Posted on 08/20/2016 3:00:58 PM PDT by Hojczyk
Clinton leads Trump by 8-points– in poll that interviewed 16% more Democrats
Because this feature is proving popular, here’s another installment of my look at the media’s reporting on presidential polling. This article reports “Clinton leads Trump by eight points” in the latest online Reuters/lpsos poll.
Like the other polls I’ve recently highlighted, the Reuters/lpsos poll appears to have interviewed significantly more Democrats than Republicans. This is not disclosed in the news articles.
According to data on p. 14 of the poll, 46% of the respondents identify as Democrats (strong, moderate or leaning) and 30% identify as Republicans (strong, moderate or leaning).
Assuming 16% more Democrats than Republicans turn out to vote in the November general election, the results may correlate with the poll. But what if an equal number from each party turns out? What if more Republicans than Democrats vote? Obviously, that could change the results, the same way this poll would likely read differently had it interviewed 16% more Republicans. There’s no indication that the poll has adjusted for this factor (though it has adjusted for factors such as gender, age and education).
Clinton leads Trump by 8-points in poll that interviewed 16% more Democrats
Further, what effect might it have for the voting population to hear one poll after another declare a candidate far ahead–without the disclosure that the sample was heavy on one party? Do the polls and reporting risk influencing the electorate by providing an incomplete picture, rather than accurately measuring the trends?
As continuing evidence that it’s possible to make poll results look more or less favorable to a candidate, this poll was universally portrayed as favorable to Hillary Clinton. But Donald Trump actually receives more of the independent vote among both likely and registered voters.
(Excerpt) Read more at sharylattkisson.com ...
As we’ve been saying. Over sampling of dems to get the desired result.
God bless and protect this honest woman!
The polls are there to project voter fraud...
Watch for the “independent voters” — traditionally treated as almost holy by the MSM — to suddenly be portrayed as marginal cranks.
The over sampling of Dems is usually correct. More Dems are showing their support for a candidate. All in all the polls generally say Trump is getting beat and he needs to right the ship. This is OK. The campaign is really just getting started. Labor Day it really starts to count.
These polls are trying to be accurate. Drives me nuts when everyone cries that the polls are wrong when it doesn’t favor their candidate.
I just heard on FOX News of a new poll out that is NOT good for TRUMP
Wonder if they’re talking about this oversampled Reuters poll?!!
Ignore all media
Just like Brexit
Get Out The Vote
what was the percentage of dems vs republicansin 2012?
“As we’ve been saying. Over sampling of dems to get the desired result.”
Yesiree that is what they are doing. Pretty soon it will be 50% dimoKKKRATS.
Don’t know, but it has more to do with who people participate in the polls. Maybe a lot of Republicans tell the pollster to pound sand.
oh snap, another ping to Sharyl’s List Upchuck :)
Sharyl Attkisson Ping!
Amazon link to Sharyl's latest book.
Good news! Sharyl is now hosting "Full Measure," a half-hour Sunday morning talk show on the Sinclair network. More info.
Want on or off this ping list? Just drop me a FReep mail.
According to Fox, there is no poll anywhere that is good for Trump.
We know from the primaries, that in states like Pennsylvania and Florida, many dems changed their registration to republican in order to vote for Trump. These factors are obvi not taken into account either.
Dems turnout higher. By 16 points? Really?
According to the 2012 exit polls the electorate was 38% Dem, 32% Republican, 29% Independent.
America is about to have a yuge “Temper Tantrum” (or is it a “Trumper Tantrum”? in November. I hope the margin is yuuuge!
“Clinton leads Trump by 8-points in poll that interviewed 16% more Democrats “
That actually grossly understates the bias.
46% of those polled were D, while only 30% were R. 46 is 50.333% greater than 30. IOW, 50% more Ds than Rs were polled.
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