Posted on 10/16/2016 7:50:57 PM PDT by justlittleoleme
FULL TITLE: Ohio Poll Shows Trump Leading Ohio by 6.67% Pre-Debate, Trump then Gains 4% while Clinton Loses 1% After the Debate
Akron, OH – The We the People Convention today announced the results of a two part Ohio poll of likely voters. The poll was intended to determine voter preferences in the presidential election prior to the debate on Sunday, October 9, 2016, but after the Trump tapes and the WikiLeaks emails were leaked on Friday, October 7, 1016, and then after the debate was over. The original poll on Saturday, October 8, 2016 of 1,539 Ohio voters showed that Donald Trump was winning Ohio by 6.67%, preferred by 46.34% of voters versus Hillary Clinton’s 39.67%. These results reflect the fact that 91% of respondents indicted that they were aware of the contents of the Trump audio tape that was released the day before the poll, while only 66% of the respondents were aware of the comments made by Clinton to bankers in the email released that same day. A strong 75% of the respondents said that they expected to watch the presidential debate the next day.
A follow-up poll was then conducted on Tuesday, October 11, 2016 of the previous polls respondents to see if they had changed their position after the debate. Of the original 1,539 respondents, 473 took the second poll. The results were that Donald Trump has gained 4% and Hillary Clinton had lost 1% of their support after the debate. A total of 50.22% supported Trump in the second poll while 38.47% said they supported Clinton. That gave Trump a lead of 11.75% post debate.
The first poll was conducted on Saturday, October 8, 2016 between 3:30 PM and 6:30 PM EDT. Calls were placed to 45,105 randomly selected voters from our data base of 4.5 million current land line phone numbers in Ohio. Of those called, 1,539 respondents completed the survey, a 3.4% response rate. The poll has a margin of error of ± 2.46% at the 95% confidence level. Of the respondents surveyed, 38.46% vote Democrat and 38.67% vote Republican and 52% were women and 48% men. Results were gathered from 87 of the 88 Counties in Ohio. Every age group from 21 year olds to 90 year olds were surveyed.
The followup poll was conducted on Tuesday, October 11, 2016, between 6:30 and 7:00 PM EDT. Calls were placed to 1,539 respondents to a previous poll conducted on October 8, 2016. A total of 473 took this followup poll, which is 30.07%. The poll has a margin of error of ± 3.75% at the 95% confidence level. Of the respondents to the followup poll, 36.78% vote Democrat and 39.11% vote Republican. 51.79% were women and 48.21% men. Results were gathered from 86 of the 88 Counties in Ohio. Every age group from 21 year olds to 90 year olds were surveyed.
The poll was conducted by TRZ Communications Services, Inc., a private communications company, located in Akron, OH that is majority owned by Tom Zawistowski, who is also the Executive Director of the Portage County TEA Party, and President of the We the People Convention and Ohio Citizens PAC. Zawistowski is one of fourteen founding members of the Tea Party for Trump Project.
Don’t know this poll, but never bought that an average of some polls makes sense. If one poll shows Trump +5 and another Clinton +5, does that really mean a tie is more accurate? . I think not.
That should put rest to fears that Evan McMuffin will split the vote enough to get Crooked Hillary close there.
I know I'm going to sound all tin-foil hat here but Real Clear Politics is with the Dems. I started noticing it back in 2012, that their methodology keeps an insurgent candidate from gaining momentum.
I honestly think that's why we get the crazy Hillary up by 11 pts crap, for the RCP average. If that's factored in and Trump just had a poll where he's up 6, suddenly doesn't look so good, doesn't encourage all those passionate supporters. .
Everyone should be using daily polls and only referring back to RCP average not using it for the gold standard.
Maybe We the peole should do the polling in other states.
I have always heard that averaging polls is not right.
Some polls use Likely Voters, some use Registered Voters, big sample sizes, small sample sizes, in person, online telephone...
It’s like averaging all the pictures of the vegetables in the vegetable aisle at the market and then coming out with one picture saying this is what a vegetable looks like.
I think this poll is of all adults or (more likely) all voters. The other pollsters like to skew their results by oversampling Democrats based on higher Dem turnout in 2012. They then call that a “poll of likely voters”. But that doesn’t mean they polled actual likely voters.
Wait for the Soros poll troll to chime in. He only gets paid to post in FR poll threads so he should be here soon.
Are there any who voted for Obama and will not vote for Hillary
Are there any who voted for Romney who aren’t going to vote for Trump
I doubt it
Depends on how many new voters Trump can get who didn’t vote in 2012
I know quite a few who voted for Obama and will not vote for Hillary.
I don’t think that is necessarily correct.
I think this election doesn’t fit that model. Yes new voters are part of the mix. But there will be voters who will crossover because they just can’t vote for Clinton. There will be voters who stayed home last time that will vote now.
Just my two cents.....
I did not vote for Romney - and I will vote for Trump. There are many of us in OH
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Realclearpolitics has no desire to use legitimate polls.
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“Have no idea the legitimacy of this poll.”
Not much legitimacy at all as there are no cross-tabs and and no sound sampling model listed.
It is also laughable that they could conduct 1539 interviews in three hours.
Averaging works if you assume that polls are about equally wrong in both directions. Whether you believe that or not is up to you.
If this is accurate, it says, to me, that Trump is leading in all but a few states; California, NEastern states, Illinois, etc. I am encouraged, but fearful that the election will be stolen from us.
I don’t remember the number here in Florida, but thousands more Republicans voted in the Primary, than ever before. Fewer Dems voted and new Rep. registrations were way up. That is encouraging to me.
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