The Man who Correctly Predicted President Trump’s 2016 Win Predicts President Trump has a 91% Chance of Being Reelected in 2020; His model has been correct since 1996

Gateway Pundit ^ | 07/02/2020 | Joe Hoft

[SeekAndFind]

Professor Helmut Norpoth from Stony Brook University told Lou Dobbs on August 16th, 2016, that Donald Trump had an 87% chance of winning the 2016 Presidential election.

Professor Norpoth is a political science professor at Long Island’s Stoney Brook University.

His model has been correct since 1996 on predicting the popular vote.

We reported that his 2016 forecast rested on a model that tracks cyclical movements in American presidential elections. It goes back to 1828, when popular voting became widespread and the two-party system took hold. Over nearly two centuries, American presidential elections have exhibited a distinct cycle. This is not the pattern associated with partisan realignments that may last 30 years or so, but a shorter cycle that relates to party control of the White House.

Norpoth made the prediction in March and says he still stands by his election prediction.

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Helmut joined Lou Dobbs again tonight to discuss the 2020 election. He gives President Trump a 91% chance of winning the 2020 Presidential election.

Helmut said that he never saw an individual win an election who placed 5th in New Hampshire (Biden). He also said that President Trump did very well in the primaries this year while Biden didn’t do anything until he won South Carolina.

It’s early and a lot can happen but we are in agreement with Dr. Norpoth.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: His model has been correct since 1996 on predicting the popular vote.

The article did not say whether or not he predicted Trump’s victory in the 2016 POPULAR vote ( because Trump DID NOT WIN IT ).

[dp0622]

They are saying if the employment numbers continue the way they are we will be back at 5% unemployment by the election

[coaster123]

The notion that Trump lost the popular vote is straight anti American BS.

[faithhopecharity]

right now, the D’s have self-destructed by their concerted efforts to destroy America

voters aren’t liking the D attacks one bit

(anything could change by November, but the D’s show no signs of reform so we are betting PDJT wins and wins big)

[pepsionice]

A lot changed since 2016, and the popular vote will edge up several million for Trump in 2020. The police and firemen vote (with families and retired members) won’t go to the Democrats. Plus you can probably move a million-plus black votes over to him as well.

[BeauBo]

“Norpoth made the prediction in March”

A lot has changed since then. I’m guessing that we are in for a continued atypical ride between now and the election.

The only constant is change.

[Husker24]

Dem governors wont allow that to happen.

[elcid1970]

“Nothing is written.”

[Sicon]

That’s all well and good, but does his model take mail-in ballots and massive vote fraud (as in, unprecedented dem vote fraud) into account?

Don’t think so.

[CurlyDave]

At this moment, the stock market is betting on a DJT victory. No other way to explain what is happening.

Now those guys may not always be the smart money, but when trillions of dollars are betting one way, only a fool would bet the other way.

If Joementia wins, look for an economic disaster.

* * * * * * * * * * * * *

Now as far as fraud and mail-in ballots go, the electoral college firewalls the fraud. If all the blue states allow mail in fraud all that means is a change in the popular vote.

Biden can get 150% of the popular vote in CA, NY, OR, HI, etc. and still not win. In fact, I hope he does get 150% because it might cause a change to secure, in person ballots.

[JamesP81]

This is nice, but only votes count, not models.

Get out and vote.

[TBP]

His model has been success for for a quarter of a century.

[KevinB]

Now that the thugs are threatening the suburbs, I have to assume that Trump is going to pick up more of the soccer moms as well. The one thing the professor’s model can’t account for is Dem cheating, though. That should be the real concern.

[KevinB]

If all the blue states allow mail in fraud all that means is a change in the popular vote.

Yes, but it's fraud in the swing states that will be the problem. Most, if not all, of the swing states are run by Dims and the people who control the states control the vote counting.

[Dr.Deth]

I miss politicians named Helmut.

Oh wait. No. That was Helmet.

[gundog]

WA, OR, and CA are doing their level best to suppress job growth. They are a lock for the Dems, anyway, but could the ripple effect hurt Trump in red or purple States? We shall see. I think Kate Brown’s tyrannical antics may hurt yhevAdems in Oregon. Maybe not enough, though.

[joma89]

Go out and vote, folks. Polls and predictions mean nothing. Only election day counts.

JoMa

[wintertime]

I am not convinced that Trump lost the popular vote.

[VRW Conspirator]

Keep America Great and out of the filthy Gropin’ hands of Biden.