Posted on 03/16/2002 6:15:13 PM PST by dalereed
THE INSIDER: Political Information Network
THE AUTHORITATIVE GUIDE FOR SACRAMENTO INSIDERS AND POLITICAL LEADERS
M E M O R A N D U M
TO: Sacramento Political Insiders & Interested Parties
FROM: Russo Marsh + Rogers, Inc.
RE: Simon Solidly Ahead of Davis in New California Poll
DATE: March 16, 2002
SIMON LEADS DAVIS BY SEVEN!
48% - 41%
SACRAMENTO - A recent statewide poll conducted by the nationally recognized political polling firm, Public Opinion Strategies Inc. (POS), reveals that businessman and charity leader Bill Simon leads Gray Davis 48% to 41%.
The poll results reveal that Gray Davis is extremely vulnerable in his re-election campaign, and California voters are looking to a new leader like Bill Simon to rescue the state from the litany of crises that have exploded on Davis' watch.
Simon Leads Davis Among Both Women and Men
Despite false claims by the Davis campaign that Simon would have a difficult time attracting support from female voters, Simon actually leads Davis among women by a 46%-43% margin. Among men Davis is especially weak. Simon receives support from a majority of men (51%) while only 39% of men support the troubled incumbent Governor.
Democrats Remain Lukewarm Towards Davis - Republicans Solidly Behind Simon
Davis' failures as Governor have been so pronounced that he has a difficult time retaining the support of even registered Democrats. While 81% of Republicans support Simon, Davis receives the support of merely 63% of Democrats.
This point is even more strongly underscored by the intensity of support the two candidates receive. 71% of Republicans strongly support Simon while only 48% of Democrats strongly support Davis.
Simon Lead Over Davis Extends Throughout the State - Including Los Angeles
Just as Bill Simon's lead over Davis extends across numerous demographics, Simon's support similarly is not limited to a specific region in the state. Simon leads in every media market of the state except San Francisco. Among the major media markets Simon's lead is dramatic.
SIMON- DAVIS Ballot by Major Media Market
SAN DIEGO SIMON 57% DAVIS 33%
SACRAMENTO SIMON 52% DAVIS 34%
LOS ANGELES SIMON 49% DAVIS 40%
?
SAN FRANCISCO SIMON 38% DAVIS 54%
Davis Viewed Unfavorably By 50% of California Voters
After mishandling the state's education policies, energy crisis and budget and fiscal problems, California voters have formed a seriously negative view of Gray Davis. One out of every two voters (50%) views Gray Davis in an unfavorable light.
Meanwhile, almost half of all voters (45%) have a favorable view of Bill Simon, only 42% of voters have a favorable view of Davis.
Davis Failures and Unfavorable Image Lead Voters to Look for Someone New
Davis image problems and poor job performance have resulted in only 36% of voters expressing a desire to re-elect him. A startling 55% of voters said "a new person should be elected Governor of California." Historically when such a number is higher than 50%, it has foreshadowed a resounding defeat for the incumbent on Election Day.
Primary Campaign Perfectly Positioned Simon for General Election Victory
Simon campaign chief strategist, Sal Russo, said, "the primary election campaign which focused on Bill Simon as the candidate of ideas has resonated well with California voters. While Gray Davis is focused on blaming everybody else for his failed leaderships, voters are responding to Bill Simon's message of ideas for solving California's problems."
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____________________________________ Russo Marsh + Rogers, Inc
770 L Street, Suite 950
Sacramento, CA 95814
(916) 441-3734
Let them. California rejected 'queerville' by a 2/3 majority in 2000 (definition of marriage amendment).
I think thay USED to be true. However as many as 4 million rightwingers stayed home in the last presidential election and it hurt us BADLY(That was brought up at the last local GOP meeting I was at too).
I don't think we should be complacent; all of us should get behind Simon. But we should be of good cheer while doing it. I think this story is good as a tonic of optimism in an often pessimistic world; if we are too optimistic, we will not bother voting; if we are too pessimistic, we won't bother voting because we don't think our guy has a chance. So we should continue to this election optimistic, but recognizing that every vote counts
I tend to sound more pessimistic than I am. It comes from my football background. I'm a coach and former player. Everyone wanted to beat our team. It's a "Us against the world" mentality. "Everyone"(The elite) wants to beat the NRA. We don't have the media and all the talent to win. That means we need hard work to win. Giving up is not part of who I am, so that means there is one option. Outwork the enemy and win, and beat them so bad that they will never come back, and put in your 2nd stringers to gain them experience.
Engler did that to Fieger in 98. Coattails took out most of the dems in the swing districts. We control redistricting, so we win, got a good farm club, and are in fairly good shape down the ticket.
Everyone is out to beat Simon. Simon is the underdog. I don't care if he's up by 25 points. He's the underdog. Now there are two options. Chicken out, or outwork the enemy.
There's the choice.
I have believed for quite some time that VP Cheney will not be on the ticket next time around. Perhaps we will see the likes of Simon?
It's always a hot summer in most of California, since most of this state is desert, believe it or not. But the month to watch is September.
That's a double loser. Davis is a loser as a person and after November when he loses the governership he will be a double loser in spades.
LOL
I tend to be skeptical of polls that are commissioned by a candidate and subsequently show that candidate ahead. No matter how good a reputation the polling firm has, it's hard not to at least wonder about the firm's objectivity. Still, POS does indeed appear to have one of the better reputations in the business, and these results are not implausible.
If these results are correct, their importance is not so much that Simon is ahead of Davis at this early date, but that Davis has not yet succeeded in defining Simon. Simon's biggest danger has always been that Davis would unleash an overwhelming negative attack immediately after the primary, and thereby demonize Simon before Simon had a chance to introduce himself to the great majority of voters. If Simon can establish a positive image and build up favorable name recognition before Davis is able to rip him to shreds, then Simon has a good chance of winning.
Republican challengers don't usually win when they either focus on attacking the Democrat or try to back in by saying as little as possible when they have an early lead. They have to show they have ideas. But they do need to take some selected shots at the Democrat.
That's how Reagan ran. He rarely mentioned the other candidate by name and mostly talked about his own plans. But every so often he would let the Dem have it, often in a way that ridiculed him but didn't seem harsh. He was an absolute master of that. Alas we won't be seeing another Reagan soon.
Florida, Florida, Florida.
We HAVE to get out our vote!
We need to get information out to our Republicans and the non-partisans BEFORE the attack ads start. Does anyone know where we can get pamphlets, brouchers, information on Simon for passing out in our precincts?
As far as Simon pushing for a repeal of current laws, I don't see that happening until at least after the budget battles and homeland security issues are dealt with, and maybe not until his second term.
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