Posted on 09/16/2016 3:56:40 PM PDT by mandaladon
Hillary Clinton’s lead in the polls has been declining for several weeks, and now we’re at the point where it’s not much of a lead at all. National polls show Clinton only 1 or 2 percentage points ahead of Donald Trump, on average. And the state polling situation isn’t really any better for her. On Thursday alone, polls were released showing Clinton behind in Ohio, Iowa and Colorado — and with narrow, 3-point leads in Michigan and Virginia, two states once thought to be relatively safe for her.
It’s also become clearer that Clinton’s “bad weekend” — which included describing half of Trump supporters as a “basket of deplorables” on Friday, and a health scare (followed by news that she had been diagnosed with pneumonia) on Sunday — has affected the polls. Prior to the weekend, Clinton’s decline had appeared to be levelling off, with the race settling into a Clinton lead of 3 or 4 percentage points. But over the past seven days, Clinton’s win probability has declined from 70 percent to 60 percent in our polls-only forecast and by a similar amount, from 68 percent to 59 percent, in our polls-plus forecast.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
“Help, I’ve fallen and can’t get up !”
-Hillary Clinton
Sept. 11, 2016
Pansy Nate crying for much more fake polling.
Hillary does not have a 1-2 pt lead nationally. Trump has passed her there, in the 4-5 pt range. It’s the Electoral college that is a toss-up right now. But once the state polls catch up to the current national polls (the decent national polls, not the blatant D+10/D+12 polls), Trump should be in the 300 EV territory with a chance for it to expand.
SWMNBP is looking at a long downward slide in the polls.
Nobody likes her and now she has promised to give the country to fraudulently documented foreigners.
(She Who Must Never Be President)
It sounds like Nate Silver is a poll smoker ;)
Bill and the Felon can barely fill a high school gym for her rallies. This too will blow over.
Nate Silver is hedging his ass!
Hillary is done.
The Matt Lauer appearance also helped Trump. It wasn’t just “deplorable” comment or her fainting.
Since Trump is ahead and Silver still projects the Hitlery Jalopy to win, I suspect he adds in fraud on her side, otherwise I am confused.
His site is actually the most favorable to Trump of any of the poll aggregator sites.
He’s a liberal but he doesn’t want to be embarrassed like when he ridiculed Trump becoming the GOP nominee.
No one likes Hillary, especially his fellow liberals.
Her “pickles moment” went a long way, too.
Regarding Matt Lauer and that forum :
Anyone else struck by the reaction of liberals to Hillary’s poor performance and Trump’s good showing??? Rather than addressing Hillary’s shortcomings and bad performance, I stead the liberals attacked Matt Lauer for his allegedly not conducting the forum properly.
So we see that to the liberals, nothing can be the faukt of Hillary or her positions. Every problem faced by Hillary must be blamed on some outside force or someone else.
Hillary’s a terrible candidate.
How exactly was Matt Lauer supposed to make her look good when she’s unlikable and unpopular?
And don’t get me started with untrustworthy.
Poor Nate he is panicking just like the rest of the liberal Commie loons you see on television today..gee Nate I thought you were supposed to be “Unbiased” I know I know I made a funny
He is liberal, but seems to be earnest in his attempt to assess polling data.
The methodology at the site is better than that of the others, in my opinion as a statistical practitioner.
For example, for the other aggregator sites such as NYT, the distribution of expected outcomes appears to be normally distributed. 538 assumes that certain states will move together due to the underlying demographic composition and voting behavior. The result is a non-normal empirical distribution of electoral outcomes. I think this makes sense.
In a week, the polls are going to look a lot worse for the Democrats.
Awwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww...
I’m glad I’m drinking some wine. Now i have an excuse for not understanding what you said.
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