And because investors represent two of every three voters and will continue to grow over time, this puts the Democratic Party in a very difficult spot.
Posted on 08/16/2002 6:36:29 AM PDT by Alex P. Keaton
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Matthew Dowd, Senior Advisor, RNC
RE: Investors vs. Non-Investors:
Why The Democrat Attacks Aren't Working
Since the mid-80’s the number of people invested in the stock market has more than doubled. Today roughly two-thirds of American voters have some investment in the stock market from individual stocks, retirement plans,
mutual funds, etc. This is a group that carries quite a bit of weight today at the polls, but lately is has been a bit misinterpreted.
Democrats, some in the media and many pundits have assumed that the stock market falling over the last few months spelled doom for President Bush and the Republican Party. This assumption was based on the fact that so many people have investments in the market and have experienced losses. It was assumed that these investors would blame Republicans. Some "renowned" pollsters and pundits even went as far as to assert that the anger among this group of voters would mean serious trouble for the Republican Party.
I hesitate to bring this up (not really), but the facts dispute these conclusions. In January of this year Republicans had a generic ballot advantage of eight points among voters who invest (Republicans 40% to
Democrats 32%). Among voters who do not invest, Democrats had an advantage of one or two points. Again, keep in mind voters who invest out number non-investors by two to one. At this time, President Bush’s approval rating was in the mid-80’s with both groups.
Today, in the latest tracking polls, Republicans have a net generic ballot advantage of 13 points (45% for Republicans and 32% for Democrats) among investors. This is a net increase of five points since January of this year among voters who have been hardest hit by a decline in the stock market! Among voters who do not invest, Democrats have an eighteen-point advantage.
Non-investing voters are dominated to a large degree by Democratic partisans. Again, investing voters far outnumber non investors, which is why when you
look at the whole group of voters, the generic ballot number is tied, which it has been for six months.
Further, currently President Bush enjoys an approval rating in the mid-70’s among investors, and an approval rating in the low 70’s among non-investors. Thus, while we predicted the President’s approval rating would slowly decline over time, his decline among investing voters has actually been slower than among non-investors. Again, not supporting the pundit speculation.
So the question is why? There are several reasons. First, investing voters, as a whole are more optimistic than non-investors because they are in the market. While investors are worried about their retirement and savings, they understand better the cyclical nature of stock fluctuations and movement. They generally have an attitude that even though things are not where they would like them, the market has a tendency to rise over time. Second, the investing voters see the government playing a reduced role in the very large historic economic cycles. Though they list the economy as their number one issue and
desire further action, they have a pretty realistic understanding of the ebb and flow of business growth. While they want the political sphere to play a constructive role and believe that policies like tax cuts, corporate accountability rules with tough enforcement and free trade can assist in positive movement, these voters understand that the economy follows long term
patterns not necessarily dictated by hour by hour partisan back and forth. Interestingly, while Republicans have faired worse over the last few months among non-investors, the number one issue among non-investors is education, not the economy as it is with investors.
Finally, a major political development over the course of the last few years, as more and more Americans are part of the investing world, is the "Investment Gap" that has widened and become significant over time. As one can see from the above figures, the "Investment Gap" now is staggering 31 points (Republican generic ballot advantage of 13 plus the Democrat advantage with non-investors of 18). In January this "Investment Gap" was 10 points. In the past, when the now famous "Gender Gap" was highlighted as significant it was 15 to 20 points.
Today, Democrats are having difficulty at the polls to a large degree because of their inability to garner a competitive number of votes among this rather dominant group of voters who invest. A key reason they don’t have strong support is the party’s lack of a clearly defined economic agenda as a companion to their attacks. Further complicating things for Democrats is the fact that this investing group of voters is more moderate than non-investors, contains a larger share of union households, is split evenly between men and women, and nearly two-thirds of the women in this group work outside the home.
And because investors represent two of every three voters and will continue to grow over time, this puts the Democratic Party in a very difficult spot.
Yes, very interesting, Alex.
Coop--some generic "polling" stuff to chew on in here....
And a good one. Whether that sentiment holds though is another story. The market/economy has (or seems to have) settled and may be a nothing issue. Long way to go to votin' time. Plus, Iraq is heating up big time and pubbies fare better on national security issues. Always interesting to follow. Will get very exciting come late October...
Yeah, right. Like we'll ever know what really would have happened without the Florida call and voting fraud. Yet the popular vote means nothing in a Presidential election.
By a whopping one seat majority courtesy of Benedict Jeffords.
It can be refuted with one, well-worn phrase from 1992:
Interesting analysis, though.
As I post this, the Dow has a small loss, and SPY, QQQ and MDY have gains.
The Third Party Axis of Whining Losers haven't a clue about what is happening in America. They are the most negative bunch of losers on earth. Let them put their money in gold or bury it in old tobacco tin cans in their back yards. They want bad times to come on America even worse than Da$$hole and his group of pathetic losers. What a pathetic group of Whining Losers they represent.
Link to Yahoo Real Time Quotes on DIA, SPY, MDY, QQQ: (YAHOO instant quotes)
That was simply the capper on an amazing string of fortuitous occurrences that allowed the Democrats to regain the Senate. Paul Coverdell's death allowed the Zell Miller appointment in Georgia; Rudy Giulani's prostate cancer allowed Hillary a relatively easy win over Lazio; Mel Carnahan's plane crash allowed his wife to win in Missouri with a sympathy vote (and late-night polling in St. Louis), while Debbie Stabenow and Maria Cantwell won with razor thin margins in Michigan and Washington (particularly Cantwell, with a 2000 vote margin of victory). And then, of course, there was the Jeffords switch. Absolutely everything broke the Democrats' way in the 2000 Senate races. Here's hoping the law of averages swings back the other way this fall.
Too amazing. You encapsulated their odd fortune well. I do not think that that history will repeat itself. It's our turn to fly.
(For the sake of this reply, I'll assume you weren't calling me "stupid.")
Yes, for some of us, it's character. However, I'm fairly well convinced by the past few election cycles that the voting public as a whole is far from agreeing with us on that matter. (Great example: Despite the p*ss-poor campaign waged by Bob Dole's people, if the voters gave a hoot about character, BJ Clinton wouldn't have stood a chance. Those who cared about character didn't sit home and let the Philanderer In Chief get a second term.)
The Dems, with the help of the news media, will likely try to persuade voters that the economy is gloom-and-doom, and that it can only be helped by a changing of the guard in DC. I'll never forget how, in '92, they drummed it into the mushy middle's mushy heads that, "even if you're not hurting, take a look at those around you who are." Then, they'd trot out some folks down on their luck (no matter the reason), and the sheeple were convinced GHWB had to go.
Freedom Is Worth Fighting For !!
Molon Labe !!
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