Posted on 06/01/2010 6:09:32 PM PDT by LibWhacker
I was going to wait to write about this, but Im getting a lot of emails about it, so Ill say something now, and followup when I get more information.
The story:
BABloggee Alereon (and many others) sent me to an interesting site: Life After the Oil Crash Forum a forum that apparently has a lot of doomsday-type scuttlebutt posted to it.
An anonymous poster there says he has heard that the star Betelgeuse is about to go supernova, maybe as soon as a few weeks:
I was talking to my son last week (he works on Mauna Kea), and he mentioned some new observations (that will no doubt get published eventually) of Beetlejuice; its no longer round. This is a huge star, and when it goes, it will be at least as bright as that 1054 supernova except that this one is 520 light years away, not 6,300 [...]
When it collapses, it will be at least as bright as the full moon, and maybe as bright as the sun. For six weeks. So the really lucky folks (for whom Betelgeuse is only visible at night) will get 24 hour days, everybody else will get at least some time with two suns in the sky. The extra hour of light from daylight savings time wont burn the crops, but this might. Probably, all well get is visible light (not gamma rays or X-rays), so it shouldnt be an ELE. Its sure gonna freak everyone out, though ..
Then it will form a black hole, but were too far away for that to matter.
The buzz is that this is weeks/months away, not the any time in the next thousand years thats in all the books.
The basic takeaway:
OK, folks, first: when news like this comes from an unnamed source on some random forum, and that source is not even a primary one, and that secondary source quoted is also unnamed, and that person heard it from a third party that is also unnamed well, oddly enough my skeptic alarm bell in my head rings loudly enough that my eardrums explode outward in every direction at the speed of light.
I hope Im being clear here.
The first important thing to note here is that if Betelgeuse explodes, were in no danger at all. Its too far away to hurt us. Got that? Its the most important thing to remember here, because Im quite sure this story will get wildly exaggerated as it gets repeated.
So, whats the deal with Betelgeuse? What is it, will it explode, and if so, when?
The details:
Betelgeuse is one of the brightest stars in the sky. Thats because its an intrinsically luminous star, and one thats relatively close by. By luminous, I mean something like 100,000 times that of the Sun, and by close I mean roughly 600 light years away if not more. Thats 6 quadrillion kilometers, or almost 4 quadrillion miles. In other words, quite a hike.
Betelgeuse is a red supergiant. It has a mass of something like 20 times the Suns, and is near the end of its life. When it dies, it will explode as a supernova, a titanic event that is among the most violent in the Universe. For details on how this happens, read this essay I wrote about it.
Its hard to know just when a star will explode when youre on the outside. Betelgeuse might go up tonight, or it might not be for 100,000 years. Were just not sure.
Betelgeuse isnt round, and its shrinking!
In the bulletin board post, he talks about the star not being round. Its unclear, but it sounds like hes referring to observations which show that there is a big plume coming from the surface of Betelgeuse. That was exciting news when it was released, but not hugely surprising; stars are active, and massive stars even more so. Also, note that those "new" observations are a year old!
That image above is from even earlier, and shows a Hubble observation of Betelgeuse taken in 2005. Note here that the star doesnt look round, but thats an illusion. The image shows a hot spot in Betelgeuses swollen atmosphere, and that makes it look like a bump is hanging of the side. In reality, thats just because of the way the image is printed, and isnt an actual physical bump. But the hot spot (probably due to a big ol bubble of hot gas rising near the surface) in itself shows that things on the star change all the time; just recently two such spots were found.
The post also talks about Betelgeuse shrinking. That claim is from observations made over the course of many years. Those data indicate the star is shrinking, but its unclear what they mean. While it may mean the star is in fact shrinking, starspots (sunspots on another star) may be fooling us, for example. Also, red supergiants arent like marbles, with a clean, sharp surface. They are balls of gas, extended and bloated, so there is no real surface. Its therefore entirely possible the astronomers arent even really measuring the surface of the star at all, and its just the highly extended atmosphere thats changing.
Surface tension, rotten to the core
The point Im making is that a lot of stuff can happen on the surface of the star that has nothing to do with the core. Since its the core that generates the stars energy and eventually causes it to explode, whats happening on the surface is not an indication of any impending explosion.
Mind you, the surface and the core do "talk" to each other, though slowly. As the core changes, that information does leak to the surface, but it takes centuries. Until, that is, the core collapses. When that happens, the shock wave takes hours or days to get to the surface, and the star explodes. But thats hardly a slow event taking decades! So any changes we see happening now probably have little to do with whats happening hundreds of millions of kilometers deep in the star.
Also, its been known for a long time that Betelgeuse is a variable star; its light output changes. This shrinking may just be a part of that natural cycle, and again no indication of an explosion.
Having said all that, Ill note that someday, Betelgeuse will explode. Thats for certain! But its also way too far away to hurt us. A supernova has to be no farther than about 25 light years away to be able to fry us with light or anything else, and Betelgeuse is 25 times that distance (which means its power to hurt us is weakened by over 600x). Its the wrong kind of star to explode as a gamma-ray burst, so Im not worried about that either.
At that distance, itll get bright, about as bright as the full Moon. Thats pretty bright! Itll hurt your eyes to look at it, but thats about it. The original post says it may get as bright as the Sun, but thats totally wrong. It wont even get 1/100,000th that bright. Still bright, but its not going to cook us. Even if it were going to explode soon. Which it almost certainly isnt.
Conclusion:
So my personal opinion is that this is just another breathless rumor of astronomical doomsday that we get every couple of years. Even if any of the science of it is right, it doesnt mean Betelgeuse is about to explode any day now. And since this is a rumor three times removed, I dont put any stock in it. Ill wait until I hear from named scientists with published or publishable data before I start to wonder if the star is about to blow.
And if and when it does explode, it cant hurt us. Someday it will maybe not for a hundred thousand years, but someday and every astronomer on the planet hopes it happens in their lifetime! It will be a scientific bonanza unlike any ever seen.
And for those looking for Beetlejuice, he is at the top of Orion.
There hasn’t been a supernova seen in this galaxy since about the time of Sir Issac Newton.
Cool suit.
So, is it going to blow in weeks, thus us not notice it for 510 years or did she blow 510 years ago, less a couple of weeks?
I missed that one, anyone else catch it?
“So, whats the deal with Betelgeuse? What is it, will it explode, and if so, when?”
December 21, 2012.
My sources say that it went supernova 518 years ago and we will see it at it’s strongest on Dec 12, 2012.
I was wondering that too... If we see the star blow at this very moment it means the event occurred long ago and the light from it is just reaching our viewing limit now.
*bookmark*
Super Nova
You must have been holed up inside some cave posting on FR.
The Last Supernova: 400-Year-Old Explosion Imaged
By Robert Roy Britt
Senior Science Writer
posted: 06 October, 2004
12:01 p.m. ET
"Four hundred years ago this week, a previously unseen star suddenly appeared in the night sky. Discovered on Oct. 9, 1604, it was brighter than all other stars...."
Like I'm glad like you wrote this Phil because I meet people, "roughly" I dunno maybe 8 or 9 like, who are concerned about this and like what a real scientists with like, you know, hard facts and who is able to write good English to explain to us, like, if there is a problem or not and "roughly" what might happen like.
Oh yeah, what about Chevy Nova SS?
It is good that they can see the bulge. That should indicate the poles aren't pointed at us, and we shouldn't fry like bacon in a cheap aluminum pan.
The author misses some facts. It's not directly the distance to the star that matters. It's where it's pointed that determines where the mass extinction event occurs. Not being pole on to it is a Good Thing(tm).
/johnny
Beautiful write-up. Even given all the caveats, I still have to say that it would be awe-inspiring if it actually blew within our lifetimes.
I heard that Chevy sold the dies to south america and they continue to build it, but they had do change the name. No va, means no go in espanol.
Bada bing. I'll be here all week, try the veal.
/johnny
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.