Posted on 07/15/2016 9:08:34 AM PDT by LS
There are a number of events erupting simultaneously, yet they are all connected. Many of you have commented on various threads about these in different ways. Let me (in a potpourris) address them.
1. The Islamic terrorist attack in Nice is more of the same; the French reaction is pretty much more of the same; and the US media reaction is typical head-in-the-sand, "Moslems don't kill people, trucks kill people" response. Will the French/Euros learn? They haven't so far, although a movement is building in France to finally take their country back---a French version of the "Reconquista." Too soon to see if it takes, and too early to know if France has found its pride and a spine.
2. Nice part deux: Obviously this only helps Trump. I saw a Tweet from a French young man last night, "I don't care who the Americans elect as long as it's not Hillary." The polls out earlier this week were STILL slanted, still heavily over-sampling Ds, and now had already shifted in Trump's direction. If the election were held today, Cankles would win . . . just barely, due to her lead in VA and a tie in OH. If OH and VA continue to go in Trump's direction, he already has the election no matter what CO and NV do. Right now he's ahead in PA, FL, IA, but losing VA, OH, CO, and NV would leave him down 20. Trump at this point really only needs to flip either CO or NV, plus either VA or OH to win. However, MI at 16 changes everything. Every time there is a Dallas BlacKKKlivesMatter (yes, they are a terrorist organization) or Moslem (yes, I'm using the old spelling because it offends them) murderous attack, Trump's numbers go up.
3. In many ways, this will be a "law and order" election a la 1968, except Trump will also have the trade and economic issues on his side, as well as the Moslem issue. When you combine that with Cankles' incredibly terrible "honesty" ratings, I really don't see how she even comes close in the electoral college, let alone wins. In my scenario above, if all those states come along, Trump would get to 330 EVs.
4. Pence: well, what can you say? All of you Freepers have had complaints of one sort or another about every potential veep. There is no getting around it. Having been a rock drummer, I remember two rules of showbiz:
The warmup can never upstage the headliner and stay on the tour, and the warmup always has to make the headliner look good.
Pence can do these. Moreover, while ALL politicians are ambitious, he doesn't strike me as frothing, rabidly ambitious the way Newt or Cruz do. Why is that important? There WILL be some talk of impeaching Trump the minute he does something decent (Moslem ban, building the Wall). This will go nowhere UNLESS there are a bunch of GOPe types who think they can get the veep to go along with the coup. Clearly Cruz would be such a person, and unfortunately I think Newt would too. (I never know how much of Newt is Newt and how much is Callista, but I don't minimize her potential for mischief). Pence, in this way, is safe. I don't think he's THAT ambitious.
4. The death of the "neverTrumpers" (please don't give them or the BlacKKKlivesMatter a hashtag of publicity if you tweet!) was a thing to behold. It came, in retrospect, REALLY easily and it shows several things. First, it shows how brilliant and focused Paul Manafort is and why Trump was 100% correct to sack Lewandowsky and put in Manafort. Manafort knew he had this rules vote, but nevertheless left no stone unturned in nailing down the votes. On Tues. neverTrumpers were thinking they could get 28 votes and Erick The Red Erickson was boasting about being able to get the vote.
They got 12. It wasn't close. Two of those were Mike Lee and his wife. This betrayal should NOT ever be forgotten. Anyway, this was a humiliation, not just a beating, for the neverTrumpers. Of course, little Benji Shapiro and Guy Benson are all over the place on Twitter posting as much anti-Trump stuff as they can. But it's clear who'se running the convention, and it ain't the GOPe.
5. Cruz: This guy continues to mystify me. He's supposed to be smart. A smart general knows when to retreat, rebuild your army and try again later. Cruz is not only burning up this year's campaign, but with all his scheming likely damaging his reelection in TX, which is darned hard to do for a conservative.
6. Just spoke with a GOP official in OH about the Qpoll, and he gave me a sad anecdote from 4 years ago. We had a black guy running for auditor. He had a black woman come up to him, give him a campaign check, and ask for a yard sign. After the election he saw her again and asked if she voted for him. She said, "You weren't on the slate." The Dems had gone to every black church each weekend during "early voting," had a lunch, then loaded people up into a bus to go vote, giving them an all-Dem slate card and telling them "We know how you vote." This is not fraud per se, but shows what a job the GOP has in getting people to these events with their own slate cards.
That said, I find it hard to believe that any voter who wanted to vote for Trump would be persuaded or even intimidated by a stupid slate card. We'll see. I'm doing follow-up research on polling of blacks in OH and actual final % in November.
Finally, the polls have definitely and consistently shifted in Trump's direction. He still doesn't lead in a lot where he needs to lead, but again, if you adjust for "likely" voters instead of "registered" or "adults," Trump is probably ahead in almost every poll. I cannot figure out the methodology of a poll that says it polled "1300 adults and 1000 registered voters." What does that mean? They only COUNTED the registered? They interviewed 2300 people? We know that "adults" are about 4 points to the left of the final result, and that "registered" are about 2 points off. So anything with Cankles +2 or tied is already a Trump lead. And, again, most of these are done (still) with heavy D samples. (The Monmouth poll of IA was actually pretty accurate, D+5 with Trump up 2).
A smart candidate wouldn't have thrown in with Glenn Beck in one of Beck's nutcase moods.
Those antitrumps are like zombies. Think they’re dead, and they keep coming back. From Unruh’s FBPage
Kendal Casey Unruh
7 hrs ·
Finally I have a minute to give an update. Be of good cheer, this battle has just started. Despite the thousands of emails that patriotic Americans lobbied the rules committee with, Trump refused to even allow debate and the conscience clause died.
I tried to follow the rules and the decorum of the process. But the rules committee is 100% irrelevant to the binding movement. I have until Monday to collect signatures for a minority report.
Nothing has changed in our planning phase to unbind the delegates. This now moves from a free the delegates phase to a “delegates unbound” phase. Because even though they put every binding rule they could in the rules, it means one thing, they know we have the numbers to unbind.
NOW it is in the hands of all of you to exercise your God given right to conscience. A reporter asked “Why do you seem so upbeat after your defeat? “ And I responded, “It’s not a defeat. It’s the starting line. Now the delegates themselves will have to take the baton.” God is always in control. Don’t stop praying.
Nope. And that is the exact moment his campaign began to stutter. He traded all future credibility for a bit of drama in Iowa.
As a Christian, it is offensive to me to label ambition as a holy mandate.
I supported Cruz on issues and what I thought was integrity. Now I do not.
Franklin, Jefferson, Adams and others were not were not evangelical Christians but were clearly used by God in shaping this republic--perhaps the Lord will mercifully do it again...
Question if you have seen anything on it.
Did Heidi Suzanne Cruz return to work at Goldman-Sachs?
I believe in prophetic words. I believe that a prophetic word can be applied to politics and candidates, but there have been just as many prophetic words about Trump winning.
BTW, I think it was Kenneth Hagin in the 80s who prophesied we would be involved in two wars with Iraq. The first he said would go very well, the second very badly.
Your observations are something I have been seeing and thinking about for awhile now. Any student of history knows that what is past is prologue. Your reference to Madrid is spot on. I would also reference England in 1937.
Some of us see what might be coming down the road. Currently, it is at a slow pace, but picking up speed.
I do not believe that politics can solve the problems. The world is about to explode again.
Sorry, I have read nothing on Hidey Heidi, whether she is still in recovery or back rocking along with the Goldman agenda.
I work on the hope that disaster can be averted.
I’ve read too much history to think the odds are much in our favor.
Behind every blade of grass . . .
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