Posted on 08/13/2016 11:05:58 AM PDT by usafa92
There's been a lot of concern about the polling floating around this week. I am about the biggest Trump apologist going and I too am a bit concerned. That said, I wanted to provide a little perspective on the polls and hopefully alleviate some concern for the moment using historical context.
Essentially, we have two strata of polls. The media polls which have generally placed Clinton with a 8-10 pt lead, and the internet based polls (Reuters, UPI/CVoter, and USC) which have generally been in the even to +6 range. USC is reverting to a larger gap no doubt due to the 2A flap. However one wants to cut it, Trump is down. We can talk about sample sizes, sample mix, D+ whatever, but he is probably down about 5 right now. The media has buried him, his party wants to abandon him, but the people don't. Now, is Trump being down a problem? Not necessarily.
Generally speaking, almost every Presidential election has had the Democratic candidate in the lead through most of the summer (or the incumbent, which Hillary is de facto - and Bush was generally ahead in 2004). Let's look at the most referenced election in overcoming polling deficits, that being the 1988 election. We all know that Bush was down 18 points in July. However, he was still down by 7 points throughout August and did not take the lead in the polls until September. In 2000, things were a bit more even, but Al Gore led basically the entire month of September, at times by up to 10 points. Bush did not really pull ahead until October. In 1992, Bill Clinton led throughout, except for a brief flirt at the top from Perot. But in July and August, he led by 20 points or more and ended up winning by 6. Of course, there are other examples of candidates who were down and never recovered. Bob Dole, who was never really in it, was down consistently by 20+ points but still only lost by 8.
So while Trump has had a rough few weeks (coordinated attacks from the DNC and media), historically, we are really not in any different territory than usual. Trump has made some unforced errors, has worried many with the lack of advertising, and the moronic Never Trumpers are not helping, but at the end of the day, he is in not as bad a shape as it may appear.
I have been watching the USC, UPI/CVoter, and Reuters polls especially. To me, those are (excluding pollster manipulations), the best at identifying daily trends as well as identifying hidden Trump votes since they are online polls. So, keep the faith, we have a long way to go. 87 days until the election and about 60 days until early voting. Anything can and will happen. Have a great weekend and MAGA!!
Only a RINO would call themselves a ‘Trump Apologist”
I am a Trump supporter or Trump defender.
Big BS alert.
TWB
Quite true is liberals who do these skew them for Hillary. They do lie and Trump brings it out of them more than anyone.
Lying is their nature.
Don’t bother with the day-to-day polls.
Just follow this: http://election.princeton.edu/
Yeah, they hate Trump- all political science people seem to- but they ‘give good count’ as the saying goes.
The GOPe is a bigger threat to use right now than the rats.
I am thinking the same thing
Also Trump isn’t buying polls either, he is actually relying on the MSM polls, ugh
He is running a different type of campaign, perhaps a winning one?
I think he likes the rally approach, he seems to love getting 10,000-15,000 capacity venues and just give his “off the cuff” stump speech. He seems more genuine and real doing this. Whereas a commercial just makes him another plastic politician.
He is using a different strategy and the media is upset that he isn’t showering them with tons of free cash. Hence the constant attacks and rigged media polls
EXACTLY! they are driving off independents we need to win in droves!! hellery doesnt have to do a damn thing.. the GOPe is doing it for her!
and Trump himself is not helping by saying the system is “rigged”... well gee thanks, I guess I will just stay home and not vote then!!
sigh...
They have been trying to take Trump out early since they realized he was threat in January, it hasn’t worked. I think Trump made a huge first impression on the country in June of 2015 and he has a solid 45% base who are going to vote for him no matter what. Can Hillary say that? nope, her numbers are getting eaten up by Stein and Johnson, plus she sucks as a candidate and 60% of America thinks she should be in prison.
Trumps numbers are actually really good for a guy that the MSM attacks constantly and lies about daily. Heck their MSM polls, even after being rigged in Hillary’s favor only put him a couple points behind.
A couple points behind is not a “meltdown” someone needs to tell Time Magazine that.....
Here’s polling accuracy from 2012 compared to the actual election result.
2012 Polling Accuracy (Obama won by 3.9%). A poll that is within a +/- 3 point statistical margin of error is considered to be an “accurate” poll.
Actual Election Result-Obama: 51.1%/Romney-47.2%
Final polls released before the 2012 Election
Politico/GWU/Battleground-(O)47-(R)47
Rasmussen Reports-(R)49%-(O)48
IDB/TIPP-(O)50-(R)49
YouGov/Economist-(O)49-(R)47
Gravis Marketing- (R)48-(O)48
JZAnalytics/Newsmax-(O)50-(R)49
UPI/CVoter-(O)49-(R)48
Ipsos/Reuters-(O)48-(R)46
Associated Press/GfK-(R)47-(O)45
Rand-(O)50-(R)46
CNN/Opinion Research-(R)49-(O)49
Gallup-(R)50-(O)49
ABC News/Washington Post-(O)50-(R)47
Monmouth University-(O)48-(R)48
*DailyKos/SIEU/PPP-(O)50-(R)48
*Democracy Corps-(O)49-(R)45
Angus Reid-(O)51-(R)48
NBC News/Wall Street Journal-(O)48-(R)47
Pew Research-(O)50-(R)47
Quinnipiac U. Polling Institute-(O)49-(R)45
CBS News/New York Times-(O)48-(R)47
National Journal-(O)50-(R)45
Fox News (R)46-(O)46
*Daily Kos/SIEU/PPP & Democracy Corps poll for Democrats only
worked for a Congressional candidate in the 1980’s (R) who was running in a district that was 85% Democrat. This seat had not been held by a Republican since the Civil War. The media and polls buried us and it looked bleak. We kept on, regardless and when the polls closed on election night, we got about 1100 more votes that they did out of a total of 212,000 votes cast.
This race can, and will be won by Mr. Trump.
I follow politics as closely as anyone on FR, and I have no idea why everyone is saying his campaign is imploding. Day after day. Hillary’s campaign is imploding, not Trump’s.
another plastic politician.
He is using a different strategy and the media is upset that he isn’t showering them with tons of free cash. Hence the constant attacks and rigged media polls
...........................................................
I agree. They are trying to push him into lining their pockets with ad cash. He is going directly to the people and I think he is absolutely right.
“and Trump himself is not helping by saying the system is “rigged”... well gee thanks, I guess I will just stay home and not vote then!!”
Well...I don’t agree with that AT ALL.
Trump repeating that the system is rigged is the very smartest thing he can do. Pointing out that the political system is rigged is another way of saying that the power that is meant for the electorate has been stolen by elites who rigged the system. It makes people angry - it focuses them on the importance of their vote.
It does NOT make people give up and stay home. Not normal people.
I agree with you. It DOES make people angry and more determined.
didnt help the Burn much saying that...
to me it just depresses the overall vote. And we need every vote we can get.
People like US here in FR land are gonna vote Trump no matter what... but a lot of reg folk hear the constant bad news, polls are bad, campaign mistakes, and your vote doesnt count, well that will surely fire them up...
we can disagree on this I guess...
2 Chr 20:15 (NLT):
15 He said, “Listen, all you people of Judah and Jerusalem! Listen, King Jehoshaphat! This is what the Lord says: Do not be afraid! Don’t be discouraged by this mighty army, for the battle is not yours, but God’s."
We discuss, debate, and argue about the election ad nauseam, but none of that is really going to change anything. Let's keep praying diligently, and let God figure this thing out.
And ‘final’ polls are much closer than earlier polls.
Saw a chart of polling through many of the last elections and except for 2008 Dems always got many points less than the summer polls said and Rs many more. Like high single digits.
No, can’t find it now but it’s around.
Sorry, that site is crap. It runs all the anti-trump memes and does the same stupid poll summaries that average all the gaslight polls together. If you are looking for something with a novel tracking system which appears a little more sane:
This ABC Live poll is still running. Trump is carrying 70% of the votes. It’s a one vote per computer poll.
http://abcnewsgo.co/2016/08/abc-live-poll-who-are-you-voting-for/#respond
I want to add that people NEED to get angry about the rampant fraud! If people get angry, rather than apathetic, it just might drive people to volunteer to be poll watchers and poll challengers. Anybody who cares about this election and all the democrat fraud needs to call their county chairman and tell them they want to be a poll watcher. Better yet, many counties try to have an equal number of republican and democrat poll workers, that is, poll clerks and judges. People need to get involved working at the polls as well. It’s not a big investment of time, and often it’s a paid position. Having republicans and Trump supporters working or watching at every single polling place is probably the most significant thing we can do to stop voter fraud.
Here are the results of the ABC Live poll:
Donald Trump (69%, 62,233 Votes)
Jill Stein (14%, 12,862 Votes)
Gary Johnson (11%, 10,113 Votes)
Hillary Clinton (6%, 5,069 Votes)
Darrell Castle (0%, 392 Votes)
Total Voters: 90,669
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