Observation on TPS damage on Orbiter

NASA photos | 2-3-03 | BoneMccoy

[Budge]

It looks like something is happening on the leading edge of the left wing. It follows a straight line to the anomaly on the trailing edge.

[Budge]

Will post it as soon as I get it, WS.

[Cold Heat]

Budge, you got some mail via E-mail.

[Cold Heat]

It looks like a plasma flare from that portion of the wing.

The wheel well area.

[Budge]

Here you go wirestripper.

[Cold Heat]

Appreciate the help Budge.

[Budge]

The wheel well area.

Looks that way to me too, WS.

[Cold Heat]

It also butts up to the leading edge.

The wing appears up-swept at that point, (looks that way at least)the debris smacked it at a angle that I did not see initially.

[freepersup]

Raises questions about an earlier theory about a burst tire due to a burn through and the chain of events that would ensue- rapid and catastrophic.

Minor sensor changes then total loss of all data. Rapidly unfolding catastrophic chain of events.

[Budge]

I never did buy into the 'burst tire' theory. But I'm no expert by any means.

[Cold Heat]

In the beginning, I believed the foam to have grazed the bottom, but after I ran the sequence about 100 times while tilting my laptop screen, it gave it depth and a perspective of the location.

Anyway, that is what I came up with. The tile is probably a critical one, since it borders both the wing edge and the wheel well.

If this is the cause, then both were compromised, but the well gasket and seat likely failed first causing the cover to fall away. The rest was a matter of stripping the tile underlayment off along with the tile. Eventually the skin and then loss of control due to the tremendous drag.

Going to take a nap.

[freepersup]

Nor am I an expert. I didn't give the burst tire much thought at the time. Seeing where the strike was marked on the grid paper raised the question with me just now, especially when combined with the knowledge (theory) that when whatever happened, it was rapid and severe.

Of course it goes without saying that at 12,000 - 15,000 mph an uh-oh is going to be bad.

No proof or facts to say- I think a tire burst. Just playing what if. Would a burst tire blow out the bottom of the wing ? If so, it would create a hell of a drag problem. There are sensor indications that the ship rolled or there was a yaw- first left then right. Just wondering...

I keep thinking about minor sensor changes then, (no further warning) all data is lost. I presume the shuttle was destroyed in mere seconds, following the 'event' and then the drop off of all data occurs.

So... a burst tire... blowing out the bottom of the wing... creating tremendous drag (gaping hole / hanging debris) shuttle rolls / yaws left... auto pilot compensates / over-compensates... shuttle rolls / yaws right... exposes unprotected fuselage to intense re-entry heat... shuttle disintegrates.

Just horsing around with ideas. Flame retardent suit is on and all systems functioning.

[freepersup]

I find the discourse to be fascinating as the Free Republic engineers continue to work the problem. I appreciate the opportunity to mix it up with those of you in the business and those of you in the know, and those of you that may be in my shoes, just darn interested and willing to chime in.

[FreedomCalls]

Hey it works. I downloaded the images, shrank them a little, and placed them side-by-side and used the old "free vision" or "magic-eye" technique to view them in 3-D. It makes it much more obvious what is going on with the direction and location of the foam.

[Budge]

Flame retardent suit isn't necessary as far as I'm concerned. :)

The only thing about the burst tire theory is the sensors. It would seem that a sensor would have indicated a rise in preasure. even if it were a fraction of a second before it would have burst.

I could be wrong, naturally, but that's what I think.

As slowly as the temps rose, it looks like a very fine crack might have been in the wheel door allowing that rise until t got too hot. Then all hell broke loose. But what do I know. Sigh.

[freepersup]

That slow rise in temperature lead to the cataclysmic event.

Plasma found a way into the wing... substantial reaction to the heat... something created drag... the ship reacted... the ship compensated... then total destruction...

I'd be interested in knowing how much time elapsed, once the craft reacted to the left wing event, and the moment the craft came apart ? 10 seconds, 20 seconds, 30 seconds ?

[John Jamieson]

Thats it. The left wing is trailing flame to me. The front edge has to be burning, but the Astronauts couldn't see it. The wing has to be still in basically the right shape for there to have been few aerodynamic effects at this point.

We don't have a good time for this image!?

[XBob]

452-"So... a burst tire... blowing out the bottom of the wing... creating tremendous drag (gaping hole / hanging debris) shuttle rolls / yaws left... auto pilot compensates / over-compensates... shuttle rolls / yaws right... exposes unprotected fuselage to intense re-entry heat... shuttle disintegrates. "

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glad you are coming up with what I have been trying to say for days.

[aruanan]

My observation is that if the plume was composed primarily of ET insulation, the plume should have the color characteristics of ET insulation. This plume has a white color.

Unfortunately, ET insulation is orange/brown in color.

An aerosol or dust of something that is dark when solid (like dirt, for instance) can look lighter when dispersed in the air.

[Straight Vermonter]

All data from the orbiter then stopped and the position plot display in Mission Control froze over Texas, although an additional 30 sec. of poor data may have been captured.

Maybe someone has already addressed this but the MSNBC expert (Barberi? )said this morning that NASA's computers are designed to screen out "nonsense" data. According to him there maybe relevant and possibly recoverable data that the computers screened out because they thought the data was nonsense.