Posted on 09/17/2016 9:11:32 AM PDT by Hojczyk
An election analysis conducted in the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project shows that the race has tightened considerably over the past few weeks, with Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump projected to win Florida, an essential battleground state, if the election were held today.
The project, which is based on a weekly tracking poll of more than 15,000 Americans, shows that the 2016 presidential race could end in a photo finish on Nov. 8, with the major-party candidates running nearly even in the Electoral College, the body that ultimately selects the president.
The States of the Nation project, which delivers a weekly tally of support for the candidates in every state, shows that the race has tightened in several traditional battlegrounds. Pennsylvania has been moved from a likely win for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton to a tossup; Ohio has been moved from a tossup to a likely win for Clinton.
And Florida is now considered a likely win for the Republican nominee, with 50 percent support for Trump to 46 percent support for Clinton. If the election were held today, the project estimates that Clinton has a 60 percent chance of winning by 18 electoral votes. Last week, the project estimated that Clinton had a 83 percent chance of winning the election.
(Excerpt) Read more at yahoo.com ...
Reverse the names and now the poll makes a lot of sense.
It isn’t that Hillary regained the lead; rather Trump moved from a tie into the lead!
But don’t expect the morons at Reuters-Ipsos to admit they screwed up their numbers to benefit Hillary.
First, the story doesn’t match the Drudge headline (what’s new?) and secondly, it doesn’t say Trump has “caught” Clinton, only that it has tightened. In addition, it has some very odd numbers making the whole conclusion untrustworthy.
The only poll that matters is the one we cast in November. Until then, the score is 0-0.
Ohio for Clinton? Seems odd with everything else going on.
Because you are absolutely correct. It is a blatant lie. Trump will walk away with Ohio.
Right. No way he can be ahead in Pennsylvania and behind in Ohio. This tells me he is on the path of a landslide.
If any one wants to offer an alternative to my theory, I’m all ears.
Its elegant and simple and conforms to Occam’s Razor.
Reverse the names and now the poll makes a lot of sense.
It isn’t that Hillary regained the lead; rather Trump moved from a tie into the lead!
But don’t expect the morons at Reuters-Ipsos to admit they screwed up their numbers to benefit Hillary.
Right! And Reuters changed the special sauce after the primary conventions too, so who knows what the numbers are really showing.
This is an online poll and is total garbage- whether it shows Trump tied or ahead- it's 100% online and useless
Trump is on a ROLL... Just needs to spend on ads to get his negatives down
I should modestly add that even with my unscrewed Reuters-Ipsos poll, Trump’s numbers are way off. You can add several points to them and he’s probably up by 8 to 10 points.
Hillary is done.
Trump is ahead in NV, FL, OH, CO, Iowa, AZ, and within striking distance of MI, PA, VA, NH.. Any objective measure would conclude that he is AHEAD!!
This is an online poll and is total garbage- whether it shows Trump tied or ahead- it’s 100% online and useless
Trump is on a ROLL... Just needs to spend on ads to get his negatives down
My daughter came up to me thinking Trump was gonna get beat bad by Hillary after seeing a Hillary ad. I explained to her that Trump is up now, she will vote Trump :). She is a young non-informed voter that gets her information from TV, so these folks can be won over just gotta get ads out to counter Hillary ads.
Yeah, but she tripped, lost her shoe, nearly fell flat on her face.
Now, she’s resting up for the debates.
{cough} {cough} And she is recovering from pneumonia.
==
I wouldn’t even want to be a fly on the wall at Team Clinton HQ, what with all the flying ashtrays and such.
I think that the absolute best thing that happened this week is the “deplorables” comment.
She must be horrified at the fun we are having with it.
I now call myself an adorable deplorable.
.
.
Why are the polls so different?
I am very familiar with the USC/LAT poll. This poll has been spot on in several CA state races as well as the national 2012 election, and gives Trump his bests results so far.
Trump’s surge the past week is not a result of Clinton voters, or any voters, changing sides, but rather a result of the level of commitment to voting for their respective candidates. Apparently, the “deplorable” comment energized the Trump people, and Clinton’s illness demoralized her people. Because the likelihood of voting is key to this poll, Trump had a bigger surge than seen in other polls.
We should expect the race to tighten as these events are more in the past. On tracking polls, Trump’s great days of the past week will fall off to be replaced by future “snapshots”.
Time will tell if this happens, altho the Reuters poll showed Clinton back in a 4 point lead, after having the race tied last week.
The debate is key for Trump. People expect Clinton to know policy - not so with Trump. Clinton and Dems will try to bait Trump by calling him fat or by challenging his intelligence, or what ever. Trump must not take the bait ( has he did with Reid yesterday) and look and act Presidential. If he can do so, and show knowledge of the issues, the debate may put him in the White House. The first debate will be the most watched event since the moon landing.
Lastly, both USC and the LAT are big time liberal institutions. Yet the people who run this poll are serious professionals, as I suspect the people who run the vast majority of polls are. There is no “fix” here, folks. They want to have bragging rights on elections day, much more than they want a particular candidate to win.
Awesome news. Every vote taken away from Hillary and going to Trump is one more vote added to the landslide tally
Hillary won’t regain the lead.
At 38%, its over. Don’t take my word for it.
Look up various state polls for her bottom line number.
Its a political catastrophe and not something the debates would fix for her.
And you know I’m right.
“Reuters is BS”
Yep. Remember Reuters was on the “friendly” list of people per the hacked DNC emails.
I proudly display my "NeverHillary" bumper sticker, along with a pro-police sticker
The floodgates of fear seem to have dissipated and people are become more open with Trump support... Safety in numbers... While I don't think Trump will win CT, I think he'll make it close enough for her to spend $.
I do know that Trump outperformed his poll numbers consistently through the primary season. I also know that Bernie Sanders won several primaries that nobody thought he would win (Michigan, for example).
It tells you there’s zero enthusiasm for Hillary in a safe Blue State.
You can only imagine her reception in her adopted home state of New York.
If she’s really polling 38%, a lot of Blue States could be won by Trump.
On November 8, we’ll know for sure one of two things: Trump will win states no GOP candidate has won for a generation or its a nail-biter race like the Bush-Gore race in 2000.
I’m betting the former scenario is more likely to be true.
It is a movement! And Donald Trump is going to win states on November 8th that nobody thought a Republican would ever win again.
I have to tell you this - and it may come as a surprise to some - Crooked Hillary absolutely HATES the fact that Donald Trump is poised to beat her badly. She HATES it! She thought she had this election won and all she had to do was lie around at her home in her baggy pantsuit and run out the clock. She thought that Chrissy Matthews and the rest of the lapdog media would feed her grapes and hand her pewter cups of distilled liquids from now until Nov 8th while she lounged around on her air mattress. Lying on an AIR MATTRESS while being hand fed grapes and spirits! That's what she had envisioned.
I must say, Donald Trump has definitely ruined her plans. And she HATES him for it!
I hope so. As far as I know, Hitlery is ahead.
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