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Developed by Professor Helmut Norpoth of Stoney Brook Univ., Stoney Brook, NY, the Primary Model (PM) algorithm correctly predicted (both retroactively and for elections occurring after the creation of the algorithm in 1996) the outcome of all U.S. Presidential elections from 1912-2016 except two extremely close elections, 1960 (Kennedy vs. Nixon) and 2000 (Bush vs.Gore). The PM algorithm has been correct in 25 out of 27 elections. That is an accuracy rate of 92.6%. The PM is not a poll, it uses real voting numbers based on the the number of votes candidates receive in selected early primaries, (currently the...

Most political prognosticators delay their final predictions for a presidential race until the morning of Election Day. In 2016, for example, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight and Nate Cohn of the New York Times released their final projections during the wee hours of November 8. One forecaster, however, routinely publishes his predictions six months in advance. Professor Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University in New York issued his last word on the Trump–Clinton contest 246 days before the voters went to the polls. In March 2016, Norpoth confidently predicted that Donald Trump would be elected president. He not only contradicted Silver,...

“Indeed, strong enthusiasm for Biden among his supporters – at just 24% – is the lowest on record for a Democratic presidential candidate in 20 years of ABC/Post polls. More than twice as many of Trump’s supporters are highly enthusiastic about supporting him, 53%.” Biden has only bare majority (51%) support among Democrats, and a 24% enthusiasm gap in a match up against Trump. From the ABC News poll write-up: Former Vice President Joe Biden has emerged as Democrats’ top choice for the presidential nomination in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, but with only bare majority support within his...

The public perception problems for Joe Biden are growing. He’s not all there, as is obvious from his disastrous livestreams and TV interviews, and has all but disappeared during the Wuhan coronavirus crisis. A just-released ABC News / Washington Post poll reveals another problem, one that comes as no surprise: Democrats are not enthsiastic about Biden, even as he racks up delegates and appears headed to the nomination. Biden has only bare majority (51%) support among Democrats, and a 24% enthusiasm gap in a match up against Trump.

Jul 02, 202007:49 Model projects 91% chance Trump will get re-elected Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth says the battleground state polls in 2016 were 'way off' and that his model has correctly predicted 24 out of 26 of the past presidential elections.

President Trump is betting big on the primaries. With no serious challengers for the Republican Party nomination and high approval numbers among the GOP’s rank and file, Trump could have cruised through the spring campaign season like most incumbent presidents do. Instead, he traveled to 18 states for campaign rallies and spent more than $155 million to rack up high primary-vote totals for a nomination he had no chance of losing. “I don’t remember any uncontested primary campaign for a sitting president like this,” Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth told The Post. “People don’t normally turn out in large...

A political science professor who predicted President Trump's win in 2016 is forecasting another victory. In an interview on "The Ingraham Angle." Stony Brook University's Helmut Norpoth stated Friday that he believes the key to another victory for the president lies in the examination of primary races. "OK, the key to the November election is the primaries. And, the only primaries [are] already giving us a lot of information," he explained.

Once-obscure political science professor Helmut Norpoth is now basking in the sweet glow of success — and newfound fame — after confidently predicting way back in February that Donald Trump was virtually guaranteed to win the 2016 presidential election. Norpoth, a faculty member at Stony Brook University, announced his prognostication that Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton some 262 days ago. He asserted a confidence level of 97 percent in what he calls the Primary Model, he said. On Tuesday, the professor’s prophecy was proven right. Voter intent doesn’t matter, he said. Instead, the things that really matter are excitement among...

Professor Helmut Norpoth from Stony Brook University told Lou Dobbs on August 16th, 2016, that Donald Trump had an 87% chance of winning the 2016 Presidential election. Professor Norpoth is a political science professor at Long IslandÂ’s Stoney Brook University.His model has been correct since 1996 on predicting the popular vote. We reported that his 2016 forecast rested on a model that tracks cyclical movements in American presidential elections. It goes back to 1828, when popular voting became widespread and the two-party system took hold. Over nearly two centuries, American presidential elections have exhibited a distinct cycle. This is...

Stony Brook University Professor of Political Science Helmut Norpoth returned to Breitbart News Daily on Friday morning, two weeks after standing by his prediction that most polls were wrong and Donald Trump was highly likely to win the presidential race. Professor Norpoth was feeling rather good about that prediction on Friday. Norpoth also confirmed, in response to SiriusXM host Alex Marlow’s first question, that it is indeed awesome to have a name like “Helmut Norpoth” and to hear it repeated with such gratitude and appreciation... “I think the polls just totally misjudged the potential and the kind of support that...

It’s not just the presidency that’s at stake in the election — but also bragging rights for two prognosticators that are almost always right. This year, one of them is absolutely certain Donald Trump will be living in the White House, while the other is just as sure that Hillary Clinton can’t lose. Moody’s Analytics, which has picked the next president every year since 1980, says Clinton will make history as the first female chief executive, trouncing Trump with 332 electoral votes. That runs in sharp contrast to a model created by Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor at Stony...

GREAT interview with Helmut Norpoth by Bill Mitchell VIDEO

Hillary Clinton’s confidence could cost her the US presidency, according to a leading American political scientist who claims that Donald Trump is on course to win the US election in 12 days. The warning comes amid concerns from the Clinton campaign team that voter turnout will yet prove critical, despite many polls suggesting that the Democratic candidate is ahead of her Republican rival. The latest results from the poll considered to have most accurately predicted the results of the last three elections, by IBD/TIPP, suggest that Ms Clinton may have a lead of just 0.6 per cent over Mr Trump,...

Donald Trump may be behind in most polls but one veteran New York prognosticator still predicts he will win come Election Day. “I think he was the strongest candidate in the primaries and that he will prevail,” Helmut Norpoth, a political-science professor at SUNY Stony Brook, told The Post on Monday, even as the RealClearPolitics average shows the Republican candidate trailing Democrat Hillary Clinton by 6.1 percentage points. Norpoth developed a model that, applied retroactively in earlier races, would have correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1912 — with the exception of 2000, when predicted winner Al...

Saturday on Fox & Friends, Tucker Carlson sat down with a college professor with a remarkable record of predicting election outcomes. Professor Helmut Norpoth, from Stony Brook University in New York State, has correctly predicted the outcomes of the last five presidential elections. This year, he steadfastly believes Donald Trump will win the election. Norpoth said he uses two "models" to make his prediction: One is the "primary" model, where he compares a candidate's strength in their respective primaries. "The candidate who does better in his party's primary beats the other guy who does less well," Norpoth said. Looking at...

While most polls show Hillary Clinton comfortably ahead of Donald Trump, some pollsters are worried that not enough people are participating in these polls for there to be a representative sample size. Professor Helmut Norpoth, of Stony Brook University, joins RT America’s Lindsay France in the FishTank and says not enough people actually answer their phones when pollsters call, and also explains that his method for predicting presidential winners has worked in every election the past 100 years except for the 1960 election. He believes Trump has an 87 percent chance of winning the popular vote.

Professor Helmut Norpoth from Stony Brook University today told Lou Dobbs Donald Trump has an 87% chance of winning the November presidential election. Professor Norpoth is a political science professor at Long Island’s Stoney Brook University. His model has been correct since 1996 on predicting the popular vote. This 2016 forecast rests on a model that tracks cyclical movements in American presidential elections. It goes back to 1828, when popular voting became widespread and the two-party system took hold. Over nearly two centuries, American presidential elections have exhibited a distinct cycle. This is not the pattern associated with partisan realignments...

Helmut Norpoth "TRUMP will be POTUS : Ignore what Polls say"

What worries a bit is that the radio host asked Helmut that this Election is so strange that TRUMP could be an OUTLIAR & that Helmut could be totally wrong & the Professor agreed! Helmut Norpoth says you can't trust polls, Donald TRUMP will be POTUS VIDEO

A professor of political science at Stony Brook University has forecasted that Donald Trump has a minimum 97 percent chance of winning the general election as the Republican nominee. Professor Helmut Norpoth’s forecast presentation took place Monday evening in the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan, which was organized by the Stony Brook Alumni Association. Norpoth created a statistical model of presidential elections that uses a candidate’s performance in their party’s primary and patterns in the electoral cycle as predictors of the presidential vote in the general election. Donald Trump has a 97 percent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton and a...