Posted on 07/23/2016 10:57:36 AM PDT by AndyTheBear
I have found a definite trend where likely voter polls favor Trump and register voter polls favor Clinton.
For the recent rolling polls included in RealClearPolitics, the average has Clinton up 2.7%. If you include only LV polls, Trump is up 0.5%. This trend is not just with the recent polls though. I wrote a quick python script and copy pasted all the polls since 8/15 when Clinton and Trump were first in the same ballpark in polling. And found the trend continues all the way through. Break down in first comment since I need to format it:
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Can you post a link to the Gravis poll?
At this point if the polls show a tight race the candidate that everyone already knows is in big trouble unless the new candidate tanks himself.
There are much bigger cracks in the voting base of one of the candidates than the other.
70% of Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction. One candidate promises to stay the course and try more of the same and one promises new ideas and a different approach.
One candidate is seen as a politician and one is not.
One candidate draws big enthusiastic crowds and one does not draw crowds.
One attracts new voters and one does not. One is getting cross-over supporters and the other won’t.
One of them has energy and the other does not.
One has a stench of corruption.
These are the trends -
Trump has much more upside at this point heading into the final lap of the campaign. The polls in about a month - after the convention dust has settled and the campaigns begin in earnest will reflect this.
Hillary is on the defensive in states the DNC takes for granted. She is in big trouble and I could not be happier about it. She is the one who has been spending money and it’s been ineffective. Her numbers don’t change.
Always check who they polled.
The ONLY polls to even bother to look at are
“Likely Voters” and “Very Likely Voters” PERIOD!!!
You have to check every poll.
“Registered Voters is USELESS! HALF of “registered voters” WILL NOT VOTE. So who cares what they think, if they don’t vote?
If you see a poll of “registered voters”, print it, crumple it up, and use it for toilet paper. At least then, it won’t be totally useless.
whoa....someone’s been snoopin @ FR
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/3451151/posts?page=6#6
Hopefully that holds true. That’s generally the case for the GOP over the years. Registered voter polls usually go more our way. The only question is how each organization polls to determine who is likely. There’s the magic of a good poll.
Right on:
Not all polls are created equally and unless you are able to probe into the mechanics (weighting by party, order of the questions and how they are phrased) most of these “results” are merely a mishmash of unverifiable measurements.
I’ve been saying that since Day 1 of the polling of Trump v Clinton. The polls of Registered voters always show Clinton way ahead. But when they poll Likely voters, the numbers change dramatically.
Don’t be so sure that Hillary will get a bump. Look who she is inviting to speak at the convention—the mothers of ghetto thugs who were all victims of the man. This is a bad miscalculation on the Democrats part. The Dem party is being described as a party of the fringes and not the middle. I have heard many Democrats say that their party is not the party of JFK any more. After next weeks pandering to Thugs-R-Us many Democrats will say enough and will enthusiastically vote for Trump.
The Democrat party has an arrogance that I have seen for many years, they believe that they can lie their way out of anything and that people are endlessly stupid. Well, I think they just found the limits to their voters’ stupidity.
I think many people were watching since the three networks had the convention on at 10 to 11. An hour is good enough for people who have a limited toleration for politics. And Trump gave a really strong speech talking about law and order, terrorism and the economy. Between now and November the world will be exposed to more violence and chaos and people will be waking up all over the place. When things get dangerous people want a strong leader and that is exactly what Trump is.
Right at this point, I cannot find an exact url link—but the poll is posted currently on real clear politics under latest polls where you can click onto a pdf. The poll is also featured today on Trump’s facebook page, about the third posting of today.
My second favorite political blog—after FR—is tigerdroppings associated with Louisiana State University and they have a couple threads regarding this poll as well.
If I find a link, I will share it asap.
Hope you’re right.
68 convention was a flop/PR- disaster
maybe history will repeat
The Democrats have made it really easy for people to register such as when they register their cars or they sign up for welfare. They make it easy because they know many of their voters are lazy and disaffected but you can’t make people really care. Also, this year many non voters are signing up and supporting Trump. Many Americans are finally waking up and I believe that they will be paying attention from now on.
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