Posted on 02/28/2024 8:37:54 PM PST by SeekAndFind
The silly season is well and truly underway. At this point, in late February, it looks like former President Donald Trump has the Republican nomination sewn up, barring some catastrophe; and the Democrats, while fretting some about Joe Biden's visible decline, don't seem to be making any move to dump him - more on that after we take a look at some 2024 swing-state polls. Poll results are taken from the RealClearPolling compilation, while the 2020 results are from CNN's 2020 recap.
Also: In this analysis, since I'm looking at trends more than the actual results, I'm not getting into trying to figure out how any electoral shenanigans (and there were doubtless plenty) may have affected the 2020 race; I'm going on the final, certified results, for better or for worse.
Just to get an idea where things are now, on this penultimate day of February, let's look at some polls in swing states Joe Biden won in 2020.
Wisconsin: In 2020, Joe Biden won this state narrowly, by about 20,000 votes; 49.4% of the vote to Trump's 48.8%. A poll by The Hill/Emerson has Trump leading Biden by three points in a one-on-one match, with Trump's lead gaining a point when he is matched against Biden, RFK Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West.
Michigan: In 2020, Joe Biden won this state by a wider margin, by roughly 150,000 votes; 50.6% of the vote to Trump's 47.8%. In a poll, again by The Hill/Emerson, Trump leads by two points in a one-on-one, while again gaining a point when matched against the larger leftist field.
Arizona: In 2020, Joe Biden pulled out a squeaker of a win in this normally red state, winning by roughly 11,000 votes, 49.4% of the vote to Trump's 49%. The Hill/Emerson has Trump leading Biden by three points, and against the larger field by six points.
Georgia: In 2020, Trump lost Georgia to Joe Biden by roughly 12,000 votes, with Biden taking 49.5% of the vote to Trump's 49.2%. The Hill/Emerson now has Trump leading Biden in Georgia by six points.
If Democrats didn't have reason to be nervous a few months ago, they sure as heck do now.
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In 2020, after all the dust settled, the presidential election was certified with Joe Biden taking 306 Electoral College votes to Donald Trump's 232. If we plug in the 2020 map and move only the swing states mentioned above into the Trump column, with all other states remaining the same as in 2020, we come up with a narrow GOP win, with presumptive nominee Donald Trump taking 269 Electoral College votes to Joe BIden's 253. That's hardly a blowout; that's a nail-biter, and may or may not prove to be outside the margin of fraud. If Trump could take those states and also flip, say, Nevada and Pennsylvania -- not impossible, as the same The Hill/Emerson poll puts Trump six points ahead in Nevada and two points ahead in Pennsylvania -- that would give him a more comfortable 295-227 win.
But if Joe Biden holds Michigan and Wisconsin -- again, not impossible -- that hands the Democrat a 279-259 win. Trump, in the current polling, has a narrow lead in those two states, but while leads like that can evaporate overnight, at this point, it sure looks like the momentum is going Trump's way for now.
While this kind of analysis and speculation is fun, at this stage of the game it's only that - speculation. It's a long, long way to Tipperary, folks, and a lot can happen between now and November. But if I were a Democrat and looking to keep the White House in Democrat hands, I'd be sweating Joe Biden's advancing decrepitude - and trying like hell to find a Democrat candidate to run who isn't a cackling imbecile, a hair-jelled train wreck, or a daffy old Bolshevik who dresses like a flood victim.
Victor Davis Hanson Recently said this election would be the ugliest in American history and implied perhaps the most violent if the Rats lose
When your opponent can massively cheat to win, you have to be able to cheat as well or better. Since Trump isn’t going to cheat he may well not win.
I think either way.
Isn’t it a amazing how in 2020 Biden squeaked out narrow victories in the key swing states that he needed to win after they stopped counting votes? Amazing 🤩
Poor dude cant add.
1) first 269 is a tie.
2) Az and Ga gives him 260, Any one of Wisconsin -10, MI 16 or PA-20 gives him the 10 votes to win. He won all 3 last time giving him an extra 36 EV or 306.
Dude should at least have a basic understanding of the numbers if you are going to write about the subject.
yeah, let’s get the base even more complacent...
The Democrats have a massive cash advantage which appears to be growing, as well as the press on their side.
Polling data is a flashpoint in time...which is only good for the time the poll was taken, even assuming it is accurate.
The danger is the mail-in ballot. You don’t think a lot of these millions of illegals aren’t going to vote?
Yet where is there any evidence that a "yuge and beautiful" ballot harvesting program is being put into place by Trump or the RNC? It needs to be on the ground running now to be effective.
The Media is run by Democrats. Trump will win if less people believe the Media.
No, it’s Trump’s to have stolen from him, again.
And just like 2020, no leftist judge will allow any election challenges to go forward. All the Dems have to do is get the "points on the board" via cheat-by-mail-in ballots, and the court cases will be stalled for years.
And what has been done about cheat-by-mail-in ballots since 2020? Absolutely nothing. They were used in 2022 to cheat Kari Lake. RINOs are fine with Democrats cheating against MAGA candidates, which is why Republican-controlled state legislatures are doing nothing to ensure election integrity.
True, and the sick thing that will be is that those “oddities” will all be known but nobody better say a word about it or they will be prosecuted.
I hope this doesn’t happen but the democrats have shown no signs of becoming good people.
anyone who talks about “a certain poll” and not the average of all polls is pushing an agenda or is just stupid or dumb.
The fact is Trump is leading by BIG margins in more than enough swing states to win.
Arizona - Trump leads by an average of 5.5
Nevada - Trump leads by an average of 7.7
Michigan - Trump leads by an average of 3.6
North Carolina - Trump leads by an average of 5.7
Georgia - Trump leads by an average of 6.5
That is more than enough needed to win right there
But there is also the actual swing states in this race
Pennsylvania - Biden leads by an average of .8
Wisconsin - Trump leads by an average of 1
But neither of those is necessary. Trump could afford to lose both and still win because of his big numbers in the other states.
On average Trump is running nearly 10 points ahead of where he was in 2020 in all of these states. Because Biden was LEADING in the polls by several points in all of those states before! Biden is in big trouble and the reason you are not hearing serious talk about replacing him is that all other possibilities poll WORSE than Biden!
I have Trump at a guaranteed 268 on 270towin
(you are forgetting about Nevada)
But you are correct he needs either Wisconsin -10, MI 16 or PA-20
OR
the extra district in Nevada or Maine for the tie
Good post—the numbers look good.
Imho every Freeper needs to take a deep breath and read Sun Tzu’s The Art of War for March reading.
Then memorize Alinsky’s Rules for Radicals
Why?
Because..we need to avoid two opposite traps.
(1) Overconfidence and complacency.
(2) Excessive fear of Democratic cheating.
Since number two is the most common fear around here I want to comment on it.
Can the Deep State cheat? Yes they can.
Can the Deep State cheat enough to overcome any lead no matter how large? Yes they can.
The question then is not can they cheat but will they cheat—and how much are they willing to cheat.
What matters are the key states. The Democrats steal every election they can in my state of CT but we do not count—there is no chance President Trump can win my state.
The focus needs to be very specific—on those key states. What steps, if any, have been taken to mitigate the risk of cheating in those specific states?
Locals have that information—they should share.
Those kinds of posts are a lot more helpful than the “we are doomed, the Deep State cheats” posts.
The only state I can think of that Trump won in 16 that he could not win in 2024 will be PA, and that’s because NOTHING has been done to curb the fraud.. the PA GOP was an active participant in the 2020 theft and has no intention of doing anything to prevent it from happening again.
WI and MI both made structural changes, and had multiple lawsuits determine a lot of the crap that went on in 2020 was indeed illegal, even though the mainstream press won’t mention any of it.
HOwever even PA the margin is getting to the point where fraud may not even be able to make it up, especially if the numbers keep going the way they are.
Latest polls show Trump up 5 or so in the state.
Remember, Trump never led the polling in 2016 or 2020 nationally or in the swing states...
He is up nationally and in ever single swing state, the average overpolling of Biden was something like 4+ points in the 2020 polls. Meaning if those trends were to continue in 2016, Trump is up 9 in PA currently.
If things remain on the current trend, dems are going to be playing defense in states that they generally don’t have to worry about. However as the election nears I would expect things to shift some, hard to see how Biden keeps sliding all the way to election, but we shall see.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Trump will not be inaugurated January 2025. You can take that to the bank.
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