Posted on 05/02/2016 7:25:34 AM PDT by taildragger
Last week, Rasmussen Reports gave voters the option of staying home on Election Day if Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the big party nominees, and six percent (6%) said that’s what they intend to do for now. Clinton and Trump were tied with 38% support each; 16% said they would vote for some other candidate, and two percent (2%) were undecided.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Your post doesn’t indicate you are a Cruz supporter but I assume you are. When the campaign started, I too could have voted for Trump or Cruz but not now. Ted Cruz is an obvious sellout to the GOpe aside from being a liar. He wasn’t able to win the South at all during the Primary and he won’t win in the General Election. He says he is an “outsider” but he is not. If he were a patriot, he would stop his campaign and get behind Trump but I doubt that will happen. Trumps negatives are decreasing with women and I believe he will be easily elected in November.
Agreed. Here’s a new ad.
http://theresurgent.com/a-taste-of-the-general-election-to-come-for-senators/
I think the pollsters grossly underestimate the blue-collar Democrat cross-over vote for Trump. Especially the blue-collar union members who keep their mouths shut.
I wouldn’t trust any of these polls. If people think Trump has it in the bag they may not even show up.
Very dangerous.
That’s too close for comfort
I will give you another thing to think about:
Normal women privately do not like Hillary.
Oh yes the middle-aged-non-married-bitter-towards-men cohort do like her and want her to stick it to “the man”.
Black women like her, as do lesbians, some young, fat idealist feminists. Also older widows or divorced women who have no children.
Almost every other demographic of females seem to dislike her. Here is an open secret: most normal women prefer male bosses. If you ask them they all think they are unique in this, but if you dig down they think male bosses are fairer and will listen to them more than women bosses. It seems that most women fear a power-mad female boss more than they fear a male boss. Subtle put downs by female sin a position of authority bother women a lot more than male insensitivity.
Of course the great narrative pushed is that women all are waiting to burn their bra, ditch the patriarchy and the world will be made right when women run things....but most women I know who work or are married or have kids in the work force do not seem to reflect that narrative.
Now every women I know that is married and has kids have a fairly visceral dislike and distrust of Hillary.
Looking at the stats on the numbers of women in various groups I do not see how she gets more that 56% of the female vote. It might be as low as 54%
As regards the black vote. Like it or not most black males are not pussy whipped. A lot of the them will simply not vote for a white upper class women who is very preachy. I can see around 30~40 % of black makes not voting or pulling the Trump lever. Maybe 2 to 4 % of black females. The big deal Cruz is making about mike Tyson will help Trump with that demographic, not hurt him.
In any case a realistic pull of black votes for Trump is in the 14 to 17 % range.
I think Trumps white male vote total will be 68 to 73 %.
The Hispanic demographic is the only one I cannot get a feel for, the fact is Cubans will support Trump, Mexicans for the most part will vote Hillary at a 80% range and the rest I have no idea on but I suspect will go Hillary on the order of 66%. Frankly I do not think the data is out there to make a good analysis.
In any case the election will not be a blow out. Hillary has around 44~45 % of the electorate locked up, even if she ate a child during one of her rallies. The best Trump can expect to do is around 51~52%, but that would still be a solid win and if he actually makes America great again, well the next republican to follow a similar set of policies will be able to do a bit better.
Sorry to say it but Cruz looks far worse than Trump on all the demographics except conservative participation rate.
‘So how is it 41-39 if they both get 38% support?? Do I need a degree in Common Core math or something?’
Just going by the blurb, it’s 38-38 when respondents are given the option of staying home. When they’re told, ‘Suppose staying home is not an option? Who would you vote for?’—the totals become 41-Trump and 39-Hillary.
Beginning to remind me more and more of 1980.
BTW, given the "excellent" leadership of Mitch McConnel, how would I tell if the Dems won the Senatorial elections anyway?
But Karl Rove, Mitt Romney, and Lindsey Graham say Clinton gets over 60% of the vote vs. Trump in November, resulting in the biggest loss in the history of US Presidential elections.
Rove, Romney, and Graham, know the pulse of American voters. That’s why they were so successful running against Obama in 2008 & 2012.
Any women who is honest will tell you Fredrick of the nightmare female bosses they have had. It is all about the "Queen Bee's and the WannaBee's.
My guess is many women do not want Hillary as Queen-Bee, they know how awful she will be, they'll take the protective Alpha Male.
“As many have said, the more she is seen, the less people like her.”
this is one reason hillary speaks only at tiny venues and avoids the press in general. that and her serious heath issues.
hillary’s voice lacks intonation and emotion and sounds like gravel sliding down a tilted chalkboard. plus she speaks only in very tired cliches.
the speaking contrast between her and Trump is stunning.
Those push polls were all lies. As the Clinton/Trump match up becomes a reality, the pollsters must use more accurate polloing techniques. This poll shows Trump with 33% of Latinos, and 34% of women vs. Clinton at 44% of women. Hillary is the defacto incumbent, and would lose the majority of the undecided voters. And Trump hasn't even started challenging Hillary yet.
At this time, a Ted Cruz nomination in a contested convention would result in the biggest loss in the history of the Republican party.
Cruz would only beat Hillary in Texas, Oklahoma, Utah, Idaho, Montana and maybe Wyoming, but there's likely enough liberals in Jackdon Hole to turn the state to Hilary.
Cruz would lose the Supreme Court, Senate, and probably even the House to the Democrats.
Interesting how the polls are left out that show him at 9% wth Latino voters, 75% of all women won’t vote for him, and trailing Hillary by 9-11% in the General.
But hey, whatever helps one sleep at night I suppose.
The GOP is nominating a disaster and the results are going to be a disaster.
If Trump is a “disaster” what does that make Cruz? Disaster Trump is beating your favorite Cuban-Canadian-American like a drum in historic landslides. AT this rate Cruz will be lucky to hold his Senate seat. Far more Texans will vote Trump in November than ever voted for Cruz.
TRUMP vs Hillary(National) Rasmussen 4/27-4/28
Rasmussen Report: Trump 41%, Clinton 39%
TRUMP vs Hillary(National) Rasmussen 4/27-4/28, 1000 LV
TRUMP 41% | Hillary 39%
as My Analysis by Realistic Demographics
it would be TRUMP 52.08% | Hillary 47.92%
Details of My Analysis(Demographics)
TRUMP got 73% of the Republican / 15% of the Democrats / 37% of the Independents.
If I convert this poll as without Undecided/Vote for others.
1. TRUMP
1) Republican : 90.1% = 73% / 73%(TRUMP)+8%(Hillary)
2) Democrats : 16.3% = 15% / 15%(TRUMP)+77%(Hillary)
3) Independent : 54.4% = 37% / 37%(TRUMP)+31%(Hillary)
4) Election 2016, Realistic Demographic would be Republican 34% Democrats 38% Independent 28%.
5) Calculation :
34%(REP) X 90.1% + 38%(DEM) X 16.3% + 28%(Inde) x 54.5% = 52.08%
2. Hillary
100% - 52.08%(TRUMP) = 47.92%
Run, Bernie, run!!!
Thanks!
I agree, but it’s all about the electoral votes in the general.
So, what’s the math on that? Will we have the same swing states, or will Trump change that?
I was a Fiorina supporter, but will support Trump if he gets nomination, which he should at this point.
As far as Never-Trumps melting away, that is to be expected. In a battle, why would you show your cards during the primary? It’s all part of the game.
P.S. this is a general response to this thread and not directed at you, specifically.
I agree, but it’s all about the electoral votes in the general.
So, what’s the math on that? Will we have the same swing states, or will Trump change that?
I was a Fiorina supporter, but will support Trump if he gets nomination, which he should at this point.
As far as Never-Trumps melting away, that is to be expected. In a battle, why would you show your cards during the primary? It’s all part of the game.
P.S. this is a general response to this thread and not directed at you, specifically.
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