Potentially Catastrophic Hurricane Harvey Approaches Texas Gulf Coast

NOAA/NHC ^ | 8/24/20017 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Potentially catastrophic Hurricane Harvey approaching Texas Gulf Coast.

Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links

Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NHC Local Hurricane Statements Corpus Christi
NHC Local Hurricane Statements Galveston
Buoy Data near Harvey

[Sequoyah101]

and THAT is HIGH ground for the area!

[palmer]

What would you call 53 inches of rain from a single storm?

It's model output.

[henkster]

OK, so the model is wrong. They only get 49 inches of rain. I’m sure the residents will be relieved.

[NautiNurse]

More than simply a convergence of rain bands, the 53 inches of rain is anticipated due to four days of hurricane and tropical storm hovering just barely inland over the same area.

[caww]

Mayor tells those NOT evacuating for hurricane to put Social Security numbers on their arms....

[palmer]

There are two major models. The GFS is showing more stalling, but it's less accurate in general and usually less accurate for hurricane tracks. So cherry picking the GFS which shows the storm stalled for a longer period (never leaving Texas), is probably not warranted. Better to look at the Euro.

Still tons of rain in the Euro as you make the point. But not 53, not 49, etc etc. Need to be realistic about the seriousness without going off the deep end.

[palmer]

The hovering is predicted by GFS which is pretty crappy on hurricane tracks (see Sandy for example). Admittedly the Euro keeps the storm around for 2-3 days also. But I would not be cherry picking the GFS at this point.

[Black Agnes]

Actually it’s the EURO showing the massive rainfall:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/901156356652236800

[caww]

Watch for all the global warming salesmen to come out in he wake of this Hurricane...along with the push for donations to bogus ‘help’ spams.

[henkster]

Having been to that area several times, anything over 20 inches is going to be awful. Add it to a category 3 storm surge, and 100 mph winds, and there are coastal communities that will be obliterated, and may not be rebuilt.

[Rushmore Rocks]

Thanks for that link. I was born in Victoria and still relatives there.

And an extra thank you for all your hard work on these threads.

[janetjanet998]

that was last night run..new model shows stall for 5 days

[mewzilla]

Mayor tells those NOT evacuating for hurricane to put Social Security numbers on their arms....

I'd add use a Sharpie, and print large. Small print might be made illegible by...well, just make the numbers big.

[palmer]

Yes, thanks, I see the latest Euro shows a loop before the storm exits to the north. But the damage is done by then. I certainly think 40 is a possibility somewhere, but like the local forecasters, I would be saying 12-24 with unpredictable locations as much as 36.

Please ping me when it is over and we can revisit.

[NautiNurse]

Thanks for your kind words. The domino effects from this storm will be felt far beyond the Lone Star State.

[palmer]

No question the wide area amounts of 20 which seems quite likely, are going to fill rivers to record levels. That’s probably going to be the main problem. Hopefully the surge and highest winds will hit a less populated part of the coast. Remember that the incoming eyewall is only about 25-50 miles on the right side of the storm where the worst conditions are

[Black Agnes]

Over about 12 or 15 it just sort of makes the rubble bounce. Flooded out from 15” isn’t materially different than flooded out from 30”. It’s all flat as a pancake, no high ground really.

[VA40]

Actually they should be handed a permanent marker and told to write it on their head and torso also. Works in the Outer Banks of NC.

[mewzilla]

Good point! No guarantees that bodies will be found intact!

[palmer]

I see the loop in the 12z euro. That’s obviously not good. Hopefully it will be wrong. Unfortunately it’s probably accurate for the next few days which is the looping.