I’m in Iowa, too, and have attended several caucuses. I agree with your assessment. I can find people who are supporting Trump but few of them have ever been to a caucus, and, when I ask, don’t appear inclined to attend. Of course, this is just anecdotal experience. I think Cruz will win but it is tighter now than it was earlier. If Cruz loses voters it doesn’t sound like Trump is their second choice. I think many of them will go to Carson or Rubio. So: Cruz 31%, Trump 28%, Rubio 15%, Carson, Paul will be next and then the others.