Blackout-The Terror Question

ABC News ^ | 8/15/03 | Brian Ross

[Pro-Bush]

Don't rule anything out.

[Paleo Conservative]

I don't think terrorists caused the blackout; however, a blackout would be an ideal time for a terrorist to attack other targets.

[thegreatbeast]

I would like to know why administration figures and authorities come rushing out with denials when you know it is really too early to speak competently about causes. It is a barbrastreisand move that builds distrust. Just say that there is no reason to think it was terrorism but that investigation is still ongoing. Claims about lightning bolts or swap gas are just insulting.

[Steel Wolf]

As they stated earlier, electronic attacks against our civil infrastructure would be pretty easy and effective. However, on it's own it's not a very effective measure, it probably won't even cost you reelection even if they know you're guilty.

That having been said, a blackout could be set up prior to a terrorist attack, and it would have the effect of magnifying the terror. Imagine the effect of 9-11 if New York's power had been cut just minutes prior to the attacks. As a force multiplier for a terrorist strike, it would be devastaing.

[MJY1288]

IMHO, If this was a terrorist act... the power outage would have been used as a diversion for a more sophisticated attack against us, instead of just a simple 24 to 36 hour inconvienence.

My personal opinion is that this whole power failure story has been way over blown by the 24 hour Cable NEWS outlets.

[Pro-Bush]

Totally, they discounted terrorism from the get-go. I think it was done pre-maturally. Especially in light of the viruses floating around.

[Pro-Bush]

The blackout could have been a cover-up for the terrorist.. allowing for the opportunity to move people and assests into position for a greater attack.

Highly doubtful but a possibility.

[Mihalis]

This blackout could be a trial run for an upcoming terrorist act. The administration was too quick to discount terrorism.

[E Rocc]

I don't think terrorists caused the blackout; however, a blackout would be an ideal time for a terrorist to attack other targets.

I agree, which is why I don't think this one was caused by terrorists. I do suspect that the cause was a vulnerability they could utilize, hence all the odd speculation on the cause. The real one, they don't want to talk about.

-Eric

[Paleo Conservative]

That having been said, a blackout could be set up prior to a terrorist attack, and it would have the effect of magnifying the terror. Imagine the effect of 9-11 if New York's power had been cut just minutes prior to the attacks. As a force multiplier for a terrorist strike, it would be devastaing.

Also massive power outages would create holes in the radar coverage of the air traffic control system. Also, cell phones and possibly portions of the internet would go down. It's possible the calls to passengers on flight 93 might not have gotten through.

[JustPiper]

Bump! I sure don't rule anything but natural cause out ;)

[jaykay]

So called "authorities" were on the radio, and TV as well I'm sure, denying the possibility of terrorism almost instantly. Meanwhile, hours later and into the next day there's finger pointing between Michigan and Ohio, between U.S. and Canada, theories about lightning or a fire at a power plant. If they can't figure out what happened or even where it happened how can they be so sure what didn't happen? Rushing to squash the terrorism possibility before they could really have known for sure insults the public's intelligence and damages the official's credibility.

[rageaholic]

Al Kaida are living in the stone ages. They can steal and smash things but something like this is beyond their stunted capability. Anyway, they are into mass death and destruction. They are not into "inconvenience."

[bets]

Everybody knows that if a hacker is successful, the best thing to do is to not give them credit for the attack. That just drives them nuts! (either that or HIRE them)

If it was caused by terrorist hackers, then bravo for the gov if we just say "Aw, it was just lightening." That should boil the blood of the terrorists, who want a lot of publicity and credit.

[Pro-Bush]

Glad I am not the only one.

[bets]

They are not into "inconvenience."

Yes, but they weren't expecting us to be civilized. They expected madness and mayhem. Massive crime spree. Economic system collapse, etc.....(mainly looking for economic impact).

Sorry fella's - not today.

[this_ol_patriot]

Well there's this.

This is a test. This is only a test, in the event of a real emergency...

Maybe it got away from them.

[HitmanLV]

Yes - it was interesting to me that almost immediately they were saying it wasn't terrorist related, while it was still clear to everyone that they didn't know the cause of the blackout.

If they didn't know the cause, how could they rule out terrorism?

Clearly the admin has a policy to deny terrorism out of the chute for any ambiguous incident. That isn't good.

[angkor]

Perhaps this was another Red Team attack gone amuck (as in the 1996 outage on the west coast, when "a bird hit a power line" and took out the entire northwest). That one occurred 6 months after the founding of the National Infrastructure Protection Commission, which publicly stated it would be testing national infrastructure systems.

Cyber-Attacks by Al Qaeda Feared
Terrorists at Threshold of Using Internet as Tool of Bloodshed, Experts Say

By Barton Gellman
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, June 27, 2002; Page A01

[snip]

... Working with experts at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the FBI traced trails of a broader reconnaissance. A forensic summary of the investigation, prepared in the Defense Department, said the bureau found "multiple casings of sites" nationwide. Routed through telecommunications switches in Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and Pakistan, the visitors studied emergency telephone systems, electrical generation and transmission, water storage and distribution, nuclear power plants and gas facilities.

[snip]

Specialized digital devices are used by the millions as the brains of American "critical infrastructure" -- a term defined by federal directive to mean industrial sectors that are "essential to the minimum operations of the economy and government."

The devices are called distributed control systems, or DCS, and supervisory control and data acquisition, or SCADA, systems. The simplest ones collect measurements, throw railway switches, close circuit-breakers or adjust valves in the pipes that carry water, oil and gas. More complicated versions sift incoming data, govern multiple devices and cover a broader area.

[snip]

Massoud Amin, a mathematician directing new security efforts in the industry, described the North American power grid as "the most complex machine ever built." At an April 2 conference hosted by the Commerce Department, participants said, government and industry scientists agreed that they have no idea how the grid would respond to a cyber-attack.

What they do know is that "Red Teams" of mock intruders from the Energy Department's four national laboratories have devised what one government document listed as "eight scenarios for SCADA attack on an electrical power grid" -- and all of them work. Eighteen such exercises have been conducted to date against large regional utilities, and Richard A. Clarke, Bush's cyber- security adviser, said the intruders "have always, always succeeded."

Joseph M. Weiss of KEMA Consulting, a leading expert in control system security, reported at two recent industry conferences that intruders were "able to assemble a detailed map" of each system and "intercepted and changed" SCADA commands without detection.

[end of excerpt, see link above for remainder]

[harpseal]

Regarding the possibility of terrorists initiating Thursday's blackout until we know the actual cause there is no reason to rule it out. That said until we have some evidence that terrorism was the cause there is no reason to speculate that it was.

Now presuming that this particular attack was not caused by terrorism it does point out a possible future target to terrorist cells that would be low risk and easily done. Causing an arc between two high voltage transmission lines would take out those lines. Bringing down a couple of towers which support high voltage trans mission lines would also bring down that line. I can come up with a cheap means to take out an electrical substation using only legaly available substances that are effectively untraceable and legally it would not even qualify as a destructive device. Such a device could be employed by one person acting alone.

I can come up with a means of taking out an electrical transmission line that uses bronze age implements and one person. How many such lines have to be taken down to cause wide spread power failures bring down the grid? I did not go into details because I do not want this to be a how to instruction but five people could take down the grid at least as seriously as this outage and possibly covering a wider area and meaning it would take significantly longer to be back on line.

Now we are also talking some real economic damage here beyond the initial inconvenience. If combined with another attack then we are talking some serious damage to the USA.