Stony Brook professor: If Donald Trump gets Republican nomination, he'll win presidency

Newsday ^ | February 27, 2016 | Edward B. Colby

[2ndDivisionVet]

If Donald Trump wins the Republican presidential primary, he is almost a shoo-in to win the presidency this November, a Stony Brook University professor predicts.

Professor Helmut Norpoth's statistical model, which looks at a candidate's performance in their party's presidential primary and factors in the broader electoral cycle, shows that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election, reported Stony Brook's newspaper The Statesman. His odds rise to 99 percent against Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.

The professor of political science presented his 2016 forecast at the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan on Monday.

"Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent. This is almost too much to believe," Norpoth said as he showed his forecast for that potential matchup, using data from the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries. "The probability of that [outcome] is almost complete certainty, 97 percent. It's almost 'Take it to the bank.'"

The model's high confidence in a Trump win is due to his relatively high success so far, Norporth said. The model also factors in the electoral cycle, which makes it difficult for a party to hold the White House three terms in a row, as the Democrats are trying to do in 2016....

[Lurker]

Trump is going to annihilate Hillary. Which is why she will not be the Dem nominee.

L

[Grampa Dave]

Political science professor forecasts Trump as general election winner
The Statesman | February 23, 2016 | Christopher Cameron

A professor of political science at Stony Brook University has forecasted that Donald Trump has a minimum 97 percent chance of winning the general election as the Republican nominee.

Professor Helmut Norpoth’s forecast presentation took place Monday evening in the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan, which was organized by the Stony Brook Alumni Association.

Norpoth created a statistical model of presidential elections that uses a candidate’s performance in their party’s primary and patterns in the electoral cycle as predictors of the presidential vote in the general election.

Donald Trump has a 97 percent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of defeating Bernie Sanders in the general election, according to Norpoth’s formula.

The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president, Norpoth said, if he’s a nominee of the [Republican] party.

Norpoth’s primary model works for every presidential election since 1912, with the notable exception of the 1960 election. These results give the model an accuracy of 96.1 percent.

Complete story source:

https://www.sbstatesman.com/2016/02/23/political-science-professor-forecasts-trump-as-general-election-winner/

[bigbob]

I like those odds!

But suppose two black swan events occur: #1, The GOPe finds a procedural trick or something to steal the nomination away from Trump and nominates Jeb! #2, Hillary is indicted and the DNC prevails on one of their stalwarts to run in her place...

“BUSH-GORE 2016”

(Yes, shame on me!)

[faucetman]

Quick, tell Ted Cruz about this so he can stop lying on Fox News Sunday and everywhere else he opens his mouth and FALSELY claims that if Trump is the nominee Hillary will be the next president.

[zipper]

Trump is going to annihilate Hillary. Which is why she will not be the Dem nominee.

I've been saying that for a while now. But where are the indictments? And who will be the Dim nominee? Romney (only half kidding)?

[Parley Baer]

“Trump is going to annihilate Hillary. Which is why she will not be the Dem nominee.”

I have no doubt. Trump will go back through Hillary’s record page by page and bring it all back to the for front. It will be a fun thing to watch.

[bigbob]

Well it’s not like they have a very deep bench...

I was joking about Algore running, he’s too fat...I mean to busy with his climate scam bidness and all.

Biden or Kerry. That’s about it before they delve down to the true freshman level like Mark O’Malley, Charlie Crist of Fauxohauntas.

[JudyinCanada]

I think Elizabeth Warren is warming up in the bullpen (and I do mean BULL).

They will see Biden/Warren or Warren/Biden as unstoppable.

[bray]

This guy has zero chance of getting on Fox.

Pray America wakes

[Washi]

Oh. Stony brook.

We should be impressed.

As damaged as the unidicted felon, Clinton is, she'll destroy Trump in the general. She may be a c***, but he's a clown.

[eyedigress]

She isn’t going to destroy anybody. 1/3 of the Dem electorate showed up in SC.

[Hoodat]

She isn’t going to destroy anybody. 1/3 of the Dem electorate showed up in SC.

The other two-thirds voted a week earlier. We've been had.

[Windflier]

If the GOP steals the nomination, as you’re suggesting, there will revolution, and not just the political kind.

An act such as that, would be about the strongest signal the political class could send, that our government is no more, and that it has been replaced by an illegitimate cabal.

[Washi]

1/3 of the Dem electorate showed up in SC.

60% of EVERYONE dislikes Trump.

That's 6/10.

That's 3/5.

60% Hillary vs 40% Trump is a BLOWOUT.

You just hang on to your delusions, though.

[zipper]

Well it’s not like they have a very deep bench...

I was joking about Algore running, he’s too fat...I mean to busy with his climate scam bidness and all.

Biden or Kerry. That’s about it before they delve down to the true freshman level like Mark O’Malley, Charlie Crist of Fauxohauntas.

Yes, I think Al "crazed sex poodle" Gore has kept too low a profile to be a contender. I never hear anything about him anymore.

They have the additional HUGE problem of low voter turnout -- about 1/3 lower than the 2008 election, in some of these primaries. And our turnout is breaking records (hat tip: Trump).

I am enjoying this election cycle.

[eyedigress]

Dems had 367,000 show up vs 737,000 GOP.

You might want to fix that adding machine of yours.

[eyedigress]

Not at all.

The press won’t flash the numbers but I just did.

[Albion Wilde]

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Selected Trump articles on FR, with links, from 3:00 PM to 11:59 PM EST, 2/28/16:
Stony Brook professor: If Donald Trump gets Republican nomination, he'll win presidency
Free Republic Caucus 2016 02/29
Kasich predicts Trump will sweep Super Tuesday [CNN]
Bernie and Trump look like saviours to voters who feel left out of the American Dream [UK - Guardian]
Trump, the Greatest Threat to the Establishment since JFK [US Defense Watch]
Donald Trump — Can America Get Behind His Presidential Bid?
Super Tuesday poll... Trump leads in Tennessee, Georgia; Cruz ahead in Texas
Rubio’s Gang of 8 Bill Granted Amnesty to Illegals Guilty of “Sex Offenses” [Gateway Pundit]
Why I'll Gladly Vote for Trump in November, if it Comes to It [Briefing Room]
Steve Forbes: Trump Will Lure Votes From Democrats
Trump Jr. Floats Possibility Of Chris Christie As Attorney General [video]
The Disgraceful New York Times
Donald J. Trump Endorsed by Benghazi Heroes Mark Geist and John Tiegen
A $10 Spot Challenge... FReepers...
3 in 4 Republican voters now expect Trump to be the nominee (YouGov: Trump 44, Cruz 21, Rubio 17 [YouGov]
Gawker Twitterbot fed Donald Trump a Mussolini quote [CBS]
Koch brothers’ D.C. guru joins Marco Rubio team
Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions Endorses Trump: "It Is Time to Make America Great Again" [RCP]
In major blow to Ted Cruz, Sen. Jeff Sessions of Alabama endorses Donald Trump for GOP nomination [WaPo]
Donald J. Trump Endorsed by Senator Jeff Sessions [Trump campaign web site]
Why Trump Is Winning [Scott Rasmussen]
Claim: GOP's Secret Plan to Block Trump, Even by Electing Hillary [Jerome Corsi]
2016 Texas Republican Presidential Primary [Cruz 42, Trump 31, Rubio 19] [RCP]
Displaced Disney Workers: Shame On You Rubio; We Stand With Trump
Donald Trump Invites ICE Officer Chris Crane, Fired Disney Workers, to Join Rally
Conservative Radio: Limbaugh, Ingraham, Hannity and Levin Part of Gang-of-Eight “Gaslighting” [Sundance]
"Trump Must Be Stopped" Plead 'The Economist' And CFR As Financial Establishment Panics
Trump Tuesday [F.R. Newbrough]
Time for Cruz to Drop Out for the Good of The Country
Trump Senior Policy Adviser Stephen Miller: The Moment Ted Cruz Threw in with the Globalists
Rubio: "Hounds of hell will descend" if Trump wins

[Chad_the_Impaler]

If it looks like Hillary is going to lose, they can Torch her and bring in Biden.