2018 Midterm Predictions

Self | 10/16/2018 | Paul Rivers

[spacewarp]

I'm looking at the polling and the predictions are strange. It appears that the polling, as usual, is a mess.

Name	Prediction	Result	Republican count	Democrat count	Independent count
McSally	Should easily beat traitor Sinnema.	Retain	43	23	0
Nelson	Will lose	Turnover	44	23	0
Donnely	Is most likely going to lose. It’s very tight, and probable turnover.	Turnover	45	23	0
Smith	Is in usually safe MN. Given her opponent, there’s a good chance she’s not as safe. This is a “Let’s see how election night turns out” seat.	Retain	45	24	0
McCaskill	Going down	Turnover	46	24	0
Hyde-Smith	Will retain	Retain	47	24	0
Tester	Will lose by double digits	Turnover	48	24	0
Heitkamp	Will lose by possibly double digits	Turnover	49	24	0
Menendez	Is doing everything he can to try to lose this one. Unfortunately, I just don’t think there’s enough to overcome the fraud in Jersey.	Retain	49	25	0
Heller	Will win. Only question left is margin.	Retain	50	25	0
Brown	Nailbiter, but I think this one goes R.	Turnover	51	25	0
Blackburn	Will slaughter this one	Retain	52	25	0
Cruz	Will prove to be the saviour of the night, as they poured over 60 million to waste on a candidate that will lose by at least 14.	Turnover	53	25	0
Baldwin	Going to call surprise on this one.	Turnover	54	25	0
Manchin	Will no longer be in politics after this election. He’s going to go down by at least 6.	Turnover	55	25	0
Feinstein	Retains. Unfortunately. There’s a slight chance, but only slight.	Retain	55	26	0
Murphy	Looks like he's going to get a scare. Don't think he's going to lose, but we'll see.	Retain	55	27	0
Carper	Retains.	Retain	55	28	0
Hirono	I wish it would be possible for someone to knock this arrogant person off her perch. Don't think so.	Retain	55	29	0
Warren	Made a critical blunder. We'll see if it will affect her. Right now, she holds.	Retain	55	30	0
Carden	Should be very tight, but probably retains.	Retain	55	31	0
King	Nothing showing any momentum to knock him out.	Retain	56	31	1
Stabenow	She has a strong opponent, and may lose. If Trump spends more time, should push her out.	Turnover	56	31	1
Klobuchar	We can only hope that the citizens wake up and vote her out.	Retain	56	32	1
Wicker	Should be fine	Retain	57	32	1
Fischer	Should be fine	Retain	58	32	1
Heinrich	Should retain	Retain	58	33	1
Gillibrand	Should retain	Retain	58	34	1
Whitehouse	Should retain	Retain	58	35	1
Hatch	Should retain	Retain	59	35	1
Kaine	Should retain	Retain	59	36	1
Cantwell	Should retain	Retain	59	37	1
Sanders	Should retain	Retain	59	37	2
Barrasso	Should retain	Retain	60	37	2
			Totals	Totals	Totals
			+9	-9	0

[DarthDoug]

i think there is an error. Your numbers didn’t change on the Stabnow row from previous.

[RoseofTexas]

Who knows, only God knows how all this will finally pan out! GOTV AND 🙏🏻 like your life depends on it!!

[spacewarp]

I see that I missed one on the count. Uggh.

[spacewarp]

I’ve seen 3 highly oversampled polls that put it within the margin of error in the last few weeks.

[spacewarp]

I did it by hand. I tried my best to look at it carefully. Missed some.

[DoodleDawg]

This may throw a wrench in some of your races: Democrats Pounce On Mitch McConnell For Blaming Debt On Social Security, Medicare

Accurate, but the timing is unfortunate.

[spacewarp]

And they also had Clinton winning most EV’s and we had the oversampled polling.

I’m going to try to do this differently tonight and see if it works easier. I know what I meant with the posts, just got the math off on one and the label off on one. So, I’ll try to do something a bit different tonight.

[xzins]

Comments?

[jmclemore]

They could lose 10 seats and they would still claim victory if they flip a Republican in a blue district.

They will claim the blue Wave was real, but Republicans cheated and stole the midterms.

At this point they still think that “hearings” and “investigations” will delay conservative progress.

2016-2018, how’s that worked out so far.....

They (left-wing cratzies) still don’t get that Trump gives Republicans what few Republicans presidents have, results!.

They still don’t get the anti establishment nature of the movement. They have pushed us so far left that, center left voters, are closer to Republicans than Democrats.

They still don’t get that identity politics promises everyone can have power and control. At some point each group starts fighting to gain control of the movement and conquer the reigns of power. They (left-wing cratzies) had set their own up for tyranny with in.

We have already been labelled enemies of the liberal/progressive state by the Democratic party. If they regain control, laws will be created to make conservatism a hate crime.

If they don’t take back control in November, be prepared to see those snow flake become flamming balls of methane.....

[Godzilla]

feinswine is running against another democrap. no pubbies on ticket, so automatic democrap retain.

[janipa]

That would be great. I really hope that Wis goes all red.

[spacewarp]

LS, I hope you can forgive my improper setup. I literally did this by hand and using FR preview and missed a few things. A label here, a number there, but over-all, I think the general gist of a R+10 (because I missed one R win) seems to be a viable possiblilty.

I plan on re-doing it in a proper table format with all the names and data double and triple checked tonight.

[laplata]

I am being realistic. I’ll add it to what you say.

[xzins]

I’m glad you did this. I’d like to see more on the House, but like you say, it’s a lot more work.

So, I hope this works out well for you. I think it’s a great start. I also hope you’re right about a 60 vote Senate. Great start.

[RoseofTexas]

Who knows, only God knows how all this will finally pan out! GOTV AND 🙏🏻 like your life depends on it!!

[BluegrassCardinal]

Pretty good take, but you might be too generous on some of the races.

My take on some of the key races:

TN: Blackburn by double digits.
TX: Cruz breaking away late, low double digit win.
ND: Cramer by 10-11.
Fla: Scott by 2-3.
AZ: McSally by 5.
NV: Heller in a close one, probably 2-3
MT: Not seen latest polling data. For some reason, I think Tester hangs on by a thread.
IN: Close, but Braun wins late.
MO: Honestly no clue. Hawley seems set up to win, but never count out crooked Claire. Toss-up.
WV: Manchin wins a close one by 2 or less
MI: Stabenow by 6-7. One of the biggest gripes I have is that DJT did not aggressively campaign in Michigan for James. Too little too late will probably cost us a seat.
PA: No chance. 10 or more.
OH: Not seeing anyone unseat Sherrod Brown, probably a 10+ win for Brown.

[LS]

I think R+10 is too optimistic.

We will lose 3 seats in PA for sure due to redistricting, probably 1-2 in NJ. Comstock is underwater in VA. Trott and possibly one other are in trouble in MI. So far, McSally’s house seat here in AZ is a loss. Figure at least one loss in CA. That’s 10. Rod Blum was considered dead, but has made a comeback, still a little behind. Throw in FL27 OR 26, and you’re at 12, and just for margin, make it 15.

Now subtract two MN seats we’ll flip=13, and we probably will get AZ1 (-12).

So that’s where I am right now. Find me 12 other flips out there for us. I don’t see it.

So we should hold the house by 10-12 seats minimum, maybe if all the dominoes fall right, only 8.

[MrChips]

Retain the House by +15 or +20. You must be dreaming! I’d love it, but I think we’ll retain the House by +2 or +3.

[Political Junkie Too]

Isn't that where Count Rushmore is?

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

His R+10 was a Senate prediction, not House.

-PJ