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If Donald Trump wins the Republican presidential primary, he is almost a shoo-in to win the presidency this November, a Stony Brook University professor predicts. Professor Helmut Norpoth's statistical model, which looks at a candidate's performance in their party's presidential primary and factors in the broader electoral cycle, shows that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election, reported Stony Brook's newspaper The Statesman. His odds rise to 99 percent against Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. The professor of political science presented his 2016 forecast at the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan on Monday. "Trump...

President Donald Trump is almost certain to win reelection in 2020, according to a political science professor whose “Primary Model” has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996. “The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook Professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite Tuesday. He noted that his model, which he introduced in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome of all but two presidential elections in the last 108 years: “This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.” The exceptions include John F....

Despite recent polls that identify Joe Biden as the heavy favorite in 2020, a political science professor is still standing by his prediction model that shows President Trump having a "91 percent" chance of winning in November. Mediaite reported on Wednesday that Stony Brook Professor Helmut Norpoth is doubling down on his "Primary Model,” which has correctly predicted five out of the past six elections since 1996 and every single election but two in the past 108 years. “The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said. "This model gets it right for 25...

President Donald Trump has a 91 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996. “The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday. Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced. The model calculates the winning candidate based on early presidential nominating contests and placing an...

Caution: The massive disruptions caused by the Coronavirus outbreak may prompt me to revise the forecast, especially if there is a crack in Trump support. Primaries Predict Election Winner -- Cycle Also Favors GOP — Forecast Model Batting 5 for 6 (since 1996) The Primary Model gives President Trump a 91% chance of winning a possible match-up with Democrat Joe Biden in November, based on primary performance in New Hampshire and South Carolina, plus the first-term electoral benefit. Trump would get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176. In a possible match-up with Bernie Sanders in November, Trump’s chance of winning would...