Political science professor forecasts Trump as general election winner

sbstatesman.com ^ | FEBRUARY 23, 2016 | CHRISTOPHER CAMERON /

[dennisw]

A professor of political science at Stony Brook University has forecasted that Donald Trump has a minimum 97 percent chance of winning the general election as the Republican nominee.

Professor Helmut Norpoth’s forecast presentation took place Monday evening in the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan, which was organized by the Stony Brook Alumni Association.

Norpoth created a statistical model of presidential elections that uses a candidate’s performance in their party’s primary and patterns in the electoral cycle as predictors of the presidential vote in the general election.

Donald Trump has a 97 percent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of defeating Bernie Sanders in the general election, according to Norpoth’s formula.

“The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,” Norpoth said, “if he’s a nominee of the [Republican] party.”

Norpoth’s primary model works for every presidential election since 1912, with the notable exception of the 1960 election. These results give the model an accuracy of 96.1 percent.

Norpoth began the presentation with an introduction of the potential matchups in the general election, including a hypothetical Sanders vs. Trump general election.

“When I started out with this kind of display a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke.” Norpoth said referring to Trump and Sanders, as many alumni in the audience laughed. “Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore.”

As the presentation continued, laughter turned to silence as Norpoth forecasted a 61 percent chance of a Republican win in the general election.

This forecast was made using the electoral cycle model, which studies a pattern of voting in the presidential election that makes it less likely for an incumbent party to hold the presidency after two terms in office. The model does not assume who would be the party nominees or the conditions of the country at the time.

“You think ‘This is crazy. How can anything come up with something like that?’ ” Norpoth said “But that’s exactly the kind of equation I used to predict Bill Clinton winning in ‘96, that I used to predict that George Bush would win in 2004, and, as you remember four years ago, that Obama would win in 2012.”

Norpoth then added data from the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries to narrow down the forecast to specific candidates. As he brought up the first slide with matchup results, the silence was broken by muttering from the audience.

“Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent [of the popular vote]. This is almost too much to believe.” Norpoth said, with a few members of the audience laughing nervously. “The probability of that [outcome] is almost complete certainty, 97 percent. It’s almost ‘Take it to the bank.’ ”

The primary model predicts a Trump victory with such certainty due to Trump’s relatively high success in the Republican primaries, Norpoth said. Clinton, in comparison, is in an essential tie with Sanders in the Democratic primaries. As a result, Sanders would also lose to Trump in a similar landslide if Sanders were to be the Democratic nominee, Norpoth said.

In contrast, Norpoth forecasted that a hypothetical presidential race with Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio on the Republican ticket would be a much closer race. The results showed Clinton with a 55 percent chance of winning the race against Cruz or Rubio with a 0.3 percent lead in the popular vote.

Norpoth’s model showed Sanders losing against Rubio or Cruz with a 0.6 percent gap in the popular vote, giving a Rubio or Cruz ticket a 60 percent chance of winning against the Vermont senator.

Norpoth added that while the non-Trump Republican ticket would be much more unlikely to win the general election due to differences in the popular vote and the electoral college vote, there is almost no chance that Trump would lose the electoral college vote with his forecasted lead in the popular vote.

“If you win by 54 percent [of the popular vote], you have a big majority in the electoral college,” Norpoth said. “Nobody who has ever gotten 54 percent has lost.”

[StAnDeliver]

It’s an interesting model, to be sure.

[dennisw]

Key to his prediction is that after a two term Presidency the voters are going to switch to the other party. No matter what, they are are going to sick and tired of party A being in power for 8 years so they will vote for party B and its Presidential candidate

[VRW Conspirator]

I believe it. Unless the GOPe screws up the convention. And if they do, I would rather vote for a ham & cheese sandwich.

Of course, a ham & cheese sandwich might not do well with the Kosher voters

[entropy12]

Looks like the vast American middle class is finally waking up. Hillary is already attacking ONLY Trump. That is all I need to know.

[Beautiful_Gracious_Skies]

It’s answer is all in the results that are spinning defeats as wins and marginal wins as victories.

This charade of an primary election is a joke.The race is such a lopsided win for Trump that it’s ludicrous to suggest otherwise.

Team Cruz is efficient in ferreting out victories in a few caucus states known for their oddball and malleable vote counting methods.
Cruz won:
Virgin Islands by 30 votes
Wyoming by 480 votes
Alaska by 600 votes
Maine by 2,500.

Here are the rounded total votes Cruz won in his 8/9 winning states.

Virgin Isl 200 people
Wyoming 620 people
Alaska 8,400
Maine 8,500
Kansas 35,000
Iowa 52,000
Utah 122,00
Okie 158,000

Wow, Ted won eight states totaling 385,000 votes.

If it wasn’t for his Texas win 1,239,393, he’d have nothing but a pile of beans.

This is clearly NOT an appealing candidate in so many ways.
He’s a candidate guaranteed to lose a national election in a landslide.

[ASA Vet]

If it wasn’t for his Texas win 1,239,393

Which leads to the question,

Will Texans remember in 2018 that their sitting Senator omitted mentioning in 2012 that he was Canadian?

[erlayman]

Is the model even publicly available ? The results were to have been updated after Super Tuesday, I don’t even understand the point in presenting data that is now over a month out of date.

[JPJones]

“Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent [of the popular vote].”

That’s all?

I would say more like 65 to 35.

[Beautiful_Gracious_Skies]

That’s a very poor showing from Texas for a Texas Senator.

El Cubano de Canada has a lot of baggage and is unelectable.

[Pining_4_TX]

I’ve seen the professor on Fox Business. He’s so nerdy, he’s cool.

[BobL]

““Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent [of the popular vote]. This is almost too much to believe.” Norpoth said, with a few members of the audience laughing nervously. “The probability of that [outcome] is almost complete certainty, 97 percent. It’s almost ‘Take it to the bank.’

The SAME PEOPLE were laughing when SOME OF US promised that Trump would remain in the race throughout last year, and that Trump would actually start WINNING Primaries.

So I’d say it’s fair to question the political acumen of those who are ‘laughing’ today.

[smoothsailing]

A ham and cheese sandwich would have a 97.3% probability of beating Hillary Clinton, if it ran as a Republican.

[Undecided 2012]

So let’s see, I showed up and voted McCain and Romney and now you want me to do Trump. No thanks

[mrsmith]

A reddit Q&A by the professor:
https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/498fap/i_am_professor_helmut_norpoth_and_i_published_a/

Fleshes out his method some.

[Albion Wilde]

Make America Great Again

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Selected Trump articles on FR, from 6:30 PM yesterday to 5:30 PM EST today, 3/27/16:
Political science professor forecasts Trump as general election winner (Helmut Norpoth, StonyBrookU)
Kasich: Trump and Cruz ‘Should Consolidate Behind Me’ –Breitbart
The Post constitutional election is here –Diana West
World leaders will be talking (behind scenes) about Trump –CNN (video)
History of Brokered Conventions Won't Make GOP Too Optimistic –Lauren Holter
Democrats to make Trump key villain in torching entire Republican Party –BizInsider
Donald Trump: 'I Don't Think America Is a Safe Place for Americans' –ABC
Trump: NATO Obsolete, Expensive, "Doesn't Have Right Countries in It for Terrorism" –RCP
Trump leads in California primary race but threatens a GOP fracture –LA Times
Cruz Closing in on Trump in Crucial State (36-35% in CA) –BizInsider
Taliban says it targeted Christians on Easter Sunday, killing 65 –LA Times
Cruz scandal leaked to National Enquirer by Rubio "ally," not Trump –Salon
Experts: Ted Cruz Appears Deceptive in His Response to Sex Scandal –LawNewz
The Truth about the Ted Cruz Sex Scandal –Stefan Molyneux (video)
Trump on Wife Battle: Cruz Started It, He Knew about the Picture –Breitbart
Accusations fly between Trump and Cruz on Sunday shows –WaPo
NRA to Anti-Gun ‘Elites’: ‘Gun Owners Are a Lot Smarter than You’ll Ever Be’ –CNSNews
Mexico Adds Trump to Easter Tradition, Sets Him on Fire –Breitbart
Trump says allies must start paying for ‘American protection’ –NYPost
California May Ultimately Decide Who the GOP Nominee Is, but One Candidate Has an Advantage –IndependentJournal
Trump's plan to stop a contested Republican convention –CNBC
AZ restaurant owner faces backlash after appearing onstage with Trump –CNN
Turnout, terror, and tactics favor Trump against Clinton –Boston Globe
LIVE THREAD: Trump Town Hall, Tues 3/29 Janesville, WI at Holiday Inn Express 4pm CST (bookmark for Tuesday)
How to Save Our Country from Our Government –DarrelF (vanity)
Donald Trump's foreign policy -the brief summary –Donald Trump
The Primary of the Unbound Delegates –Scott Rasmussen
Liz Mair’s Anti-Trump Super PAC Has Same Mailing Address as Carly Fiorina’s Campaign –Patrick Howley
Trump details 'America first' foreign policy views to NYT –AFP
Free Republic 2016 Caucus Open Discussion Thread LXVIII –
Free Republic Caucus 2016 03/27 –
NY's new GOP delegate rules could help derail Donald Trump –Post-Std
Republicans losing faith in election process [Gallup poll] –AtlantaJourCons
Industry Insiders: Mark Levin’s ratings, popularity, credibility tank in “anti Trump” jihad. –Prntly
Trump would consider letting Japan, South Korea build nuclear arsenals –The Hill
In Trump’s Worldview, America Comes First, Everybody Else Pays –NYT
Why so many voters are drawn to Donald Trump –LA Times
Trump Would Consider Halting U.S. Oil Purchases from Saudis –OANN

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

Hillary is going to win.

[Georgia Girl 2]

Well of course he will win the general election. Its the GOPe I’m worried about.

[Balding_Eagle]

I was all in back in 2011, and then Trump decided not to run.

I was really disappointed.

This time, once he doubled down on The Wall, I was all in again.

[Balding_Eagle]

A ham and cheese sandwich would have a 97.3% probability of beating Hillary Clinton,

Yet Cruz has only a 50% chance.