~~~~~~~Democrats on Wednesday morning
Posted on 11/04/2018 7:41:57 AM PST by mandaladon
The reason it’s counterintuitive is because you can’t really identify 23 districts that are safe bets to flip to Democrats, which is the number they need to take the House. In the Deluxe version of our model (the one I’ll be focusing on here) only 193 seats are considered by our model to be “solid Democratic” (at least a 95 percent chance of a Democratic victory). If Democrats won only those seats and no others, they’d actually lose two seats from the 195 they control now. Another 15 seats are “likely Democratic,” where Democrats have at least a 75 chance of winning. Win those as well, and Democrats are … still up to a net gain of only 13 seats.1
The model then has 34 seats between its three most competitive categories: “lean Democratic” (8 seats), “toss-up” (16 seats) and “lean Republican” (10 seats). If Republicans win 24 of those 34 seats — assuming everything else went to form — they’ll keep the House.
How hard is that? Because of the possibility of a systematic polling error, it isn’t really that hard at all. If there’s a typical polling error of 2 to 3 percentage points and it works in Republicans’ favor, the House would be a toss-up. We might not even know the winner for several days as everyone waits for additional mail ballots to be returned from California. Thus, the Lite forecast gives Republicans a 2 in 9, or 22 percent, chance of keeping the House based on the possibility of a systematic polling error. Their chances are 18 percent in Deluxe and 15 percent in our Classic version, meanwhile.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
How hard is that? Because of the possibility of a systematic polling error, it isn’t really that hard at all. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~"Systematic polling error" new excuse from Silver...
Hot Air posted an article by Nate Silver?!
That place is completely trashed.
go nate, go nate, go nate! FUBAR!
Garbage in, ...
Nate Silver backtracking and trying to cover his a$$. Republicans are going to keep the House and add Senators.
If the polls are correct, it would be the first time ANY media reported the truth in the past 2 years! This enthusiasm we see... and the dead party dems, with nothing to offer but destroying our nation with their revenge and anger.. and this is supposed to be close? Dead heat?
Wasn’t born yesterday.. seen too many dirty tricks. Are you going to believe the “media” or your own eyes!
Except for mittens right? We can safely lose his seat, right?
You're just the guy to provide us with "A Systematic Polling Error To Win The House"!!!!
I guess the Swamp got to Nate after he said yesterday he was having doubts of a Blue Wave. They’re gripping on the other side. I know the House is gonna be tough to hold, but we can all feel the same excitement for this midterm election on our side as we had two years ago when we elected Trump! The Big MO is definitely on our side!
Given the results last time, I’d say that “systematic polling error” is more likely than not.
And this is after them tweaking things to bring polls a nudge closer to reality than they were before.
The Kavanaugh thing made a lot of people understand the gravity of the situation and the true nature of current year Democrats.
We have it then, the polls are rigged.
has Nate corrected for the same systemic polling error that affected his 2016 prediction?
No.
He is simply stating that 2018 could be the same as 2016.
Will be the second time in 2 years.....
Silver is trying inoculate himself from criticism when the GOP wins on Tuesday.
but the Dems are loading trunks with absentee ballots, etc - just in case. i’m planning on a lot of “found” ballots in tight districts, if needed. from experience.
I’ll start believing Nate Silver when he starts delivering on his predictions. He became famous when he got lucky, or perhaps he did it when poll data was reliable, not sure which. Since then, his record has been spotty to say the least. We’ll see how he does this time out.
RATs can kiss our collective rear ends.
~~~~~~~Democrats on Wednesday morning
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