For Prigozhin to go this far implies he is confident of internal support inside the Kremlin...or he’s full of hubris and is recklessly deluded. Either way its a huge gamble for him.
I go with the first choice, that Prigozhin has planned this out beforehand and has support among an important part of the elites and security forces.
Whether he will actually succeed is another matter. If key political figures start calling for national unity and for negotiation with Prigozhin with an outcome in which Shoigu and Gerasimov are sacked that could be a sign of Prigozhin’s support.
A) The mercenary Prigozhin has been paid handsomely by Western governments. Hey, that’s the mercenary biz.
B) If Prigozhin and his men were/are being targeted by regular troops, he may think that his only option is to stake everything on a coup.
C) Prigozhin has allies in high places in the Kremlin, and this is all part of a coordinated revolution.
Or a combo thereof.
I know little about Russian politics, but it's my understanding there are so many high level power-players that Russia can be compared to various tribal societies throughout the World. There is also a huge Russian mafia with much influence. Follow the money with both the Politicians and the Mafia.
The scary thing about this new development is who will wind up with nuke control? President Trump would have stopped Putin's most excellent adventure in Ukraine before it started. Biteme is saying "God save the Queen, man" and other such daily nonsense.
My concern is Putin may use a couple of tactical nukes if Prigozhin gets within coup ability, and how will that impact the US and NATO?