India: Border With Pakistan Stable (complete with Vanity Post and a Nice Big Map!)

NEW DELHI, India (AP) - India's defense minister insisted Friday the border with Pakistan was stable, even as Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz warned that a war between the South Asian rivals would be "somewhere between terrible and catastrophic."

Diplomatic pressure grew to avert another war between the nuclear-armed rivals, and the United States, Britain, New Zealand, Canada and Australia urged their citizens to consider leaving India.

Indian officials played down fears of a conflict over disputed Kashmir (news - web sites), even as Pakistan pulled soldiers away from the Afghan border, where they had been helping the U.S.-led war on terrorism. Pakistani officials said they were considering moving the soldiers toward India.

"There isn't any change on the ground," Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes told The Associated Press in Singapore, where he was attending an Asian defense conference. "The situation is stable."

Wolfowitz, who was also at the conference, said U.S. efforts to prevent war include both promises of incentives and warnings of punishments. He did not say what the incentives or punishments would be.

"I don't think we believe in exhortation alone," Wolfowitz said. He said a war between the nuclear rivals would be "somewhere between terrible and catastrophic" and would destroy hard-earned improvements in U.S. relations with both countries.

A top Indian military officer said Friday on condition of anonymity that the diplomatic pressure on both countries was unprecedented and playing a major role.

President Bush (news - web sites) announced Thursday that he would send Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld to the region next week. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage also is scheduled to visit Islamabad and New Delhi next week.

Shelling continued Friday across the tense frontier separating India and Pakistan in Kashmir, the divided Himalayan region both nations claim and have fought two wars over.

Pakistan's military said Indian shelling killed one Pakistani and injured two others Friday. India said Pakistani shelling killed one border guard and four soldiers. In another incident, five Indian police were injured when suspected Islamic militants lobbed a grenade.

Stock markets in India and Pakistan appeared to be taking the war fears in stride. The Bombay exchange's key Sensex index has dipped by about 4 percent this year, while Pakistan's KSE-100 index was actually up by 31 percent in the first five months of 2002.

The rivals have about 1 million soldiers on high alert along their border, and Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf said he was considering moving more troops to Kashmir.

"The entire Pakistani nation will be behind the armed forces who are ready to defend the motherland in the event of war," Pakistani Information Minister Nisar Memon said.

Pakistan was believed to have about 6,000 troops along the Afghan border. They were deployed to help U.S.-led forces track down al-Qaida and Taliban fighters who took refuge in the mountains on both sides of the frontier.

Rashid Quereshi, a spokesman for Musharraf, confirmed a pullback of troops Friday and said their deployment depended "on how the threat continues to increase from India."

A leaflet circulated outside mosques in Pakistan's capital on Friday urged the faithful to overthrow Musharraf, calling him a "corrupt policeman" for the United States.

Memon called the leaflet "the work of extremists who wish to take advantage of the situation" between India and Pakistan.

Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee will attend a summit in Kazakhstan next week, where Russian President Vladimir Putin (news - web sites) hopes to organize face-to-face talks.

Pakistan has agreed. But an Indian Foreign Ministry official reiterated that Vajpayee had no intention of attending private talks with Musharraf until cross-border infiltration by Islamic militants ends.

With no sign that either India or Pakistan was offering a diplomatic solution in Kashmir, concern mounted about a broader military conflict. Both India and Pakistan tested nuclear weapons in 1998, raising the stakes in their long-standing rivalry.

India regularly informs the United States through diplomatic channels that it intends to go to war over Kashmir if attacks by extremists are not curtailed, a senior U.S. official told The Associated Press. But India has not advised the Bush administration how it would conduct such a conflict, said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

India accuses Pakistan of supporting Islamic militant groups waging an insurgency in the Indian-ruled portion of Kashmir, and has demanded it stop cross-border infiltrations. Pakistan says it provides moral support for the insurgents, but denies funding or training them.

Well, I know it sounds like things might be calming down over there, but don't get your hopes up too high. Remember that although the New York "operation" didn't lead to an uprising among the Islamic umma, the Bin Ladenists still have some tricks up thier sleeve. The Kashmir is their hole card.

You'll recall that several months back there was a vicious attack on the Indian Parliament House. That attack had all the trademarks of Al Qaeda. Recently, "Kashmiri Militants" raided an Indian military outpost and killed 31 soldiers and family members. This smells of Al Qaeda, and I think that the Jihadi are going to do what they can to stoke tensions in the area and provoke India into war for the following reasons:

1. The millenialists who run Al Qaeda want to bring down Musharraf.
2. They want a Pakistani warhead or two. Might come in handy later.

Now then, suppose there is a war. Suppose the AQ is able to pull this off. Well, the Indians would know that AQ is part of the problem, and they would also want to deal with the Kashmiri seperatists. In the following paragraphs, I'll try to give you all my take on how the war would go, given the balance of forces and the following political and military assumptions.

The political assumptions behind an Indian offensive are:

1. Pakistan is isolated politically because Indian diplomacy has successfully painted the Kashmiri/AQ axis as "terrorist", thus making American efforts to be "evenhanded" difficult.
2. The Great Powers (U.S., Russia, China, France, the UK, the Continent, and Japan) remain neutral.
3. The Arab League remains neutral.

The military assumptions behind the invasion are as follows:

1. Despite the present sabre-rattling, nuclear weapons will not be used, simply because Indian aims will be limited, the Pakistanis know they will be limited, and American pressure on both powers will be enormous.
2. India will blockade the port of Karachi, in case political assumption "3" above is in error.
3. India will have air supremacy after five days of fierce Pakistani resistance. There will be no American spare parts for the F-16's.

Let's take a look at a U.N. map of Jammu and Kashmir....

On the eastern side of the "Line of Control" are between 400,000 and 700,000 Indian Army troops. West of the LOC are between 75,000 and 300,000 Pakistani Army troops.

Notice the salient jutting out of Indian Kashmir towards the Indus River. There's a road network that runs out of the provincial capitol of Srinagar. Indian leg, panzergrenadier, and panzer formations will assemble, in all probability, just south of Srinigar in the Vale of Kashmir area, shielded by the Pir Panjai Range to the West. To the northeast of Srinigar, another Indian Army group will assemble along the LOC, probably in three or four infantry corp groups, along a jump off line running from Srinigar in the South to the Saltoro Range in the North.

The model for the Indian attack will be the German Sichelschnitt operation of May, 1940. Sometime before D-Day, Indian Special forces will attack nuclear installations and other important outposts, such as C3I assets. At H-hour itself, a tremendous artillery barrage will signal the advance of "Army Group North" along the Eastern Indus and Shyok rivers, with the tactical objective being Skardu. It is assumed that fierce Pakistani resistance will increase as the Indian Army advances along these river valleys.

Meanwhile, back at the assembly area, the commander of "Army Group South" will probably wait as long as 24, perhaps even 48 hours in the hopes that the Pakistani Army will be suckered into a big fight in the northeast (along with as many militants and Al Qaeda that the ISI and the Jihadists can muster). Then the Indian Air Force, which had been covering the northern advance, will swing south and start deep strike raids all over Pakistan. They will studiously ignore the rather quiet area opposite the salient west of Sopur.

Once Indian air superiority has been achieved, the trap will be sprung. Indian leg infantry and mech infantry will advance due north out of the assembly area accross the bridges at Sopur and Baramula. They will advance towards the Pakistani town of Kel and the hill country due west of the town. It will be important for any of you watching this war, should it occur, to notice the presence of any bridgeing equipment and combat engineer units in the van of the Indian advance. Their first job will be to establish at least two, preferably three, pontoon bridges over the Jheam river. The Indians, I'm convinced, are going to try to duplicate von Rundstedt's feat of 1940 by cutting the Pakstani Army in Kashmir off from the rest of the country; that's where positioning and logistics will come in, and the Indian General Staff is mindful of this, I am sure.

Once over the Jheam, the mech infantry and panzer troops will move on towards the Indus River. The first phase of the operation should be completed in 48 hours. The most critical phase will occur as the Pakistani Staff realizes that the battle in the south is not an Indian probe but is the schwerpunkt of the whole offensive. For the time being Musharraf will convince his staff that the day can be salvaged and he will begin to assemble Pakistani units from the rest of the country into an assembly area north and west of Islamabad for a counteroffensive.

I'm betting that the Indians have already gamed this out. Here's what they'll do. Go back to the map. Indian leg infantry and mech troops will advance ahead of the Panzers towards the Indus river, with the strategic objective being the highway running along the Indus and the mountain pass at Babusar. They have to sieze that pass and capture the town of Chilas. Many of the Indian armored units will pivot and face southwest to beat back an expected Pakistani counteroffensive (which will be led by armor- the army in the northeast is probably made up of leg infantry, mountain troops, and artillery rigiments.). Indian armor will line up from the schwerpunkt at Kel all the way up to the Babusar pass.

Once again, the combat engineers and logistics units will throw bridges over a river, only this time it will be the Indus. That being done, the full scope of the Indian plan will become clear to Pakistan: Indian troops intend to cut off Jammu and Kashmir from Pakistan altogether by siezing the mountain passes in the northwest on the border of Pakistan proper. If they can apply enough pressure up here, they could get to the passes with mountain troops before the Pakistanis can reinforce these "rear area" garrisons. Meanwhile, Indian mechanized infantry, with a few panzer companies for heavy gunfights, will advance due north up the Indus highway towards Baltit. It is hoped that this move will seal the fate of the northern Pakistani Army, still engaged with (and pinned down by) Indian Army Group North. The Pakistani Army in the north will thus be in a kessel, and, depending on how much pressure the Indians can put on them, suddenly out of a line of supply.

It's about this time, when it's almost too late, that the Pakistani Army will begin an uncoordinated armored offensive on an axis running from the area between Islamabad and the Tarbela Resevoir to the bridgehead at Kel. They will try to duplicate what the Germans attepted to do at St. Lo, cut off the neck of the advancing enemy army. However, Indian artillery and panzer troops will hold defensive positions and, in combination with the Indian Air Force, conduct a static defense of the Indian left flank. They will succeed, but by the time the Pakistani counteroffensive gets under way, the war will be all but over.

Militarily, it will be game, set, match.

The Indians assume that the Great Powers would be able to convince Pakistan of limited Indian aims (we kill the Jihadists, then we withdraw to the LOC, and we hope you have learned your lesson) and will apply unbelievable pressure against Pakistani first use. The Chinese will be ruthlessly abrupt with Pakistan, promising (in exchange for Pakistani concessions) Chinese help at the Peace Conference. The wild card here is Pakistani nuclear weapons release protocol. If some hothead missile regiment commander can initiate a strike, then just light a match and burn up the whole gameboard, so to speak, 'cause some no-account bird colonel is going to send India and Pakistan straight to hell. Again, a big "if". From a strictly military point of view, as long as the Indians don't get bottled up in mountain battles and bypass obstructions while sticking to the river valleys, I don't see how they can lose this thing.

My two cents, for what it's worth, as another Islamic Army gets outwitted. The good thing for the Pakistanis is that they're Punjabis, not Arabs, so they have a lot of fight in them. They won't fold up like a cheap card table, but they will be put to bed.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

The wild card here is Pakistani nuclear weapons release protocol. If some hothead missile regiment commander can initiate a strike, then just light a match and burn up the whole gameboard ...

Pakistan responds to an Indian attack conventionally, but is soon overwhelmed in the air and at sea. Some Paki field commander, fearing the worst or about to be over-run, resorts to tactical nukes (Paki nuke protocols are reportedly very bad - Musharraf claims he has no control, doesn't know the location of Paki nukes. If they're in the field as reported, even if under "loyal" commanders, their security is significantly at risk). India responds in kind, heavily. Total flight time: 3-5 minutes. The World's Shortest and Deadliest War.

The most disconcerting issue is the question of Paki control over their own nukes. There are multiple reports on loose management of Paki nukes. The sources quoted are not all considered highly reliable, but some (U.S.) seem to be reasonably reliable. And they do paint a consistent picture. Does Musharraf have control? One hopes so, but given the level of sophistication in that part of the world, it is easy to imagine that fail-safe and C&C procedures are weak, especially with tactical nukes. I find it difficult to imagine that Pakistan has multiple, secure, nuclear-storage facilities, for example. The religious, political, and personal ambitions of the key Paki players makes it an interesting brew.

I think Musharraf is trying to clamp down on the jihadis, but he does't have complete cooperation. Hopefully he'll convince the ISI troops to cool it for the 2 weeks that India demands. We'll see. Are there any wild-eyed fanatics beyond ISI control out there? Probably. If the jihadis, or even key segments of the Paki military, spin out of control, all bets are off.

One hopeful spin on events to date is that Mush is ratcheting up the rhetoric to cover for the crackdown on the jihadis. Mush is whipping the Pakis into a near-frenzy over the nuke option. Meanwhile, he is cracking down on the bad players. India eventually sees that LoC activities have dropped significantly, so they can pull back. Mush can then claim that India withdrew because they feared Paki nukes. Dangerous brinksmanship, but better than the alternative.

Finally, there is the hope of a deus ex machina scenario that isn't public knowledge. Does the US have assets on the ground or in the sky to help pinpoint the location of Paki nukes in real-time? One fervently hopes.

Freegards,

MI

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India:Border With Pakistan Stable