LS, I hope you can forgive my improper setup. I literally did this by hand and using FR preview and missed a few things. A label here, a number there, but over-all, I think the general gist of a R+10 (because I missed one R win) seems to be a viable possiblilty.
I plan on re-doing it in a proper table format with all the names and data double and triple checked tonight.
I’m glad you did this. I’d like to see more on the House, but like you say, it’s a lot more work.
So, I hope this works out well for you. I think it’s a great start. I also hope you’re right about a 60 vote Senate. Great start.
I think R+10 is too optimistic.
We will lose 3 seats in PA for sure due to redistricting, probably 1-2 in NJ. Comstock is underwater in VA. Trott and possibly one other are in trouble in MI. So far, McSally’s house seat here in AZ is a loss. Figure at least one loss in CA. That’s 10. Rod Blum was considered dead, but has made a comeback, still a little behind. Throw in FL27 OR 26, and you’re at 12, and just for margin, make it 15.
Now subtract two MN seats we’ll flip=13, and we probably will get AZ1 (-12).
So that’s where I am right now. Find me 12 other flips out there for us. I don’t see it.
So we should hold the house by 10-12 seats minimum, maybe if all the dominoes fall right, only 8.