Posted on 07/27/2016 4:13:56 PM PDT by Innovative
Political analyst Nate Silver’s latest forecast has Republican nominee Donald Trump with a 15 percentage point-greater chance of beating presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton if the election were held today, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Silver's "now-cast," updated with fresh surveys on Monday, shows Trump's current likelihood of winning at 57.5 percent, compared with Clinton’s 42.5 percent. In the 11 battleground states, Colorado, Virginia and Michigan would go to Clinton, while Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Iowa would go to Trump.
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
It will all depend on turnout. Voters need to get out and vote for Trump to overcome all those dead voters voting for Hillary.
WOOHOO!!! PING!!!
I think this forcast is about right, but it’s still possible that Virginia will go for Trump.
Mondays forcats favored Trump. It took on Nate only two days to “be with Her” again. Now gives Hillary a 52% chance of winning
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Unfortunately, today’s update at fivethirtyeight.com show a prediction of Hillary win.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
But as I said before — it will all depend on turnout ultimately.
Let em know they can vote on Wednesday this year....
I hear Venezuela is looking for a new corrupt, socialist dictator. Hill may have better luck down there.
And with no extradition treaty to US
only will happen when RINOs like Ryan stop helping her.
Ignore all polls
Get Out The Vote
There are three versions of the forecast
1. Polls plus history
2. Polls only
3. NOW (e.g., if the election were held right now.
the “NOW version has been predicting a Trump win for the last 3 days.
Here is the 19:10 eastern time version for today (to refresh the page, go to the home page and enter from there for the latest update).
55.4% Trump / 44.6% Hilary
:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#now
His ego (and that of most pollsters) is more tied up with being right than with any candidate, I think.
Pollsters are kind of like hired guns (the real pollsters, not the party hacks)... like a baseball or football player, they would rather be GOOD than really care what ‘team’ they are on. I know when I worked as one, my boss was all about being more accurate than anyone else, like a pitcher is going to throw his best game even against the team from his home town...
Just my observation, but I bet Nate would rather be dead on about a Trump victory than wrong about a Hillary one... I think it’s taken nearly EVERYONE a bit of time to assess Trump
If the ugly reality of the world today doesn’t change for the better Trump will win. Three to four terrorist events in Europe on a weekly basis will freak people out. Trump will benefit from this. Reality is not changing any time soon. Words can sway people’s votes but ugly reality pushes them to the strong horse.
538 had included yesterday’s NBC poll
Yuuuuge
Let’s not only hope, but also pray for Trump’s success.
It’s going to be close.
It’s also hard to measure all the democrat’s corruption.
Ignore all polls
Get Out The Vote
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New Trump voter in my family, my youngest daughter will be 18 in October!
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