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In 2006-2007 I called for a recession. We got a big one. I called for another one in 2011, as did the ECRI. That recession never happened. 50% is not a very good recession predicting track record except in comparison to consensus economic opinions that have never once in history predicted a recession. Consensus opinion is batting a perfect 0.00% Investigating the Record By the way, the ECRI was late in calling the recession of 2007. They still deny it. And questions regarding the 2001 recession and ECRI have still not been answered. I have talked about all of this...

Eleven trillion dollars: that’s how much of so-called Quantitative Easing the world’s central banks have done since the 2008 crisis. To put that in perspective, with eleven trillion dollars you could pay off pretty much all U.S. household debt – all mortgages, all car and student loans, credit cards – you name it. So what did the global economy get for $11,000,000,000,000 in QE? Following a post-recession pop, we got collapsing world trade growth, and that’s even with prices falling over the past three to four years. Why is this happening? It’s not because this time around things are different....

In July 2014, ECRI’s International Cyclical Outlook reported “signs of spreading weakness in overall economic growth.” The early warning was based on our Long Leading Index of Global Growth (LLIGG), which was already “hovering near its worst levels since 2011” (top line). The LLIGG subsumes ECRI’s individual long leading indexes for 20 economies that are designed to be mutually comparable across countries, making it appropriate to combine them into a global index. At the time, we observed that, with our analogous Coincident Index of Global Growth (CIGG) “having rolled over” (bottom line) and the LLIGG “in a cyclical downturn, reports...

Despite Tom Keene's best efforts to appear fair-and-balanced, this brief interview on Bloomberg TV places ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in the uncomfortable position of destroying every propagandized 'fact' that the mainstream media is entrusted with disseminating to the Pavlovian investing community. From recessions with job growth ("we believe a US recession began in 2012") to the wealth divide and from GDP revisions to job quality differentials, Achuthan warns the US is becoming Japan, "U.S. growth over the last five years is weaker than Japan during the Lost Decades." Keene's insistence that things are on-the-up (though admitting that Achuthan's call on the...

ACHUTHAN: 'The Explanation Is Simple: Recession Kills Inflation' Sam Ro May 31, 2013, 1:20 PM Lakshman Achuthan, the head of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), continues to be convinced that the U.S. went into a recession in mid-2012. He writes his latest commentary in the wake of today's disappointing personal income and spending report. "Despite surging prices for homes and equities, consumer spending is contracting," writes Achuthan. "Quite simply, the wealth effect is rendered moot by languishing incomes. "No wonder yoy U.S. imports growth has also plunged into negative territory. In the past, this has happened only during U.S....

LAKSHMAN ACHUTHAN: Yes, It's Possible To Be In A Recession With GDP Growth At 2.5% Sam RoApr. 26, 2013, 10:37 AMEarlier today, we learned that real GDP grew at a 2.5% rate in Q1. While this was much lower than the 3.0% growth rate forecasted by economists, it still seems to be a clear indicator of economic growth. But not everyone sees it that way. Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute has long argued that the U.S. economy slipped into a recession in mid-2012. And he is convinced that we continue to be in a recession now. We...

ACHUTHAN: Look At These Charts And Tell Me We're Not In Recession Sam RoMarch 5, 2013, 10:50 PM Since 2011, Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) has been taking a lot of heat for his controversial call that the U.S. economy would fall into a recession. In an apperence with Bloomberg's Tom Keene last November, Achuthan clarified that based on the four official recession indicators considered by the NBER — the folks who date recession — the U.S. fell into recession in July 2012. He also said we would know that the U.S. fell into recession by...

According To ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan, We Are 8 Months Into A Recession Doug Short, Advisor PerspectivesFebruary 1, 2013, 6:33 PM The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) slipped in the latest public data. It is now at 129.7 versus the previous week's upwardly revised 130.7 (previously 130.6). See the WLI chart in the Appendix below. However, the WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose, now at 8.3, up from last week's 7.2. WLIg has been in expansion territory since August 10th of last year, and it is at its highest level since May of 2010. ECRI...

ECRI Update: Reaffirming The Recession Call ... Again Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com) By Doug Short March 11, 2012 The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is now at 0.1 as reported in today's public release of the data through May 4. This is essentially unchanged from last week. However, the underlying WLI again rose fractionally from an adjusted 124.6 to 125.4 (see the fourth chart below). ECRI Reaffirms it's the Recession Call ... Again The big news this week, however, is not the weekly data update but ECRI's latest reaffirmation of its recession call...

U.S. GDP Miss Far Bigger Than Announced, Real GDP Is 0% Housing-Market / US Economy Apr 29, 2012 - 10:21 AM By: Mike Shedlock The Advance Estimate for Q1 GDP came in at 2.2%, down from 3.0% in the previous quarter, and below most mainstream media estimates of 2.5%. However, my friend BC notes .... The GDP deflator is reported to have averaged 1.2% annualized in the past 2 qtrs. Had the trend rate from '11 persisted, the deflator would have subtracted 2.6% annualized from real GDP, resulting in a 2-qtr. growth of real GDP of 0%. ECRI's Achuthan would...

DEAR ECRI: It's Time To Issue A Simple 3-Word Report: 'We Were Wrong' Henry Blodget Mar. 10, 2012 Last September, amid the debt-ceiling debacle and Europe going all to hell, economic-forecasting firm ECRI declared that the economy was "tipping into recession." At the time, this call was not surprising: the economy really did look like it was headed into the tank. ECRI's call also left no wiggle room: Unlike many mealy-mouthed Wall Street predictions, it was precise and clear: "The economy is tipping into a recession." ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan amplified the call with high-profile media appearances in which...

Whereas Achuthan said the jury is still out in late August, the weakness in leading economic indicators — and ECRI uses a dozen for the U.S. alone, he notes — has become a "contagion" that is spreading like "wildfire." Although the recovery has been "subpar" by nearly every measure, Achuthan refutes the idea the economy never got out of recession in the first place. "Just because it looks and feels a certain way doesn't mean it's a recession," he says. "You haven't seen anything yet. It's going to get a lot worse."

So says Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute. Why should we believe him? For one thing, Achuthan was one of the few who predicted a global industrial slowdown near the beginning of the second quarter. For another … er, isn’t it rather obvious by now? And actually, the news gets worse from there: With so much riding on – and priced into – an economic and earnings rebound in the second-half of the year, Achutan not only pours water on that, but ups the ante by saying he cannot rule out slumping into another recession in 2012....

ECRI Chief: We Can Categorically Say There Is NO Double Dip Joe Weisenthal Oct. 29, 2010, 6:28 AM Lakshman Achuthan, the head of the ECRI, which publishes a highly watched leading-indicators report, categorically denies that there will be a double dip. Given the focus on the ECRI leading indicators this summer -- an index that prompted David Rosenberg and others to see a double dip -- this is pretty remarkable stuff. He says the Fed is behind the curve, and not seeing the comeback in the economy that ECRI is already seeing in October.[snip]

ECRI Warns QE2 May Cause Inflation Nightmare by: Kirk Lindstrom October 28, 2010 ECRI says there will be no double dip recession and Fed's planned QE2, a second round of quantitative easing, could lead to unintended "worse nightmare" of high inflation.Earlier Thursday, Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI's co-founder and chief operating officer. and Anirvan Banerji,ECRI's co-founder and chief research officer, wrote: "The much-feared double-dip recession is not going to happen." "That is the message from leading business cycle indicators, which are unmistakably veering away from the recession track, following the patterns seen in post-World War II slowdowns that didn't lead to recession."...

ECRI: Brace Yourself For More Frequent Recessions Over The Next Ten Years Vincent Fernando, CFA Jul. 4, 2010, 6:50 PM This discussion with ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan on All Things Considered is an excellent listen. He explains the Economic Cycle Research Institute's view that A) the slowdown ahead is already a done deal and can't be stopped by any government policy we enact and that B) we face the unfortunate prospect of more frequent recessions over the next ten years. Finally, C) he explains the threat of U.S. unemployment getting worse within the next ten years before it has fully recovered...

It's getting close: the fabled -10% annualized change (see David Rosenberg) which guarantees a recession is now just 3.1% away, which at this rate of collapse will be breached in two weeks. The ECRI is now at December 2007 levels, the time when the last recession officially started. The index dropped from an annualized revised -5.8% (previously -5.7%) to -6.9%. As a reminder, from Rosie, "It is one thing to slip to or fractionally below the zero line, but a -3.5% reading has only sent off two head-fakes in the past, while accurately foreshadowing seven recessions — with a three...

WATCH OUT: The ECRI Leading Indicators Just Went Negative The Pragmatic Capitalist Jun. 11, 2010, 12:42 PM Via Barrons: The Economic Cycle Research Institute today offered up its view of last week’s “weekly leading indicators,” a closely watched private mailing, today showed a dip in the indicator for the week ended last Friday to 123.2, a decline of 3.5%, in contrast to the 0.3% rise the preceding week. The Institute’s Lakshman Achuthan, however, remarked that “While the plunge in WLI growth to a one-year low assures a significant slowing in U.S. economic growth in the coming months, the recent weakness...

DUBLIN: Ireland said yesterday it had appointed a member of the country’s small but growing Muslim community to be its representative on the European Commission against Racism and Intolerance (ECRI). Mazhar Ali Bari replaces former government minister Chris Flood on the ECRI, a body of the Council of Europe. - AFP "I am delighted that Dr Bari has accepted this role," Justice Minister Michael McDowell said in a statement. "He comes to ECRI with a wealth of experience and ideas and I am confident that he will perform his role with the same dedication and energy that he has shown...