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Developed by Professor Helmut Norpoth of Stoney Brook Univ., Stoney Brook, NY, the Primary Model (PM) algorithm correctly predicted (both retroactively and for elections occurring after the creation of the algorithm in 1996) the outcome of all U.S. Presidential elections from 1912-2016 except two extremely close elections, 1960 (Kennedy vs. Nixon) and 2000 (Bush vs.Gore). The PM algorithm has been correct in 25 out of 27 elections. That is an accuracy rate of 92.6%. The PM is not a poll, it uses real voting numbers based on the the number of votes candidates receive in selected early primaries, (currently the...

Most political prognosticators delay their final predictions for a presidential race until the morning of Election Day. In 2016, for example, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight and Nate Cohn of the New York Times released their final projections during the wee hours of November 8. One forecaster, however, routinely publishes his predictions six months in advance. Professor Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University in New York issued his last word on the Trump–Clinton contest 246 days before the voters went to the polls. In March 2016, Norpoth confidently predicted that Donald Trump would be elected president. He not only contradicted Silver,...

Caution: The massive disruptions caused by the Coronavirus outbreak may prompt me to revise the forecast, especially if there is a crack in Trump support. Primaries Predict Election Winner -- Cycle Also Favors GOP — Forecast Model Batting 5 for 6 (since 1996) The Primary Model gives President Trump a 91% chance of winning a possible match-up with Democrat Joe Biden in November, based on primary performance in New Hampshire and South Carolina, plus the first-term electoral benefit. Trump would get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176. In a possible match-up with Bernie Sanders in November, Trump’s chance of winning would...

“Indeed, strong enthusiasm for Biden among his supporters – at just 24% – is the lowest on record for a Democratic presidential candidate in 20 years of ABC/Post polls. More than twice as many of Trump’s supporters are highly enthusiastic about supporting him, 53%.” Biden has only bare majority (51%) support among Democrats, and a 24% enthusiasm gap in a match up against Trump. From the ABC News poll write-up: Former Vice President Joe Biden has emerged as Democrats’ top choice for the presidential nomination in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, but with only bare majority support within his...

The public perception problems for Joe Biden are growing. He’s not all there, as is obvious from his disastrous livestreams and TV interviews, and has all but disappeared during the Wuhan coronavirus crisis. A just-released ABC News / Washington Post poll reveals another problem, one that comes as no surprise: Democrats are not enthsiastic about Biden, even as he racks up delegates and appears headed to the nomination. Biden has only bare majority (51%) support among Democrats, and a 24% enthusiasm gap in a match up against Trump.

Despite recent polls that identify Joe Biden as the heavy favorite in 2020, a political science professor is still standing by his prediction model that shows President Trump having a "91 percent" chance of winning in November. Mediaite reported on Wednesday that Stony Brook Professor Helmut Norpoth is doubling down on his "Primary Model,” which has correctly predicted five out of the past six elections since 1996 and every single election but two in the past 108 years. “The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said. "This model gets it right for 25...

President Trump is betting big on the primaries. With no serious challengers for the Republican Party nomination and high approval numbers among the GOP’s rank and file, Trump could have cruised through the spring campaign season like most incumbent presidents do. Instead, he traveled to 18 states for campaign rallies and spent more than $155 million to rack up high primary-vote totals for a nomination he had no chance of losing. “I don’t remember any uncontested primary campaign for a sitting president like this,” Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth told The Post. “People don’t normally turn out in large...

A political science professor who predicted President Trump's win in 2016 is forecasting another victory. In an interview on "The Ingraham Angle." Stony Brook University's Helmut Norpoth stated Friday that he believes the key to another victory for the president lies in the examination of primary races. "OK, the key to the November election is the primaries. And, the only primaries [are] already giving us a lot of information," he explained.

Helmut Norpoth "TRUMP will be POTUS : Ignore what Polls say"

What worries a bit is that the radio host asked Helmut that this Election is so strange that TRUMP could be an OUTLIAR & that Helmut could be totally wrong & the Professor agreed! Helmut Norpoth says you can't trust polls, Donald TRUMP will be POTUS VIDEO

A professor of political science at Stony Brook University has forecasted that Donald Trump has a minimum 97 percent chance of winning the general election as the Republican nominee. Professor Helmut Norpoth’s forecast presentation took place Monday evening in the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan, which was organized by the Stony Brook Alumni Association. Norpoth created a statistical model of presidential elections that uses a candidate’s performance in their party’s primary and patterns in the electoral cycle as predictors of the presidential vote in the general election. Donald Trump has a 97 percent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton and a...

If Donald Trump wins the Republican presidential primary, he is almost a shoo-in to win the presidency this November, a Stony Brook University professor predicts. Professor Helmut Norpoth's statistical model, which looks at a candidate's performance in their party's presidential primary and factors in the broader electoral cycle, shows that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election, reported Stony Brook's newspaper The Statesman. His odds rise to 99 percent against Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. The professor of political science presented his 2016 forecast at the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan on Monday. "Trump...

President Donald Trump is almost certain to win reelection in 2020, according to a political science professor whose “Primary Model” has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996. “The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook Professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite Tuesday. He noted that his model, which he introduced in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome of all but two presidential elections in the last 108 years: “This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.” The exceptions include John F....

President Donald Trump has a 91 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996. “The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday. Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced. The model calculates the winning candidate based on early presidential nominating contests and placing an...

Jul 02, 202007:49 Model projects 91% chance Trump will get re-elected Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth says the battleground state polls in 2016 were 'way off' and that his model has correctly predicted 24 out of 26 of the past presidential elections.

Professor Helmut Norpoth from Stony Brook University told Lou Dobbs on August 16th, 2016, that Donald Trump had an 87% chance of winning the 2016 Presidential election. Professor Norpoth is a political science professor at Long IslandÂ’s Stoney Brook University.His model has been correct since 1996 on predicting the popular vote. We reported that his 2016 forecast rested on a model that tracks cyclical movements in American presidential elections. It goes back to 1828, when popular voting became widespread and the two-party system took hold. Over nearly two centuries, American presidential elections have exhibited a distinct cycle. This is...

Stony Brook University Professor of Political Science Helmut Norpoth returned to Breitbart News Daily on Friday morning, two weeks after standing by his prediction that most polls were wrong and Donald Trump was highly likely to win the presidential race. Professor Norpoth was feeling rather good about that prediction on Friday. Norpoth also confirmed, in response to SiriusXM host Alex Marlow’s first question, that it is indeed awesome to have a name like “Helmut Norpoth” and to hear it repeated with such gratitude and appreciation... “I think the polls just totally misjudged the potential and the kind of support that...

Once-obscure political science professor Helmut Norpoth is now basking in the sweet glow of success — and newfound fame — after confidently predicting way back in February that Donald Trump was virtually guaranteed to win the 2016 presidential election. Norpoth, a faculty member at Stony Brook University, announced his prognostication that Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton some 262 days ago. He asserted a confidence level of 97 percent in what he calls the Primary Model, he said. On Tuesday, the professor’s prophecy was proven right. Voter intent doesn’t matter, he said. Instead, the things that really matter are excitement among...

It’s not just the presidency that’s at stake in the election — but also bragging rights for two prognosticators that are almost always right. This year, one of them is absolutely certain Donald Trump will be living in the White House, while the other is just as sure that Hillary Clinton can’t lose. Moody’s Analytics, which has picked the next president every year since 1980, says Clinton will make history as the first female chief executive, trouncing Trump with 332 electoral votes. That runs in sharp contrast to a model created by Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor at Stony...

GREAT interview with Helmut Norpoth by Bill Mitchell VIDEO