to have the number of manufacturing jobs we had before, say, 1974 is not only delusional but wrong-headed. To do so would require a return to lower labor productivity and union or government restrictions on how the workplace is staffed.

“People, especially men, want to make, build & manufacture in America.”

But at what cost? You can still buy a Made in the USA cotton dress shirt, but most of them cost +$100. Very few people are willing to pay that much. As the great sage Pogo said, “We have met the enemy and he is us.”

[Buckeye McFrog]

Do you believe that the pace of productivity or technology advances that displace workers should be limited to ensure that every one has a job?\

They'll either have a job or an income. They sure as heck aren't going to starve to death or voluntarily self-terminate.

So, do you want the income coming from THEIR job, or yours?

[baltimorepoet]

Query, at which price, would oil have to reach, to essentially destroy the West?

$200/bbl, $250/bbl?

As far as solar and alternatives, China has a lock on rare earth metals.

Every civilization collapses. Our is next. Turn the page.

Muslims and China are playing the long game. Westerners don’t usually think much further than quarterly profits, if even that. (and the lower classes from paycheck to paycheck)

My money is on Islam and China toppling the West, then fighting each other and India for the crumbs that are left.

[DugwayDuke]

“They’ll either have a job or an income. They sure as heck aren’t going to starve to death or voluntarily self-terminate. So, do you want the income coming from THEIR job, or yours?”

Their income should come from their jobs.

Why not answer my question: “Do you believe that the pace of productivity or technology advances that displace workers should be limited to ensure that every one has a job?”

[CodeToad]

Only an idiot thinks jobs should go to foreign nations that sell the products into the USA where no one has a job to buy those products.

Companies see the USA as a massive piggybank, and if they can only produce cheaper then they make more profit.

Like Apple, that brags of their massive hundreds of billions of dollars in profit but then proclaims they cannot possibly afford to produce their products in the USA. Typical liberals.

[baltimorepoet]

I’m all on board with going Denethir and jumping off of a tall cliff while on fire.

Actually less than 2 weeks ago I went skydiving for the first time and I came to 2 realizations that surprised me. One, that I don’t think I was afraid of heights anymore.

The second, was when I was in freefall and contemplating the possibility that the chute would not open, I didn’t feel fear, I felt great relief.