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Dark Smallpox Winter
The Wall Street Journal | February 11, 2003

Posted on 02/11/2003 7:56:54 AM PST by Dave S

Dark Smallpox Winter

Ask a Bush Administration official privately about the chances of another terror attack on the U.S., and the answer invariably is 100%. That's only one of the reasons it's troubling that health-care unions and many hospitals are resisting precautionary vaccination for smallpox.

The Bush smallpox vaccination program was supposed to be completed by the end of this month, yet so far only 700 of 500,000 emergency workers have received shots. Two of the nation's largest health-care unions are actually urging members to refuse vaccinations until the feds cough up special "compensation." (They are the Service Employees International Union and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees.) And any number of hospitals have refused to let first-responders take part in the first phase of the smallpox plan, partly because they say it will cost too much.

These outfits should spend a few minutes reading some of the bioterror documents that have influenced Administration decisions. One in particular noted recently by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is an account of "Dark Winter," a war game hosted by the Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Strategies in 2001. Its name certainly fits the outcome.

Dark Winter posed a realistic scenario in which 3,000 people were initially infected with smallpox -- possible with just 30 grams (a little over one ounce) of weaponized virus. It assumed each person infected 10 others -- a conservative estimate given that there has never been an outbreak in such a dense, mobile, unvaccinated population as today's U.S.

In the simulation, 12 members of the National Security Council are informed that smallpox has broken out: 20 cases confirmed in Oklahoma, with reports of more in Georgia and Pennsylvania. (They will later discover it was released in three shopping malls.) They are told the facts: Smallpox has a 30% fatality rate, there is no treatment, and it spreads from person to person. The country maintains just 15.4 million doses of vaccine.

The NSC chooses to vaccinate only essential personnel and anyone who has had contact with the infected, a strategy known as ring vaccination. By six days into the epidemic, 2,000 cases have been reported in 15 states, with 300 deaths. The disease spreads to Britain, as well as Canada and Mexico, which demand U.S. vaccine serum. Only 1.25 million doses remain, and their distribution becomes violent.

International borders are closed, and food shortages follow. In many states the public health system is overwhelmed and care deteriorates. Civil liberties are suspended: Schools close, some public gatherings are forbidden, states limit travel. Drug companies can't make more vaccine for five weeks.

By 13 days in, 16,000 cases are reported in 25 states -- 14,000 in the past 24 hours alone. One thousand people have died and 10 countries have outbreaks. The vaccine is gone, the economy is faltering and residents are fleeing infected areas. A panicked public demands forcible quarantine of victims and their contacts, though by this time that has become logistically impossible.

Then comes the blackmail. Newspapers receive a letter demanding the removal of U.S. forces from Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf within a week. The letter threatens a new smallpox attack, combined with anthrax and the plague, if the U.S doesn't comply. It contains a genetic fingerprint matching the smallpox strain, proving its veracity.

Dark Winter's simulation ends at this point, though by the time the virus runs its course the U.S., in a worst-case scenario, faced three million cases and one million deaths. Much of what the country values -- civil liberties, world power, economic security, access to health care, equal treatment under the law -- has been damaged along the way.

The point here isn't to scare people . . . well, maybe it is; 15 months after the anthrax attacks, bioterror is a real threat. Protecting against smallpox in advance may make it less likely that an enemy would resort to its use. Dark Winter also underscores how vulnerable U.S. society will remain even with precautions, meaning that the best homeland defense continues to be taking the battle to terrorists abroad and to the states that harbor them.

As for union objections, the Bush Administration is preparing a compensation fund for anyone injured by the vaccine. But keep in mind that emergency workers already have insurance and worker's comp, and that health-care workers are already exposed to unusual risk of germs and illness as part of their daily lives.

No homeland defense plan will work without the cooperation of all Americans, especially its leading institutions. The unions and public-health officials resisting smallpox vaccination will have a lot to answer for if there is an attack and Americans remain unprepared.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Government
KEYWORDS: smallpox; terrorism; vacinnation
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To: section9
Buy yourself some nice Remington shells and you can't go wrong.
21 posted on 02/11/2003 8:30:14 AM PST by Hemingway's Ghost
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To: TXBubba
Check out this link, it has recipes for making baby formula. It involves powedered milk, water, oil and vitamins. You can stock these ingredients easily, I do.

Click on the link and then go to information.

http://www.usdpi.org/

22 posted on 02/11/2003 8:31:45 AM PST by Cicero5
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To: section9
It is a shotgun. Pump action.

Then it can't be an aught six. What gauge? Standard? Magnum?

23 posted on 02/11/2003 8:33:41 AM PST by Hemingway's Ghost
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To: Dave S
Why? They'll just quarantine your town and do a house to house search for food and weapons. They'll confiscate the food to feed those who were to busy watching football to get prepared. They'll confiscate the weapons to make sure you can't oppose them at a future date. Of course "Officer Friendly" will "just be doing his job" and in his mind he'll be saving America. Good luck.
24 posted on 02/11/2003 8:34:10 AM PST by dljordan
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To: Hemingway's Ghost

Remington, eh? Sounds like a good name.

Well, gents. Time to go buy some goodies.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

25 posted on 02/11/2003 8:34:33 AM PST by section9 (The girl in the picture is Major Motoko Kusanagi from "Ghost In the Shell". Any questions?)
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To: section9
If you have a 30.06 shotgun, I'd love to see it. You are usually very knowledgeable, so I can't tell if this is some kind of a joke. The designation 30.06 is a rifle caliber.
26 posted on 02/11/2003 8:35:39 AM PST by Petronski (I'm not always cranky.)
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To: section9
I have a 30.06 shotgun that's in a box but has been kept in an air conditioned environment for several years.

Unless you're referring to some sort of over/under rifle/shotgun combination, I assume this is a either a shotgun or a rifle. In either case, the treatment is pretty much the same.

I would assume I should take it to a gunsmith for a standard cleaning and once-over?

Unless there is some heavy rust or deep corrosion, there is no reason you can't do the job pretty simply yourself.

You can buy a inexpensive cleaning kit in any gun shop or Wal-Mart, as well as the gun cleaner and oil. Ask any salesman for help. There is probably no need to completely disassemble the weapon unless it is in very bad condition and you can probably tell that by looking at it, trying the action and checking the barrel. Carefully clean the barrel and action of dust (after making sure it is unloaded, of course) and lightly oiling the barrel and working parts should do the trick nicely. Make sure you remove all obstructions from the barrel. Dry firing without ammunition in the chamber a few times while cycling the action will pretty much tell you if it is ready to fire. However, it would certainly be best to test fire a few actual rounds and you can also then check the accuracy of the sights.

BTW, what's a good, reliable brand of 30.06 shell?

Any brand you buy in the store is fine.

If it is a shotgun, #4 shot is good all around for small animals, such as rabbits and large birds. It can also be used for close in home defense. However, any of the "buckshot" calibres are better for defense, such as #1 and #00, as they will give a longer lethal range if that is a consideration. They will also kill larger game if necessary.

27 posted on 02/11/2003 8:35:42 AM PST by Gritty
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To: Dave S; Dog Gone
One of the funniest threads ever on FR was one started by FReeper 'Dog Gone', I think it was titled something like, "You Know You Have A Y2K Problem When:"
28 posted on 02/11/2003 8:40:58 AM PST by blam
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To: Hemingway's Ghost

Just looked at the barrel. Stevens/Savage Model 67 Pump action, pump-action magazine loaded. 12 Guage. Uses 2&3/4 and 3 inch cartridges.

In sterling condition. DEFINITELY needs oiling and cleaning, however.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

29 posted on 02/11/2003 8:46:56 AM PST by section9 (The girl in the picture is Major Motoko Kusanagi from "Ghost In the Shell". Any questions?)
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To: Gritty
I use .000 buck....works good. 9 .32 calibre balls in each shell.
30 posted on 02/11/2003 8:48:12 AM PST by judicial meanz
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To: section9
A pump action shotgun is an exellent all arround choice as a defense weapon. I personally agree about the commando terror tactics also being a very real threat. You did not state what specic gauge the shotgun is but I presumin 12 ga, 16 ga 20ga or maybe 28 ga. As a general rule the choice of shells will be governed by the type of target and range you are shooting.

Once more the three most common shotgun shell manufacturers are Remmington, Winchester, and Federal. All are prmium quality ammunition manufacturers.

For personal defense inside one's home bird shot prevents some overpenetration problems but as a general rule over ranges greater than 10 feet i would suggest buck shot. There are a number of opinions about what size shot (diameter of the balls of lead inside the shotgun shell) is optimum. I personally recommend alternating #00 buckshot with #4. I do not know the specifics about which pump action you have in its box but it should be very serviceable. Once more I heartily recommend a handgun as a companion to your shotgun. The handgun is there when the shotgun has been left for daily tasks that may have to be accomplished with a threat present

31 posted on 02/11/2003 8:52:02 AM PST by harpseal (Stay well - Stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown)
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To: section9
Buy yourself some 3" #2s to do some serious damage and some 2.75 #7-9 for general bird shooting/hunting. It's always nice to have some deer slugs and buckshot, too.

32 posted on 02/11/2003 8:56:42 AM PST by Hemingway's Ghost
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To: section9
If it is in sterling condition then I would suggest a vist to any good sporting goods store and get a gun cleaning kit which will have lubricating oil in it. Remember a very very light coat of oil is what is needed. The technique is oil it and then wipe off the excess oil. Get a fleece end for the cleaning rod and run t through the barrel then oil lightly wipe off the excess and you will be fine.

One still has to sight the shotgun because even at 25 yards the pattern of shot is not wide enough so a general direction shot will stop whatever you are shooting but it does have many advantages as long as it is handy.

33 posted on 02/11/2003 8:58:20 AM PST by harpseal (Stay well - Stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown)
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To: Dave S
>>No homeland defense plan will work without the cooperation of all Americans, especially its leading institutions. The unions and public-health officials resisting smallpox vaccination will have a lot to answer for if there is an attack and Americans remain unprepared<<

The government has sufficient authority to mandate this vaccination program, and if they think they don't, they should go to Congress to get it.

Instead, they have created a decentralized, voluntary program with an overlay of highly overblown risk disclosure in the name of "voluntary informed consent".

My impression is that the officials involved want broader smallpox vaccine coverage but they are terrified of blame should anyone be harmed.

This is no way to run a railroad.

34 posted on 02/11/2003 8:59:10 AM PST by Jim Noble
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To: harpseal

Did I not? 12 Guage. Thanks for the advice on ammos. Hajj Week is almost over guys! Time to clean and oil....

There are two ways American civilians would act using rifles and shotguns.

1. For home self defense (this is where your birdshot comes in...).

2. In groups, operating as Militia or Home Guard, under the command of a duly constituted Law Officer (see Jeff Head's excellent Dragon's Fury series for an illustration using a hypothetical Chinese attack on the Klamath Falls Lock and Dam system as an illustration: I think that is what we are looking forward to). That, I suppose, it where your buckshot comes in.

And yes, I know, having an M1A Garand in one's hand is far preferable to having a shotgun in a tactical assault environment.

Oh, yes, and I do know one thing about the safe operation of a firearm: aim just below the turban and squeeze very slowly.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

35 posted on 02/11/2003 9:01:03 AM PST by section9 (The girl in the picture is Major Motoko Kusanagi from "Ghost In the Shell". Any questions?)
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To: Dave S
For those interested in the "Dark WInter" scenario, here's a link to the actual study. The slide show is particularly interesting (disturbing).

http://www.hopkins-biodefense.org/darkwinter.html
36 posted on 02/11/2003 9:03:40 AM PST by Damocles (Tag. You're it...)
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To: blam
That was a hoot. I can't find it now, so it may have disappeared into the cosmos.
37 posted on 02/11/2003 9:03:44 AM PST by Dog Gone
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To: section9
2nd Ammendment won't help much in quarantined areas. Cops, FEMA and ATF will kill you like a dog if you try to get out.

Worst case scenario would be roving mobs of looters... armed. There will be no LE available to help you out.

Save the last bullet for yourself... section9.

38 posted on 02/11/2003 9:04:43 AM PST by johnny7 (The number you have reached... 911, is no longer in service.)
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To: 1Old Pro
I hear the shopping centers in Beverly Hills have no security.

That's cuz Winona Ryder's locked up.

39 posted on 02/11/2003 9:10:52 AM PST by Redcloak (Jøìn thë Çøålìtìon tø Prëvënt the Åbûsë of Ûnnëçëssårìlÿ Lëngthÿ, Vërbøsë ånd Nønsënsìçål Tåg Lìnës)
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To: johnny7

I've always believed that we're made of sterner stuff than that.

Don't underestimate people with common sense. That's what the 2A is all about. Quarantined areas will exist, period. That's just a fact of life.

My scenario posits a fifth column of trained AQ saboteours and terrorists. Remember, AQ has had years to prepare.

It is advisable to plan as if LEO is paralyzed for a short period of time, or is somehow preoccupied. How and ever, 'tis best to stay safe.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

40 posted on 02/11/2003 9:10:54 AM PST by section9 (The girl in the picture is Major Motoko Kusanagi from "Ghost In the Shell". Any questions?)
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