Election Update: Reports Of A Clinton Rebound Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

Five Thirty Eight ^ | 09/22/2016 | Harry Enton

[nhwingut]

Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the White House are still near an all-time low in the FiveThirtyEight forecasts, although they’re up a smidge from earlier in the week. Our polls-only forecast gives her a 59 percent chance of beating Donald Trump, while our polls-plus model shows her with a 58 percent chance.

Some interested parties are pointing to individual polls as evidence of a Clinton rebound, but a closer look at all the data released over the past three days suggests that those people are stretching.

[jetson]

Nevada has her winning odds at 2/1.

[Rusty0604]

Good info. Thank you.

[Voluntaryist]

Yeah, not sure why he changed Nevada to blue. No new polls from Nevada since +Trump ones...

[Rusty0604]

Short it.

[nhwingut]

Lib pollsters complaining about some of those polls not including enough Hispanics. Not sure if related.

[Voluntaryist]

538 Nevada page looks like this

[Voluntaryist]

Thanks

[AU72]

A dead bitch bounce?

[Mjreagan]

Illegals don’t have landlines

[LongWayHome]

Well, Nate is being real here & pointing out how some of these pro-Hillary polls are suspect. Something most everyone out here already knows.

[Gay State Conservative]

Was it the NY Slimes or the Washington Compost that recently admitted that “journalists” are so frightened by the prospect of a Trump victory that they now *admit* to working for The Former Twelfth Lady?

[God luvs America]

this is going to leave a mark...

[fortheDeclaration]

They also had the anti-Brexit vote winning as well.

[nhwingut]

It is odd though. If you look at all the polls. It's a lot more red than blue.

[SoFloFreeper]

Wow. For 538, a liberal group, to say this, is incredible.

[nhwingut]

They just updated Nevada.

[jetson]

I’m saying Nevada casinos are saying Hillary wins the presidency 2/1 odds.

[Voluntaryist]

Ooohhhhhhhhh thank you lol