Posted on 04/07/2002 5:49:08 AM PDT by GailA
Susan Adler Thorp: Unhappy days here again for state GOP
Tennessee Democrats are a lucky bunch. After nearly eight years of wandering around the state's political landscape without elected leaders to guide them, the governor's office and a U.S. Senate seat may fall from the sky and land in their laps.
Not since 1994 have Democrats had such a good chance to regain the political posts they lost when a Republican blitz decimated the Democratic Party in Tennessee.
After losing the governor's office and two Senate seats, leaving the Demos with no official elected statewide to head the party, control of the Democratic Party shifted to the organization itself. But none of its chairmen since then could persuade credible Democrats to be candidates in statewide elections. It's been a sad state of affairs for Democrats, who controlled much of the state's political process for nearly half of the past century - until recently.
The party's good fortune this year isn't rooted in great political strategy, nor is it because some larger-than-life Democratic candidates have emerged in the races for governor and senator.
It's mostly because Tennessee Republicans are about to go down in what is shaping up to be two heated and bitter statewide primaries - one for governor, the other for the Senate seat Fred Thompson is vacating.
U.S. Rep. Ed Bryant, who hails from the GOP's conservative right, refused to buckle to pressure from GOP leaders to bow out of the GOP Senate primary race against Lamar Alexander, a moderate.
And although he has been running for governor for more than two years, U.S. Rep. Van Hilleary's campaign seems to have hit a brick wall in its fund-raising efforts.
Hilleary owes that problem in part to Alexander's fund-raising stampede. The former Tennessee governor and two-time presidential candidate has been able to divert the attention of some of the GOP's top fund-raisers from Hilleary's campaign to his. Hilleary, also from the party's far right, hasn't been able to turn former lawmaker and state GOP chairman Jim Henry of Kingston into an irrelevant opponent in the GOP gubernatorial primary race.
Henry appears to be picking up GOP support from the party's moderate civic and business leaders, many of whom believe he is better able than Hilleary to solve the state's financial problems.
These GOP races are ripe to turn into heated and possibly bitter contests, which could leave the GOP nominees battered and broke in the general election.
The fraternal fighting is evidence that not all is harmonious in the Tennessee Republican Party, which is split between old-line political moderates and new social conservatives.
The conservative wing of the party is based mostly in the growing suburbs of Nashville and Memphis, although it draws some of its support from East Tennessee.
y and large, East Tennessee Republicans are Republicans, not by ideology but by heritage. Many still vote Republican because their great-grandaddies fought for the Union in the Civil War. For more than a century, the group's leadership produced political moderates such as Howard Baker, Bill Brock, Fred Thompson and Alexander.
But there's a sense among Bryant and his supporters that there is growing discontent in the party's moderate wing. It's not a movement from their conservative way of thinking, but rather a movement away from Alexander. After two failed presidential bids, they call it Alexander fatigue.
That means Alexander, who is still well known among Republican voters, has a difficult task ahead of him. He must somehow reconnect with Republican primary voters across the state - a group he hasn't wooed in 15 years.
He'll have to abandon all gimmicks, such as his plaid shirt, and earn their respect all over again. It will be hard to do, with Bryant criticizing him at every turn.
Pols believe these races for Bryant and Henry are long shots. Both candidates will have a hard time raising money and will have to find ways to call attention to their campaigns. To do that, both candidates must mount serious offensives against their opponents, and that includes negative attacks.
That's good news for the Democrats, who have lined up behind U.S. Rep. Bob Clement of Nashville, as the party's consensus Senate candidate. Since Clement has no credible opposition in the primary, he'll likely enter the general election unfettered by a primary and with a lot of money.
Former Nashville mayor Phil Bredesen has primary opposition for governor, but neither of his opponents - Randy Nichols, Knoxville's district attorney, or Charles Smith, former state Board of Regents chancellor - has been able to mount a threatening campaign.
Bredesen and Clement also are likely to benefit in the general election from the November referendum on the proposed state lottery. Many polls - including one conducted by The Commercial Appeal last year - have shown that a majority of Tennesseans favor a lottery. Those are likely Democratic voters.
Bredesen and Clement are in good positions against the GOP nominees. The question is: Can they capitalize on their good fortune?
Susan Adler Thorp is political columnist for The Commercial Appeal. You can reach her at 529-5843, write to her at 495 Union, Memphis, Tenn. 38103, or contact her by E-mail at thorp@gomemphis.com.
Henry is picking up the support of the more liberal rino types, especially those who want more of the burden of taxation to fall on the worker. Shelby Co Mayor jim rout supports him, nuf said.
If you like having you pocket picked then vote for the moderate/liberals. IF you are TIRED of having you pocket picked then be sure to VOTE AGAINST the moderat/liberal canidates. UNTIL we change the political landscape in the General Assembly we have to continually battle the income tax.
By Tom Humphrey, News-Sentinel Nashville bureau
April 7, 2002
Legislatorland is losing some of the most colorful and capable characters remaining in a landscape that had already grown rather bleak.
For capable, House Finance Committee Chairman Matt Kisber and Rep. Gene Caldwell, who chaired the TennCare Oversight Committee, provide fine examples.
Kisber knows every bit of budget backwater in the state, having waded through it repeatedly - and changed the channels - during the past 20 years. Caldwell, a retired pediatrician who is the only physician serving in Legislatorland, brought both a warm heart and keen insight to the tangled TennCare web.
Both cited family considerations as the primary reason for making an exit, but both acknowledge considerable frustration with the budget bickering that has made stalemate the status quo.
For colorful, House Commerce Committee Chairman Shelby Rhinehart and House Calendar Committee Chairman Pete Phillips would be hard to top. Both were gifted in baloney spreading - to the point of making it an entertaining art form.
Rhinehart, the most senior citizen of Legislatorland and something of a legend, has spent 36 years in office. He once killed a bill by declaring, in a thundering speech, that it would violate the 33rd amendment to the U.S. Constitution. Only after the bill was dead did his thunderstruck colleagues realize that there is no 33rd amendment to the U.S. Constitution.
But he operated best in backroom deal-cutting and parliamentary maneuvering. In all things, he had the extraordinary knack of leaving opponents laughing after losing - adapting the demeanor of a wily but lovable rogue.
Phillips, a country-talking lawyer, has been around almost as long as Rhinehart and could best anyone in the realm of bombastic, animated oratory - usually in defense of "the little man" - who stood to suffer from some proposed legislative act.
The colorful had expressed some frustration, too, of late. Rhinehart said in announcing his decision to quit last week that he had "loved every minute of it."
But recall that Shelby of the silver hair once was proposed as the Legislature's designated representative to a "liar's contest" - only to have the idea squashed when the sponsor explained that the contest was "for amateurs only." And that he declared not so long ago that the current legislative session "is the most dastardly I've ever seen."
In other words, it may be suspected that Rhinehart was just being a gentlemen in his parting remarks, now that he's decided to leave that underground bunker known as Legislative Plaza.
In all, 12 state representatives and two senators are fleeing the legislative scene. Four are seeking other elective office; the rest are just returning to life outside of Legislatorland.
In 2000, the last election year, only four representatives and two senators chose not to seek re-election. Three ran for higher offices. (It's debatable these days whether there are lower offices.)
Another House member, Rep. Mike Williams, D-Franklin, quit to become a lobbyist in 2001 after winning re-election.
Some of the quitting crowd this year may well come by a way to return to the political arena without the necessity of suffering as legislator.
All of the dearly departing, after all, like politics and public service. If not, they would never have sought the office. It's just that, after being in Legislatorland for a while, they've learned there is surely a better place to be.
(There's been much speculation, for example, that if Democrat Phil Bredesen wins the gubernatorial election, he could pick Kisber as finance commissioner, the departing House Agriculture Chairman Ken Givens, D-Rogersville, as agriculture commissioner or the exiting Rep. Ronnie Cole, D-Dyersburg, as transportation commissioner.)
Despite the surge in numbers of those fleeing Legislatorland, last week's candidate qualifying proved that there are far more folks eager to get in. Not only are they swarming to run for the open seats, but there are challengers to most of the stubborn incumbents who remain.
I suppose we should be thankful they don't know any better. And hope that at least a few are capable or colorful.
Tom Humphrey, chief of the News-Sentinel's Nashville bureau, may be reached at 615-242-7782 or humphrey@edge.net
I listened to ED Bryant kick off his campaign in Memphis. He kept to Reagan's plan of not bad-mouthing a fellow republican. He did say there were differences in the two canidates, that Lamar is a moderate who had not held elective office in 20 years and he Ed Bryant is the true conservative with the only voting record to prove it. The local NRA chair for Shelby CO will be backing Ed Bryant as the better pro-second Amendment supporter, same as he is backing Van Hilleary as the better canidate.
GO ED GO! GO VAN GO!
But with the bad taste of taxquist in all mouths and Van with not much money and Henry thrown in, expect a dem gov! If Alexander wins the primary expect folks like me to leave that one blank in the voting booth in November and we will have a dem in the senate!
Oh and I forgot to add Ted Welch playing behind the scenes for Alexander asking people not to contribute to other canidates, but throw all their cash behind plaid shirt Alexander!
So if republicans want my senate vote and the votes of many others across this state that I know, they better be getting Bryant on that November ballot!
By Frank Cagle (who is Van Hilleary's campaign manager I believe). Cagle was the only conservative writer for the Tennessean.
Tennessee often center of national politics If you are a political junkie there's no place like Tennessee.
Can you name another state the size of Tennessee that has figured so prominately in national politics over recent decades?
Howard Baker, Lamar Alexander, Fred Thompson and Al Gore have played prominent roles on the national political scene. Bill Frist is coming into his own as a national player. Regardless of your views of each man it demonstrates the role Tennessee has played in national affairs.
It harks back to the days when Andrew Jackson and James Polk came from the Tennessee frontier to take the presidency and lead the nation. No Tennessean has yet to grasp that brass ring in recent years, but no other state has had as many political leaders in contention.
Tennessee was the focus of attention in the 2000 election, when native son Al Gore was the Democratic nominee and his loss of his home state cost him the presidency.
Tennessee has become the focus of national politics in 2002 because it is again crucial to national political power in the battle between Republicans and Democrats.
The Republicans hold a six vote margin in the U.S. House and there are three congressional seats in play in Tennessee this year.
The Democrats have a one-vote margin in the U.S. Senate because of the apostate, Jim Jeffords of Vermont.
The retirement of Sen. Fred Thompson puts the safe Tennessee senate seat in play.
In the 2004 election Gore will again be in contention for president. Control of Tennessee's governor's office and the statewide party machinery will be crucial for both Gore and Bush. If Phil Bredesen wins the governor's office and the Democrats capture the open senate seat, Democrat dominance in Tennessee will help Gore capture his home state which provided Bush with the margin of victory in 2000.
If the Republicans turn back the Democratic surge and Van Hilleary captures the governor's office and either Alexander of Ed Bryant win the senate seat the Democrats will be revealed to be a minority party in Tennessee, unable to come back from the Republican watershed year of 1994.
It will set the political landscape for another decade and put the Democrats in a hole from which they may not be able to recover for a generation. They may find themselves where Republican were in Tennessee for most of the 20th Century.
If the Republicans lose it could signal a return to pre-1994 status, when a popular Republican might win the occassional office, but Democrats totally controlled political power in the state -- with the corresponding patronage.
Tennessee is a conservative state and, all things being equal, the Republican message resonants with the majority of Tennessee voters. Democratic candidates this year are running to the right and trying to out-conservative the Republicans.
If you listen to Bredesen or Congressman Bob Clement, the Democratic senate candidate, you have to look hard to find the Democratic label. The best hope for Democrats to capture a U.S. House seat is state Sen. Lincoln Davis, running in the 4th District. Davis also votes conservative.
The job for Republicans is to drive home the point to conservative Tennessee voters that no matter how conservative these Democrats sound there is one thing to remember. Davis will cast his first vote for Richard Gephardt to be House Speaker. Clement will be a vote for Tom Daschle. And Bredesen will be able to put the state policial machinery to the service of presidential candidate Al Gore.
Given all the Republican primaries going on this year, perhaps that's a message the Tennessee Republican Party ought to be delivering. Forcefully. Repeatedly. And at length.
If you believe in limited government, low taxes and conservative values party labels make a difference, especially in national politics.
As Tennessee has been a major player in national politics, it will do so again in November.
That's one reason why President Bush will be in Knoxville on Monday.
Even if Bredesen could put the state political machinery behind Al Gore in 2004, it doesn't follow that Al Gore would be able to carry his quasi-home state.
This primary can be done with out ripping the GOP apart. Did it rip the CA GOP apart when Simon beat that rino into the gound? NO it did not. Now the CA GOP is rallying around Simon to whip grey out's caboose. It will happen the same way here in Tennessee. We will close ranks on the winner. BUT give us a FAIR primary, with the Washington crowd keeping their noses out of our affairs. NO one should CROWN any ony of them KING, they should EARN the right to be called Governor or Senator. And if they prove false to their promises to be KICKED OUT of OFFICE ASAP.
THORP is a FLAMING LIBERAL SPOUTING THE LIBERAL MANTRA AND HER DEEPEST DISIRE IS TO DIVIDE and CONQUER! WHEN YOU READ HER ASP TONGUED ARTICLES KEEP IT IN MIND SHE IS THE MOUTH PIECE OF THE DEMS JUST LIKE CARVILE AND HIS ILK ARE.
WE each must examine our beliefs and our hearts and must vote accordingly. It is what our Founding Fathers fought and died for.
When we go to the polls in the primary guess what I get the choice of voting for one of THREE demon-rats as my "new" State senator....one being john ford. I'll take the opportunity to try and vote his sorry caboose out of office. The GOP DID NOT even try to put up a canidate to run against him! Where is their loyality to their consituents in that? I feel very betrayed by this. Even if the man didn't stand a chance, I'd of like the opportunity to vote for a GOP canidate. H even the Liberterians failed to put up a canidate to try and oust ford.
I also give alot of time and effort to the TN GOP, but my vote, it is sacred, and it is mine, not the parties, it is something a canidate earns, they are not given it freely simply to pacify state GOP! One thing I have learned from years of political activism, one voice, one vote. My voice may influence others to vote, to think about issues, but I am the one who has to live with my vote, and while you call me self centered, I prefer to think of me as protective of my values, my believes, and my freedom.
I value above all else my right to my vote, just as I value the right of your vote, or anyone elses vote. I'll be out there everyday with my ball very much in play, right up until the polls close on August 1st. But, as I've said I cannot and will not vote for a man that pushes a liberal agenda, simply because he has an R behind his name on the ballot.
If more people would speakout and tell Alexander and others, I'm not voting for you, period, and I am urging others not to vote for you, this would be in my opinion a sure win for republicans in TN this year, but all I see is a sure fired chance of giving TN a dem senator with Alexander on the ballot!
Where's "Waldo" Bob Clement? http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/661763/posts?page=2 Click Here
Uh, not really. Bryant would be easy to beat by Bob Clement. Bryant would get the right-wing votes, and a handful of party loyalists. The GOP moderates, already sick of the right-wing's takeover of the GOP, would run and support Clement they way they're supporting Bredesen over a right-wing Hilleary.
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