Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Kansas 4th Congressional District Special Election
Decision Desk HQ ^ | April 11, 2017

Posted on 04/11/2017 5:12:46 PM PDT by SMGFan

Poll results are available there.

Ron Estes (Republican)

James Thompson (Democratic)


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Kansas
KEYWORDS: 115th; estes; first100days; jamesthompson; kansas; ks; ks2017; ronestes; specialelection; winning
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 161-180181-200201-220221-235 last
To: Vince Ferrer
Estes received 100,000 fewer votes than Pompeo in 2018 while Thompson received 25,000 fewer than Giroux in 2018. Estes still won by 9%.

Not an overwhelming victory, but still a win. Estes failed to get his voters out in the same percentages that Thompson did. It was a special election, which usually pushes voter participation down, but still, Estes needs to do a better job of getting the GOP voters to turn out.

From the NYT:

But after internal Republican polling last week revealed Mr. Estes’s lead was in only the single digits, the national party scrambled to rescue his campaign — and effectively conceded that even seats in the reddest corners of the United States are not safe at a time when Democrats are so energized against Mr. Trump.

While Mr. Thompson fell short, his unexpected strength represents a warning shot toward Republicans. And it will galvanize Democrats’ candidate-recruitment efforts for next year’s campaign.

The surging energy on the left was on display on Tuesday night when the early and absentee vote returns were tallied in the district’s largest county and revealed Mr. Thompson to have staked out a considerable lead. But Mr. Estes overcame that deficit thanks to his strength in the more rural parts of the district and among Election Day voters.

221 posted on 04/11/2017 8:31:14 PM PDT by kabar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 218 | View Replies]

To: nd76
The turnout tonight was about one-half of what it was in November, 2016.

Even less: 240,000 to 100,000

222 posted on 04/11/2017 8:33:59 PM PDT by kabar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 219 | View Replies]

To: kabar
The surging energy on the left was on display on Tuesday night when the early and absentee vote returns were tallied in the district’s largest county and revealed Mr. Thompson to have staked out a considerable lead. But Mr. Estes overcame that deficit thanks to his strength in the more rural parts of the district and among Election Day voters.

That sounds vaguely familiar. I can't quite place it...

In any event, Estes ends up winning by 9%? That seems pretty respectable, all in all...

223 posted on 04/11/2017 8:37:23 PM PDT by sargon ("If we were in the midst of a zombie apocalypse, the Left would protest for zombies' rights.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 221 | View Replies]

To: nd76

Chautauqua just quit clowning around and posted their final numbers, which are a 592/127/14 win for Estes.

Estes wins, 63,505 to 55,310, or by 8,195 votes. In percentage terms, 52.53% to 45.75%, a 6.78% win (source: Kansas SOS website).


224 posted on 04/11/2017 8:38:15 PM PDT by nd76
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 219 | View Replies]

To: sargon

Final totals indicate a 7% win. Pompeo won by 31% in 2016. The vote total was 40% of what it was in 2016. Estes received 100,000 less votes than Pompeo.


225 posted on 04/11/2017 8:40:34 PM PDT by kabar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 223 | View Replies]

To: kabar
Pompeo was an incumbent then, though, no?

I'd like to see the figures on how much money was spent by the respective campaigns.

Also, since turnout was so low on the R side, that needs to be looked at.

Interesting how apparently the early vote went heavy for the D, but notwithstanding that, the same-day vote pushed Estes to a 7% victory.

Let's hope the GOP does a better job in Georgia...

226 posted on 04/11/2017 8:43:05 PM PDT by sargon ("If we were in the midst of a zombie apocalypse, the Left would protest for zombies' rights.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 225 | View Replies]

To: CarolAnn

Sounds like it was closer then it should have been.


227 posted on 04/11/2017 10:58:45 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 151 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan
A 7 point win....in an election where the DEMON RATS were yugely motivated...

120,000 votes were cast last night, versus 275,000 votes in November. There is reasonable to believe that a higher turnout would have meant a BIGGER win for the Republican.

228 posted on 04/12/2017 1:05:54 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: fortheDeclaration

No, not that extreme, but if he had got elected....http://www.votejamesthompson.com/issues


229 posted on 04/12/2017 2:40:54 AM PDT by SMGFan (Sarah Michelle Gellar is on twitter @SarahMGellar)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 148 | View Replies]

To: RoseofTexas

Many of the immigrants in the small TX towns have not yet organized politically. Even in Democrat South TX, turnout is always low.


230 posted on 04/12/2017 2:46:34 AM PDT by Theodore R. (Let's not squander the golden opportunity of 2017.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 196 | View Replies]

To: MplsSteve

I had read that the Estes campaign was lackluster; so I was surprised with his victory, which apparently came from rural America to some extent.


231 posted on 04/12/2017 2:47:26 AM PDT by Theodore R. (Let's not squander the golden opportunity of 2017.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 199 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan
and that includes the right to bear arms as defined in the Second Amendment. Yea, right!
232 posted on 04/12/2017 7:47:43 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 229 | View Replies]

To: SoFloFreeper; themidnightskulker

“The new, Common Core math I guess.”


If the D was at 50.7% and the R at 47.6% and the L at 1.7%, then that adds up to 100.0%, but if you had rounded up each total to the nearest percentage you get 51% + 48% + 2%, which would give you 101%. So it was an issue of rounding in the Secretary of State’s presentation, not of funky “math.”

But I liked the final numbers a lot better (53% R, 46% D).


233 posted on 04/12/2017 11:45:51 AM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll defend your rights?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 62 | View Replies]

To: drop 50 and fire for effect

“Republican Charles Djou won the [Hawaii] 1st District 2010 special election only to lose in November.”


Of course, Djou only won because there were two prominent RATs running and no run-off, so his 39% was enough to win; in November, he only faced one Democrat, so his 44% or so wasn’t nearly high enough to survive. But, yes, special elections usually have very low turnout, which can yield weird results.


234 posted on 04/12/2017 11:49:34 AM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll defend your rights?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 95 | View Replies]

To: AuH2ORepublican

Me too. The Demon Rats are loco if they think this election was good news for them.


235 posted on 04/12/2017 12:50:16 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 233 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 161-180181-200201-220221-235 last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson