Posted on 03/16/2002 6:15:13 PM PST by dalereed
THE INSIDER: Political Information Network
THE AUTHORITATIVE GUIDE FOR SACRAMENTO INSIDERS AND POLITICAL LEADERS
M E M O R A N D U M
TO: Sacramento Political Insiders & Interested Parties
FROM: Russo Marsh + Rogers, Inc.
RE: Simon Solidly Ahead of Davis in New California Poll
DATE: March 16, 2002
SIMON LEADS DAVIS BY SEVEN!
48% - 41%
SACRAMENTO - A recent statewide poll conducted by the nationally recognized political polling firm, Public Opinion Strategies Inc. (POS), reveals that businessman and charity leader Bill Simon leads Gray Davis 48% to 41%.
The poll results reveal that Gray Davis is extremely vulnerable in his re-election campaign, and California voters are looking to a new leader like Bill Simon to rescue the state from the litany of crises that have exploded on Davis' watch.
Simon Leads Davis Among Both Women and Men
Despite false claims by the Davis campaign that Simon would have a difficult time attracting support from female voters, Simon actually leads Davis among women by a 46%-43% margin. Among men Davis is especially weak. Simon receives support from a majority of men (51%) while only 39% of men support the troubled incumbent Governor.
Democrats Remain Lukewarm Towards Davis - Republicans Solidly Behind Simon
Davis' failures as Governor have been so pronounced that he has a difficult time retaining the support of even registered Democrats. While 81% of Republicans support Simon, Davis receives the support of merely 63% of Democrats.
This point is even more strongly underscored by the intensity of support the two candidates receive. 71% of Republicans strongly support Simon while only 48% of Democrats strongly support Davis.
Simon Lead Over Davis Extends Throughout the State - Including Los Angeles
Just as Bill Simon's lead over Davis extends across numerous demographics, Simon's support similarly is not limited to a specific region in the state. Simon leads in every media market of the state except San Francisco. Among the major media markets Simon's lead is dramatic.
SIMON- DAVIS Ballot by Major Media Market
SAN DIEGO SIMON 57% DAVIS 33%
SACRAMENTO SIMON 52% DAVIS 34%
LOS ANGELES SIMON 49% DAVIS 40%
?
SAN FRANCISCO SIMON 38% DAVIS 54%
Davis Viewed Unfavorably By 50% of California Voters
After mishandling the state's education policies, energy crisis and budget and fiscal problems, California voters have formed a seriously negative view of Gray Davis. One out of every two voters (50%) views Gray Davis in an unfavorable light.
Meanwhile, almost half of all voters (45%) have a favorable view of Bill Simon, only 42% of voters have a favorable view of Davis.
Davis Failures and Unfavorable Image Lead Voters to Look for Someone New
Davis image problems and poor job performance have resulted in only 36% of voters expressing a desire to re-elect him. A startling 55% of voters said "a new person should be elected Governor of California." Historically when such a number is higher than 50%, it has foreshadowed a resounding defeat for the incumbent on Election Day.
Primary Campaign Perfectly Positioned Simon for General Election Victory
Simon campaign chief strategist, Sal Russo, said, "the primary election campaign which focused on Bill Simon as the candidate of ideas has resonated well with California voters. While Gray Davis is focused on blaming everybody else for his failed leaderships, voters are responding to Bill Simon's message of ideas for solving California's problems."
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____________________________________ Russo Marsh + Rogers, Inc
770 L Street, Suite 950
Sacramento, CA 95814
(916) 441-3734
As for polls - Yes it is very early, but this is great anyway. First, Simon is a newcomer. Normally, he would have to build name ID to get in the running. Second, Davis is vulnerable; the whole "electability" question has been solved. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR MONEY REASONS. It means Simon can use these poll numbers to agressively raise the cash he needs to compete by showing he is indeed 'electable'. Davis will have a big budget and Simon needs to compete.
Third, and obvious: When incumbent is TRAILING this early, it signals people want a change. Davis will try to run against Bill Simon, but that is not enough. If Bill Simon shows positive leadership qualities and doesnt get 'defined' by Davis, he will win.
In fact, if I were Simon, I'd be crisscrossoing the state making speeches about my plans and hopes for Cali and *not* attacking Davis directly. This is how GW Bush won his Gov race against incumbent Ann Richards in 1994. She was vulnerable, but he ran a *positive* campaign focussed on a few issues. He won by 8%.
Early and energetic activism will make all the difference here - it will stop Davis from winning by 'defining' Simon via 30 second attacks ads. Great idea to get those bumper stickers out there. maybe some flyers too, to share with repub friends. the sooner the better, to get the word out.
Just amazing! **Jumping-for-joy Ping**
That is not what the poll numbers above show--to the contrary, they show that if we get a straight proportunate turn out, Simon wins; even if the Dems get a disproportunate turn out, we still win if they don't beat us in the turn out race by six percent.
Although this poll is an early run, it looks awfully good for Simon. It tells us the people have decided to throw the incumbent out and that they have some positive view of our candidate who also is ahead by more than the margin of error. In that seat, it is difficult for an independent attack ad to do enough damage to beat you.
This is a very interesting one coming from Ward Connerley (I think that's spelling is more or less right) saying that California should not collect racial statistics or make purchasing decisions based on race. This is a loaded grenade and is likely to make turnout on both sides high.
The LA Weekly's current issue has one of their trademark political essays, lengthly to the point of tedium, claiming that since the electorate is leftist, especially in LA and SF, Davis was right in his strategy to bury Riordan and help Simon, who of course will be crushed in the general. The much more conservative Jill Stewart of the New Times thinks so as well.
I think disgust with the present administration is going to carry the day. Davis will have a tough time at best spinning his record. Even the LA Weekly admits that they will hold their nose when voting for Davis.
My best guess is that the LA Weekly crowd isn't going to turn out in any great numbers for Davis, a man they despise. Since Republicans are more likely voters in any event, I think that tilts the advantage towards Simon.
I don't think we should be complacent; all of us should get behind Simon. But we should be of good cheer while doing it. I think this story is good as a tonic of optimism in an often pessimistic world; if we are too optimistic, we will not bother voting; if we are too pessimistic, we won't bother voting because we don't think our guy has a chance. So we should continue to this election optimistic, but recognizing that every vote counts.
D
Last Week
Humboldt Creamery Tour - Eureka
Homeowner/Taxpayer Event - Chico
Legislative Republican Luncheon - Sacramento
School Tour - Santa Barbara
School Tour - Monterey
Small Business Tour - Oakland
Hispanic Business Meeting - San Diego
This Week
Iranian Republican Council Reception - Santa Monica
Meeting with RNC Chairman Marc Racicot - Sacramento
Mount Sac Community College Visit - Walnut
http://www.pos.org/html/simonpressrelease.htm
It's analysis of how the race progressed is interesting reading.
I would have posted it here, but I couldn't get it to format right.
He's traveling all over the state. He's in constant motion. Getting his message out, building friendships, taking the state's pulse. Go here to find out more, to contribute to his campaign, to volunteer, to get on his e-mail list.
You said it. We'll see where Simon stands after the patented Gray Davis "Bigot-racist-sexist-fascist-hate-filled-homophobe" campaign begins.
Simon was here in Humboldt County last week. Photo opp at the local creamery to dedicate their new $750,000 generator . Will keep the Jerseys and Holstiens contented when Gov Doofus turns the lites out. Simon then flew to Chico the Velvetta Capitol of the world.
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